雅虎不应收购Tumblr的五大理由

    现在看来，雅虎（Yahoo）以11亿美元天价收购轻博客网站Tumblr已成定局。

    或许我们不应该感到惊讶，因为几天前雅虎的财务总监肯•古德曼已经表示，雅虎需要再次变“酷”。但是股东们投资雅虎股票是为了拿分红，不是为了更“酷”。雅虎员工的资产净值也有一大部分与股票挂钩。雅虎收购Tumblr的交易可能看起来很吸引眼球，但是它是否会带来正面收益？

    我相信答案是否定的。

    诚然，仅从数学和公司财务的角度看，雅虎收购Tumblr可以构成一笔很好的投资。雅虎是一个拥有280亿美元市值的媒体公司，同时又把重点放在了展示广告上。Tumblr则拥有大量网页点击率，靠做展示广告赚钱的时机已经成熟了。由此看来，收购Tumblr“钱景可期”。

    根据Quantcast公司的数据，Tumblr每年在美国可以获得600亿次的网页点击量。如果我们不考虑增长和国外点击量的因素，那么Tumblr至少要有将每1000次点击量转化为1.79美元的净收益（RPM）的能力，它的点击量才能带来每年1.08亿美元的收益。如果再带入某些数据，1.79美元的RPM预设回报率门槛可能降得更低，这笔收购也就更顺理成章了。

    • 广告网络可以以1.79美元的价格填补这些广告位，还有一些搞笑、实用或者漂亮的Tumblr博客可以以10倍的价格直接卖给广告客户。

    • 如果算上国外浏览量，Tumblr的规模会增大一倍，届时Tumblr的预设回报率门槛会降到0.89美元。

    • 9.8%的加权平均资本成本有些高了。如果我们转而使用4.5%的无风险折现率，那么Tumblr的美国RPM预设回报率将下降到0.81美元，包含国际浏览量的RPM预设回报率将下降到0.41美元。

    • 雅虎首席运营官亨利克•卡斯特罗是一个聪明老练的展示广告专家，他知道怎样把网络点击量转化成现金。[我在谷歌（Google）工作多年，虽然卡斯特罗一向吸引媒体关注的原因是他那不经意的搞笑以及他的薪资政策，但他作为企业高管的水平却是不可否认的，甚至是受到了低估。]

    • Tumblr很可能会继续保持增长。在不久的将来，它是值得人们选择的一个博客平台，而且它的博主建立的能够赚钱的博客页面越多，它的RPM预设回报率门槛就越低。

    It looks like Yahoohas offered to buy Tumblr for the sticker-shock price of $1.1 billion.

    Maybe we shouldn't be surprised, since just a few days ago Yahoo CFO Ken Goldman spoke about the need for the company (YHOO) to be "cool" again. But Yahoo shareholders invest for returns, not for cool. Yahoo employees have a big chunk of their net worth tied to their stock. It may be sexy for Yahoo to buy Tumblr, but will it have a positive return?

    I believe the answer is no.

    To be sure, the power of math and corporate finance can build a good investment case for Yahoo/Tumblr. Yahoo is a $28 billion media business with cash to spend and a substantial focus on display advertising. Tumblr represents a ton of page views ripe for display monetization. It's a bulk play -- Tumblr adds mass.

    According to Quantcast, Tumblr gets about 60 billion U.S. page views per year. If we assume no growth and no international, those pageviews will spin off $108 million per year if a net $1.79 RPM (revenue per thousand pageviews) is achieved. There are data points that can make that $1.79 hurdle rate much lower and strongly favor the acquisition:

    • Ad networks can fill display units at $1.79 and there are some hilarious, useful and beautiful tumblrs for which direct sold brand advertisers will pay 10x the remnant rate.

    • International doubles Tumblr's size. The international page views reduce the RPM hurdle rate to $0.89.

    • The WACC of 9.8% feels high. If we instead use the risk-free rate of 4.5%, then the U.S.-only RPM hurdle rate drops to $0.81, the international-included RPM hurdle rate drops to $0.41.

    • Yahoo COO Henrique de Castro is a smart and experienced display advertising executive who knows how to turn pages into dollars. (disclaimer: I worked in HDC's org at Google for many years and although he draws media attention for his unintentional comedy and pay package - his skills as an executive are undeniable and underestimated.)

    • Tumblr is likely to keep growing. It is the blogging platform of choice for the immediate future and the more monetizable pages its bloggers create, the lower the RPM hurdle rate.