学生贷款成美国年轻一代不可承受之重

    毕业季即将到来。过去，这些20多岁、前途光明的年轻人在告别校园生活后的一些年里，往往会开始贷款购买汽车、住房这些标志着成家立业的东西。是的，很多人还有大学贷款要还，但正是因为上了大学，这些人才对银行和贷款机构颇具吸引力。通常，他们一生会赚更多的钱，贷款给他们似乎是安全的抉择。

    或许今天依然如此，但时代已经变了。曾被视为优质贷款的大学贷款随着总体规模膨胀到如今这么庞大的规模，它在很多时候已变成了负累。

    纽约联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）发布的一份最新研究报告显示， 30岁(首次购房者年龄中值)没有学生贷款记录的人比那些有学生贷款记录的人更有可能获得按揭贷款，是至少十年来第一次出现这样的情况。很多研究显示，美国年轻人不再像过去那样贷款，美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）认为，学生贷款压力可能是主因。

    鉴于美国正在努力从金融危机和随后的经济衰退中复苏，这个话题特别具有重要意义。消费占美国经济很大一部分，而年轻人的消费力自然有助于推动增长等式的这一部分。

    2003年至2009年间，有学生贷款记录的30岁年轻人拥有住房的比例显著高于那些没有此类贷款记录者。经济繁荣时期，这个差距进一步扩大，2008年达到了4个百分点的峰值。但所有这些在经济衰退中都改变了。美国住房拥有比例全面下降，有学生贷款的人下降得更快。美国购房成本最低的2012年，有学生贷款负担的人拥有住房比例比没有学生贷款的人低近两个百分点。

    确实，美国住房市场还没有完全从造成2007年房价大跌的创纪录止赎中恢复过来。大学贷款负担也对美国汽车行业造成了冲击。奇怪的是，与此同时，从通用汽车（General Motors）到丰田（Toyota）等众多汽车公司却都宣布美国市场销量创下了数年新高。和购房一样，有学生贷款的人获批汽车贷款的概率低于没有学生贷款的人。

    所有这些都反映了大学毕业生对于就业前景的感觉。经济下滑时期，就业市场上压力最大的是年轻人。但最近这次经济衰退的后果是，美国经历了70多年来最长的经济低迷期。美国经济政策研究所（Economic Policy Institute）上周发布的一份研究报告显示，当前25岁以下的年轻毕业生失业率为8.8%，而经济状况好很多的2007年，可比失业率仅为5.7%。包括兼职工作的未充分就业率为18.3%，远高于2007年的9.9%。

    经济低迷期毕业，受到的影响是长期的。美国经济政策研究所称，相比毕业时就业行情好的年份，2013届毕业生在未来10-15年赚到的钱可能偏少。

    Graduation season is upon us. It used to be that in the years after hopeful twentysomethings bid farewell to campus life, they'd start borrowing to buy many things typically associated with adulthood -- namely, a car and a home. Many had college loans to repay, but that's partly what made brainy go-getters so attractive to banks and lenders. They typically earn more over a lifetime, so they seemed like a safe bet.

    They may still be, but times have changed. College debt may have once been the good kind of debt, but the scale has grown so big that in many cases it has become more burdensome than helpful.

    For the first time in at least a decade, 30-year-olds -- the median age of first-time home buyers -- with no history of student loans are more likely to have a mortgage than those with debts from school, according to a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Studies have shown young people aren't borrowing as much as they used to, and the Fed says the burden of student debt may be the culprit.

    The topic is especially important as the U.S. struggles to recover from the financial crisis and subsequent recession. Consumption makes up the bulk of the economy, and the spending power of young people has certainly helped drive that part of the growth equation.

    Between 2003 and 2009, home ownership rates were significantly higher for 30-year-olds with a history of school loans vs. those without such debts. The difference widened during the boom years, peaking to 4 percentage points by 2008. That all changed during the recession, however. Home ownership declined across the board but fell faster for those burdened by student loans. By 2012, one of the cheapest times to buy, the home ownership rate for student debtors was almost 2 percentage points lower than those without a history of student debt.

    Indeed, the housing market still hasn't fully recovered from record foreclosures that caused prices to crash in 2007. But the burden of college loans has also hit the auto industry. Oddly enough, it comes at a time when auto companies from General Motors (GM) to Toyota (TM) report some of the strongest U.S. sales in years. As with home ownership, those with student debt are less likely to have a car loan than those non-borrowers.

    All this reflects how college grads feel about their job prospects. During economic downturns, young workers usually feel the brunt of it, but the aftermath of the latest recession has been the longest period of economic weakness the U.S. has seen in more than seven decades. For young graduates under 25 years old today, the unemployment rate is 8.8%, compared with 5.7% when economic times were much better in 2007, according to a report released last week by the Economic Policy Institute. The underemployment rate, which includes those working part-time, is 18.3% compared with 9.9% in 2007.

    Graduating in a bad economy has long-lasting impacts. Over the next 10 to 15 years, graduates of the class of 2013 will likely earn less than if they had graduated when jobs were more plentiful, the EPI says.