双汇收购史密斯菲尔德真相大猜想

    一周前，中国最大的猪肉生产商双汇国际（Shuanghui International）宣布达成协议，将斥资71亿美元（含债务）收购美国最大的猪肉生产商史密斯菲尔德食品公司（Smithfield）。目前市场仍在消化双汇国际这一大手笔之作。这宗交易是迄今为止，中资企业收购美国企业手笔最大的一次，分析师们也提出了收购背后可能涉及的多种原因。有人认为，河南私企双汇通过这次收购交易来扩大自身向高增长市场供应高价优质猪肉的实力，可谓一着妙招。还有人认为，这笔交易的真正目的是为了收购宝贵的养猪技术和猪肉加工技术。更有人担心的，双汇可能通过史密斯菲尔德这个渠道攻入美国市场。

    正如中资企业收购其它美国资产一样，我们也可以从多个视角来看待这笔交易。有人担心这项交易会为中国的不安全食品进入美国超市打开大门，这是可以理解的，不过也是空穴来风，没有根据。除此之外，其它多数说法还是部分触及了交易幕后的核心动机。确实，这次收购将有利于双汇提升向中国市场供应猪肉的实力。不过在这里，我们需要更深度地剖析。去年中国的人均猪肉消费量为85.3磅，高于美国的59.3磅。如果考虑两国人口数量差异（中国和美国人口分别为13.44亿和3.14亿），中国的猪肉需求量还是要比美国高出6倍左右。

    2012年，拿猪的屠宰量来说，史密斯菲尔德约占美国屠宰产能的四分之一，却仅占中国屠宰量的3%。换句话说，双汇或许可以透过史密斯菲尔德现代化、高效安全的养猪场和加工厂采购更多猪肉，但相对于中国市场规模而言，在可预见的未来，史密斯菲尔德能够向中国出口的猪肉量如九牛一毛。

    利用史密斯菲尔德的技术和管理能力说得通吗？理论上讲，这个主张很吸引人。美国猪肉业是高度整合的现代行业，具有一定规模效益。在美国市场销售的猪肉85%都来自规模超过2000头的大型养猪场。这些养猪场采用气候控制技术，相互独立，极大地降低了疾病传播的风险。相比之下，中国猪肉产业很零散，规模小，技术落后。而中国70%的猪肉产自规模在500头或以下、且卫生条件常常很简陋的养猪场。

    然而，像双汇这样的中国猪肉生产商要想转型为史密斯菲尔德这样的企业还面临着两大障碍。一是产权问题。由于土地国有，私有产权在中国没有保障。整合中国养猪业虽然在技术上行得通，但即便对于双汇这样搞实业的企业来说，它也会是一场涉及诸多法律和官僚问题的梦魇。

    第二大阻碍基本上不可逾越。不管采用什么技术来促进中国猪肉业高效运转，但在污染问题普遍的中国几乎不大可能确保饲料安全。

    这也许触及到了双汇收购美国这家标志性食品生产商背后的真正动机。有关这宗交易铺天盖地的媒体报道中所提到的方方面面的因素可能都是双汇所考虑到的问题。不过，里面还有深层次的原因。

    A week after the announcement that Shuanghui International, China's largest pork producer, has struck a deal to purchase Smithfield, the largest U.S. pork producer, for $7.1 billion (including debt), the development is still being digested. Many theories have been advanced to explain the deal -- which is so far the largest acquisition of an American firm by a Chinese company. Some people see this move by Shuanghui, a private firm based in Henan, as a masterstroke to expand its ability to supply a fast-growing market with premium-brand pork at higher prices. Some view the purchase as a means to acquire valuable hog-farming and processing technology. Others worry that Shuanghui might use Smithfield as a channel to sell its products in the U.S.

    As with other Chinese purchases of American assets, this particular deal can be seen from several perspectives. Except for the understandable, but unfounded, fear that this transaction could open the door for unsafe Chinese food to find its way into American supermarkets, most interpretations manage to tell part of the real story. Yes, Shuanghui's acquisition will help increase its ability to supply China's market. But here we need to have some perspective. Per capita consumption of pork in China last year was 85.3 pounds, compared with 59.3 pounds in the U.S. When you factor in the difference in the size of each country's population -- 1.344 billion vs. 314 million -- the Chinese demand for pork is still about six times larger than in the United States.

    In 2012, the number of hogs slaughtered by Smithfield, which has about a quarter of the U.S. slaughter capacity, would account for only 3% of China's slaughtered hogs. In other words, Shuanghui may be able to source more of its pork from Smithfield's modern, efficient, and safe pig farms and processing facilities, but the quantity that can be exported to China in the foreseeable future will be miniscule relative to the size of the Chinese market.

    What about taking advantage of Smithfield's technology and management? On paper, this is an attractive proposition. American pork farming is a consolidated modern industry with economies of scale. Eighty-seven percent of the pork sold in the U.S. is produced on big pig farms with more than 2,000 hogs. Such farms are climate-controlled and self-contained to minimize the spread of disease. By contrast, the Chinese pork industry is fragmented, small-scale, and low-tech. Seventy percent of the pork in China is produced by pig farms with 500 hogs or less. Hygienic conditions are often primitive.

    However, transforming a Chinese pork producer like Shuanghui into a Smithfield faces two difficult hurdles. The first one is property rights. Land is owned by the state, and private property rights are insecure in China. Consolidating the hog industry in China, while technologically feasible, can be a legal and bureaucratic nightmare, even for an entrepreneurial company such as Shuanghui.

    The second hurdle is practically insurmountable. Whatever technology one might want to use to make the Chinese pork industry more efficient, ensuring the safety of the feed will be almost impossible because of widespread pollution in China.

    This touches upon perhaps the real driver behind Shuanghui's acquisition of an iconic American food producer. It may be about all of the things mentioned in the intensive media coverage of the deal. But there is more.