灯泡大战谁胜出

    即便2007年《美国能源独立和安全法案》继续促使白炽灯从商店下架，但白炽灯也不会完全停止供应。首先，许多消费者早就知道了这项禁令，因此已经提前买入、囤积了大量白炽灯。斯莫尔伍德在接受《财富》杂志（Fortune）采访时说：“我们不会积极更换灯泡。我们通常是非常被动地更换灯泡，也就是说，等到灯泡坏了才会更换。考虑到这一点，未来五年，我们会看到，节能灯、甚至白炽灯基本上仍然在使用——除非大家手头的灯泡都用完了，需要购买新的灯泡。但这种事是不会发生的。”

    LED技术的市场普及步伐一直较为缓慢。许多人可能把LED灯看作是某种新产品，但其实这项技术已经存在了100多年了，只是在20世纪60年代后期由于成本下降才发现了商业用途。过去40多年才使得这项技术终于为家庭使用做好了准备。

    现在，由于成本较为低廉、而且应用更加广泛，LED可能促使人们重新认识它。虽然节能灯面临着上文提到的种种环保问题，但还有其他一些问题导致LED技术未能得到广泛采纳。虽然LED灯能够节约能源，但它售价较高，促使消费者继续选购白炽灯。而批评者指出，节能灯发出的光线往往不像他们心爱的白炽灯那样柔和——白炽灯已为家庭提供了100多年的照明。

    现在，LED可能会改变这种局面，因为它们可以带来许多优势，包括更低的运行成本和更长的使用寿命。而且通常触感凉爽的LED灯泡在其他一些方面也可以被视为“酷”。IHS iSuppli照明市场分析师斯莫尔伍德说：“因为LED的确可以让人们在营造氛围方面更有文章可做，人们对于照明的整个观念也会发生变化。"LED有很多种玩法，显得很酷。消费者的观念可能也会因此而发生改变，尽管这一点通常很难做到。”（财富中文网）

    译者：iDo98

    Incandescents won't simply shut off even as the 2007 energy act continues to pull bulbs off store shelves. For one thing many consumers, anticipating the ban, bought up stocks of the old bulbs. "We don't change light bulbs in what could be called a proactive way," Smallwoods tells Fortune. "We change our bulbs in a very reactive way, when they burn out. With that in mind we'll be seeing CFL and even incandescent bulbs very much in use in the next five years – unless everyone runs out and buys new bulbs, and that isn't going to happen."

    The technology has been slow in gaining traction. Many people might think of LED bulbs as something new, in fact this technology has been around for more than 100 years but only found commercial applications in the late 1960s as costs fell. It has taken the last 40-some years for the technology to be finally ready for the home.

    Now thanks to lower costs and greater applications, LED could have people taking a new look at it. While CFLs were met with those aforementioned environmental concerns, they had other issues that kept the technology from being embraced. Although they offered energy savings, the high costs up front kept consumers buying incandescents, while detractors noted that the light from the CFLs tended not to be as soft as that of the beloved bulb that has lit up homes for more than 100 years.

    Now LEDs could change that as they offer a plethora of advantages, including low operating cost and long lifespan. The bulbs, which are also typically cool to the touch, could be seen as "cool" in other ways. "The whole mindset of light could change, as LED really allows people do much more in terms of ambiance," says iSuppli's Smallwood. "LED can be played with new ways that makes them cool. This could change the mentality of the consumer, which is typically hard to do."