三星进军5G无线网络技术

    覆盖范围不是唯一拖累5G发展的问题，另一个问题是什么？频谱资源有限，这在美国已经是一个相当严重的问题。“如果由于网络负载饱和而变慢，从而拖累5G，会怎样呢？”席尔瓦问道，“美国是否能提供更多光谱以满足数据使用需求还是个问题。另外一个问题是运营商的流量限制，如果能在几分钟内接收一部电影，消费者将很快用完流量额度。”

    要使5G成为现实，这只是其中几个需要解决的问题。更大的难题在于目前还没有既定标准，即使着手制定，也不是一朝一夕的事。“无论是有线或无线，技术人员都在不断努力提升宽带速度，”席尔瓦说道，“但这不是动动手指就能解决的。我们也不知道其他公司的蓝图上有怎样的规划。在商定标准之前，仍有许多方面需要充实完善，许多尚未到位的内容要及时敲定。”

    另一方面，这也使得2020年这一截止期显得不那么现实。不过，全球移动通信系统（GSM）于1990年推出后，2003年便出现了3G，2009年4G也随之到来。从某些方面说，这一技术的开发已经出现了一定的竞争态势，中国已成立由政府牵头的“IMT-2020 (5G) 推进组”，专门致力于5G研发，而欧盟委员会也宣布计划于2013年投资5000万欧元，以期在2020年将5G推向市场。根据这个时间表，以及全球厂商对这一技术的关注，5G很可能在10年内实现，但问题犹存。

    “许多国家的问题是，连推出4G都面临一些宏观层面的难题，”格林森补充道，“几年内可能还无法将5G投入商用，不过目前一切还只是推测。因为我们无法预知今后10年的经济形势和技术发展。还有太多问题仍待解决。”（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Range won't be the only issue that could be a stalling point for 5G. The other? Spectrum limitations, already a significant problem in the United States. "What happens if 5G is compromised because of slowdowns due to network capacity?" asks Silva. "There is still the question as whether the United States can make available more spectrum to accommodate the data usage. There is also the issue of how carriers today have data caps, and if streaming a movie in a few minutes is an option, consumers could reach those data caps rather quickly."

    Those are just a few problems that will need to be addressed as 5G becomes a reality. The bigger issue is that there is still no set standard and won't likely be one for some time. "There are constant efforts to make broadband faster whether it is through the wirelines or wireless," says Silva. "But you can't just snap your fingers and make it happen. We also don't know what is on the drawing boards of other companies. Until the standards are agreed upon. there is still a lot to flesh out, with a lot of moving parts that will play out in time."

    On the one hand this makes a possible deadline of 2020 seem unlikely, but GSM came out in the 1990s, following by 3G in 2003, with 4G arriving in 2009. In some ways there is already a race in progress to develop the technology, as China has established a government-led "IMT-2020 (5G) Promotion Group" specifically for 5G research, while the European Commission has also announced plans to invest 50 million euros in 2013 to bring 5G to market by 2020. Given this timetable, as well as the international interest in the technology, it is quite likely that 5G could arrive in the next decade, but issues do remain.

    "The problem for many countries is that on the macro level there are still difficulties in rolling out 4G," adds Gleeson. "A commercial launch of 5G thus might not come for years; it is just speculation at the moment. For one we don't know how the economy will fare or how the technology will actually develop over the next 10 years. There are just too many unanswered questions."