中欧太阳能贸易战得不偿失

    一场围绕太阳能面板的贸易战正在酝酿中，但开战的理由看起来却站不住脚。西方国家的厂商很可能夸大了中国廉价组件对这个行业的健康造成的影响。太阳能面板的利润应该提高，但惩罚性关税加上中国可能发起的反击也许恰恰会削弱太阳能的竞争力。

    欧盟贸易专员上周早些时候宣称，欧盟没有和美国方面就所谓的中国向欧美市场倾销太阳能面板这一贸易纠纷进行协调性解决对话。欧盟需要在6月5号前决定是否效仿美国，对从中国进口的太阳能面板征收惩罚性关税。据称，欧盟贸易专员卡瑞•德古赫特正在考虑对中国太阳能面板征收超过40%的关税。而据欧洲厂商估计，在欧洲市场销售的太阳能面板80%来自中国。美国去年就对中国太阳能面板强制征收过类似的高额关税。

    同时，中国也在反击，威胁要对多晶硅这个仍然由西方国家厂商所控制的太阳能板原材料征收高额进口关税。

    毫无疑问，太阳能面板厂商正备受煎熬。据行业研究咨询公司HIS分析，三年前面板制造商的毛利率高达30%。去年年末，由于严重的产能过剩，厂商们无法维持定价能力，被迫亏本出售产品。而中国政府的低息贷款和其他扶持措施也必然使中国厂商在应对压力时能更为轻松。中国厂商也借此机会抢占市场份额。

    但事情没这么简单。首先，自2010年初以来，太阳能面板80%的价格降幅要归功于生产成本的降低。在经历技术创新飞速发展中的行业，亏损和政府扶持是很常见的现象。

    另外，要说到依赖政府，西方国家太阳能面板制造商也绝对不是没有得到政府扶持。如果没有政府为推广太阳能提供的慷慨补贴，这些西方制造商可能现在根本不存在。行业分析师保拉•明兹表示，在这个行业30年的发展历史里，太阳能面板在2004-2008年期间的毛利润率仅仅高于5%。

    一个不盈利的行业是不受欢迎的。但惩罚性关税只会推高各方成本，对任何人都没有好处，因为正是太阳能板制造商的苦苦支撑才有了旺盛的太阳能需求。补贴只是加速了这个趋势。由于整个价值链上的成本降低，即使是没有任何补贴的太阳能，在一些缝隙市场也已经比石化燃料更有竞争力了。更大范围的成本竞争力似乎已经触手可及。

    决策者们需要记住的是，只要灯能亮起来，大多数人不会真的关心电力的来源。煤、石油、天然气以及其他绿色能源才是这场太阳能贸易战的真正赢家。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    A trade war is brewing over solar panels but the casus belli looks shaky. Western manufacturers probably exaggerate the impact of cheap Chinese kit on the industry's health. Panel profits need to rise, but punitive tariffs and possible Chinese retaliation may just make solar energy less competitive.

    Europe's top trade official said earlier this week there were no coordinated talks with the United States to negotiate an end to a trade dispute with China over alleged dumping of solar panels into their respective markets. The EU has until June 5 to decide whether to follow the U.S. by levying punitive tariffs on Chinese panel imports. Trade commissioner Karel de Gucht is said to be mulling duties of more than 40% on Chinese panels, which European manufacturers say account for 80% of European panel sales. The U.S. slapped similarly steep tariffs on Chinese solar panels last year.

    China, meanwhile, threatens duties on polysilicon, the raw material for the panels and a market still dominated by Western manufacturers.

    There's no question that panel-makers are suffering. Three years ago, panel makers' gross margins were 30%, according to IHS, a consultancy. By the end of last year, unable to maintain pricing power because of rampant overcapacity, they were selling their products at a loss. And there is little doubt that cheap credit and other inducements from Beijing have made it easier for Chinese manufacturers to withstand the pressure. They have seized the opportunity to grab market share.

    However, the story is more complicated. To start, falling production costs account for most of the 80% price decline since the beginning of 2010. Losses, and government support, are typical in industries in the midst of rapid technological innovation.

    Also, Western panel-makers are hardly pure when it comes to relying on the government. Without generous subsidies to promote solar power, they would probably not exist at all. In the industry's 30-year history, gross margins on solar panels have only been above 5 percent in the years 2004-2008, according Paula Mints, a solar market analyst.

    An unprofitable industry is undesirable. But punitive duties only push up everyone's costs. That would not serve anyone, since panel-makers' pain has helped support a boom in solar demand. Subsidies have only accelerated the trend. Thanks to falling costs along the whole value chain, even subsidy-free solar is already competitive with fossil fuels in some niche markets, and broader cost-competitiveness seems within reach.

    Policymakers should remember that, as long as the lights come on, most people don't really care where their power comes from. Coal, oil, gas, and rival green energy sources would be the real winners from a solar trade war.