雅虎的新收购并不能让它重新变“酷”

    坦率地说，Tumblr的确有一些令人印象深刻的用户统计数据。comScore表示，截至4月，Tumblr拥有1.08亿博客账号，独立访问用户高达1.17亿。而测评网站Quantcast的数据显示，Tumblr的每月访问量高达160亿次。但不幸的是，Tumblr并未发布任何分析报告，甚至在自家博客上也看不到。所以，我们真的很难确定Tumblr的社群如今到底发展得如何，到底哪些类型的轻博客在吸引最多的用户，产生最大的收益。Tumblr在时尚界的粉丝很多，因为用户能很便捷地发布和转帖照片，虽然Pintrest等竞争对手在此方面更胜一筹，但Tumblr也做得不错了。

    雅虎股东应该担心的，是Tumblr向来不善于利用其网站内容赚钱。比如2011年纽约时装周期间，Tumblr试图让广告商花15-35万美元在横幅广告上，这一荒唐之举在整个广告界掀起轩然大波。此外，Tumblr还试图为该网站上热门的时尚博主拉皮条，广告主只要掏1万美金，就能与这些博主们独处。而最麻烦的是，Tumblr在移动广告领域还没有任何成果。该公司上个月才刚开始在移动网络上做广告，而且还是以内部测试的形式。

    Tumblr的风险投资方包括红杉资本（Union Square）、星火资本（Spark Capital）、合广投资（Union Square Ventures）以及格雷洛克合伙公司（Greylock Partners）。为何Tumblr一开始利用其内容赚钱，上述投资方就同意出售该公司？要知道，Tumblr网站的页面访问量和独立访客数量都相当高，其钱途看起来一片大好，不是吗？这个嘛，其实关键是看广告商是否想与Tumblr扯上关系。事实上，Tumblr有一个秘密，该网站是一个虚拟仓库，里面色情照片堆积如山。Tumblr允许用户跟踪并创建特定的色情流派。Tumblr中大量色情图片似乎是非法截取自其它网站，其发布并未经版权持有人许可。

    色情图片吸引了大量眼球，但广告商拒绝与之扯上关系。目前尚不清楚雅虎将如何处置Tumblr上这些色情图片。假如将其取缔，Tumblr的页面访问量和访客数量都可能下降。而假如保留这些图片，那么该公司可能将面临众多版权官司，并使得广告商们纷纷离去。当然，谷歌（Google）当初收购YouTube时也曾面临一些类似的挑战，后来这些问题差不多都解决了。任何大手笔的收购都存在风险。

    最重要的是，雅虎在确定该交易的支付方式时本该聪明点。它应该以现金加分期授予的股票进行支付，以规避风险。当初Facebook豪掷10亿美元收购Instagram时就是这么干的。在那笔成为新闻头条的交易中，Facebook支付了3亿美元现金，另外7亿美元是以Facebook的股票进行支付——去年Facebook上市后，其股票价值已经大幅缩水。现金加股票支付比全部支付现金要聪明，因为这使得Facebook的成功与资产价值挂钩。

    梅耶尔多次谈到她想使雅虎再度成为一家创新性公司。收购Tumblr很可能最终将令梅耶尔大失所望。目前，股东们仍相信梅耶尔手里还有从谷歌带来的万灵药，能帮助雅虎扭转局面。但梅耶尔不应该再让股东们久等。（财富中文网）

    译者：项航

    To be fair, Tumblr does have some impressive user statistics. Around 117 million visitors stumbled upon one of Tumblr's 108 million blogs in April, according to comScore. That added up to 16 billion monthly page views according to Quantcast. Unfortunately, Tumblr doesn't release any analytics, even to its own blogs, so it is really tough to figure out how widespread the community is at this point or what genre of microblogs command the most attention and value. It has a strong following in the fashion community because it is pretty easy to post and repost pictures -- not as easily as some of its competitors, like Pintrest, but easy nonetheless.

    What should disturb Yahoo shareholders is the company's track record when it comes to trying to monetize its content. For example, in 2011 at New York's Fashion Week, Tumblr tried to get advertisers to spend a ridiculous $150,000 to $350,000 on banner ads, causing an uproar across the advertising community. It also tried to pimp out popular Tumblr fashion bloggers, offering advertisers special alone time with them for a mere $10,000. Most troubling? Tumblr's track record when it comes to mobile advertising: It has none. The company only started advertising on the mobile web last month in a limited beta test.

    Why would Tumblr's venture funders, which include the likes of Sequoia Capital, Spark Capital, Union Square Ventures, and Greylock Partners, agree to sell the company the second it started to monetize its content? With all those impressive stats on page views and unique viewers it sounds like Tumblr could be a goldmine, right? Well, that all depends on whether advertisers actually want to be associated with Tumblr. Indeed Tumblr has a secret -- it is a virtual warehouse for mountains and mountains of porn. Tumblr allows people to follow and create very specific prurient subgenres. A great deal of Tumblr porn appears to be illegally lifted from other websites and posted without the permission of the copyright holders.

    Porn draws in a lot of eyeballs, but advertisers refuse to be associated with it. It is unclear what Yahoo will do with all the Tumblr porn. Take it away and chances are those page views and visitor numbers will fall. Keep them up and the company will be exposing itself to a number of copyright lawsuits and will cause advertisers to run as fast as they can in the other direction. Of course, Google's acquisition of YouTube presented some similar challenges that have, more or less been worked out. Any big acquisition carries risks.

    The bottom line? Yahoo could have been smarter about how it paid for the deal. It should have hedged its bets and paid with a mix of cash and stock that vested overtime. That's what Facebook (FB) did when it acquired Instagram for the headline number of $1 billion. It paid with $300 million in cash and $700 million in Facebook stock -- stock which has collapsed in value since the company went public last year. That was smarter than paying all cash because it linked Facebook's success to the value of the asset.

    Mayer has talked a great deal of how she wants to make Yahoo an innovative company again. This move could very well end up being that smash success she needs. For now, shareholders still believe she has enough of that Google fairy dust in her pocket to turn the company around. But Mayer shouldn't test their patience.