如果上市，阿里巴巴值一千亿美元

    现实情况下，会有更多因素影响阿里巴巴的市值。马云必须抓住股市周期与技术周期的时机。阿里巴巴有许多外国投资者，因此，它最有可能在海外市场上市。而在外国市场，股票投资者往往会受到自身对中国的法规、经济与会计实务看法的影响。百度（Baidu）、人人（Renren）和新浪（Sina）等公司的估值所表现出的摇摆不定通常很难用各公司基本业务的表现来解释。

    估值变化很快。2010年底，Facebook在融资时的估值为500亿美元，而在2012年IPO时则达到了1,040亿美元；但目前，它的股价仅有当初估值的三分之二。最近，雅虎（Yahoo）将手头持有的阿里巴巴股份中的一半出售给了阿里巴巴公司，交易对公司市值的认定是400亿美元。然而，与一家陷入困境的美国公司进行双边谈判跟上市比起来完全是两码事。

    此外，互联网公司的性质决定了它内在的不稳定性。超强的盈利能力也会吸引超强的竞争对手，而且颠覆性技术可能在突然之间就取代了业已成熟的模式。当年的网景（Netscape）和微软（Microsoft）就充分证明，想象中不可动摇的市场地位可能瞬间就会易手。如果公司估值能够达到十二位数，上市就宜早不宜迟。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    In reality, many more factors will affect Alibaba's magic number. Ma will need to time the stock market cycle, but also the tech cycle. With many foreign backers, Alibaba will most likely need to list on foreign markets, where stock buyers will be influenced by what they think of China's regulation, economy and accounting practices. Valuations for companies like Baidu, Renren and Sina show gyrations not always explained by the performance of their underlying businesses.

    Valuations change quickly. Facebook's went from $50 billion in its fundraising at the end of 2010 to $104 billion at its IPO in 2012; the company now trades at just two-thirds that value. When Yahoo (YHOO) recently sold half its Alibaba stake back to the company, the deal valued the company at just $40 billion. But a bilateral negotiation by with a troubled U.S. company is very different than a stock market listing.

    Besides, internet companies are inherently volatile. Super profitability attracts super competition, and disruptive technologies can take even established models by surprise. Netscape and Microsoft both showed how supposedly unassailable market positions can be lost as well as won. If a twelve-digit valuation is within reach, it makes sense for Alibaba to open the cave sooner rather than later.