房地产泡沫时期贷款热重现美国

    但我们不太可能知道到底有多少股票抵押贷款用在了其他地方，又有多少被用于提高投资账户杠杆。美国金融业监管局并不跟踪这些贷款的流向。

    而且，很多财务规划师通常也不建议使用保证金贷款，这类贷款比例最近平均约为2%。首先，保证金贷款采用浮动利率。贷款利率会随存款利率变动，而存款利率最近一直在上升。其次，保证金贷款随时可以收回。如果你的股票投资组合价值缩水，经纪公司可以要求你立即偿还保证金贷款，即便你一直按时还款。最后，与房屋抵押贷款不同，股票账户抵押贷款没有税收优势。

    综合上述缺点，越来越多人使用保证金贷款的现象说明当前围绕股市投资至少存在一定的非理性繁荣，即便这种繁荣不会在短期内破灭。“这说明人们又一次忘了市场的波动本质，”宣称自己从不建议使用保证金贷款的佛罗里达州科勒尔盖布尔斯财务规划师哈罗德•伊文斯基说。“我们再一次回到了认为股市只会单边上涨的时候。”（财富中文网）

    译者：老榆木

    But it's impossible to really know how much stock market borrowing is being spent elsewhere, and how much is being used to leverage up investment accounts. FINRA doesn't track where the borrowed money goes.

    What's more, many financial planners generally advise against margin loans, which recently have averaged around 2%. First of all, margin loans have a floating rate, so they will go up with interest rates, which have been rising recently. Second, margin loans are callable. If the value of your stock market portfolio drops, your brokerage firm could require you to pay back your margin loan immediately even if you have never missed a payment. Lastly, unlike borrowing against your house, there's no tax advantage to borrowing against your stock account.

    Stack up all those disadvantages, and the fact that more people are using margin loans must mean there is at least some irrational exuberance going on around stock market investing right now, even if it's not quite going to burst anytime soon. "It just means people have lost touch again with market volatility," says Harold Evensky, a financial planner in Coral Gables, Fla., who says he never recommends margin borrowing. "We're back to thinking stock markets only go up."