科技巨头的技术老化难题
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像IBM一样，近几年来，微软也在准备推动企业软件市场向云技术领域转变。微软的商业软件部门目前是为微软公司创收最多、同时也是营业利润最大的部门，它的产品就包括了微软的“万年摇钱树”Microsoft Office软件的云计算版。上个季度，该部门的收入增长了8%。 自上周发布财报以来，微软的股价已经上涨了7%，尽管有些分析师考虑到PC市场的不确定性，因而对微软股票走势持悲观态度，但也有一些分析师表示乐观。比如雷蒙•詹姆斯就表示：“微软总体机会的积极面主要围绕云计算、移动和Windows 8。” 由于英特尔第一季度的财报稍稍低于分析师的预期，因此，其股价一开始稍有下跌，但后来又上涨了6%。PC芯片业务仍然贡献了这家公司64%的收入，不过这个数字比起两年前的69%还是有所下降。与此同时，英特尔也积极进军其它业务，比如用于支持数据中心的服务器芯片以及其它软件和服务，以提高芯片业务的业绩。 同时，英特尔也在推动从传统PC芯片业务到云计算业务的转型——也就是推出能够支持数据中心的芯片。因为对于云世界来说，数据中心并不是昙花一现的事物。 英特尔CEO保罗•欧特里尼在公司最近的一次收益电话会议上发表了或许是他任内的最后一次讲话。他强调，英特尔公司仍然处于半导体设计创新的前沿，英特尔生产的22纳米处理器已经出货了1亿台，而且英特尔还在集中精力开发14纳米的芯片。虽然现在英特尔目前关注的是给速度更快的超极本提供更好的芯片，但超极本现在也是一个日益萎缩的市场。 尽管英特尔采取了新的芯片架构，有些分析师对英特尔过于依赖日益萎缩的PC市场还是表示了担心。在一份报告中，加拿大皇家资本（RBC Capital）的分析师道格•弗里德曼认为，英特尔的这些新设计“能否在PC市场上推动包括触屏和超极本在内的新一轮复兴”还是未知数。同时英特尔很可能会通过优化成本结构和分红等措施稳固股价。 科技界中存在这样一种矛盾：如果说主宰了一种业务的核心领域就算成功的话，那么这成功真是来得快去得也快。有些公司随着PC和服务器市场的崛起而崛起，之后可能拥有了巨大的市值和丰厚的现金。但是，一旦这个市场衰落了，这些公司也必然成为被殃及的池鱼。从IBM、微软和英特尔的案例上看，这种两难局面没有任何一个简单的解决办法。每家公司都在努力寻找一个属于自己的、不完美的答案。（财富中文网） 译者：朴成奎 |
Like IBM, Microsoft has been for years preparing for an enterprise software market moving into the cloud. The business software division, currently the largest in both revenue and operating profit, includes enterprise software like Office 365, the cloud-based version of that longtime cash cow, Microsoft Office. The business division saw revenue grow 8% last quarter. Microsoft's stock has risen 7% since its earnings last week, and while some analysts remain bearish on the stock because of uncertainties in the PC market, others remained optimistic. Raymond James cited "the positive of Microsoft's overall opportunity around cloud, mobile, and Windows 8." Intel's stock initially dropped on an earnings report that fell slightly short of analyst estimates but has since rallied 6%. PC chips still account for 64% of Intel's revenues, although that figure has declined from 69% two years ago as Intel has pushed into new businesses like server chips powering data centers and software and services to enhance the chips' performance. In its way, Intel is also steering its business away from chips in traditional PCs and toward the cloud -- that is, chips that power the data centers that are the not-so-ephemeral substance of the cloud. As CEO Paul Otellini stressed in what may be his final comments as CEO in an Intel earnings call, the company remains at the forefront of innovation in semiconductor design, with 100 million 22-nanometer processors shipped so far and Intel focused on making 14-nanometer chips. But Intel is focused on making better chips for faster ultrabooks, which is still a declining market. Some analysts remained concerned about Intel's reliance on a declining PC market, despite its new chip architectures. In a report, Doug Freedman at RBC Capital said he was skeptical such new designs "will drive a revival of newer initiatives including touch and ultrabook in the PC marketplace." Instead, Intel is likely to keep shoring up its stock with improving cost structures and paying dividends. One of the dilemmas of tech is that success -- if defined by dominating a core area of business -- is so fleeting. The same companies that rode the rise of the PC and server markets may enjoy large market caps and ample cash, but they're also chained to those same markets in decline. As IBM, Microsoft, and Intel show, there is no single, simple answer to that dilemma. Each company is struggling to find its own imperfect answer. |
