双汇收购史密斯菲尔德真相大猜想

    通过细加分析，我们就应该可以发现，中国环境恶化问题是解释这次收购的关键所在。数年来观察人士历一直试图弄清楚中国经济高速增长下水资源、空气和农田大面积污染所造成的真正后果。分析师们使用了各种预估数据计算污染的经济成本及对居民健康的影响（污染成本预计介于国内生产总值的5%到8%之间，而具体估测值则取决于统计期限）。这些数字虽然令人震惊，但过于抽象。

    双汇收购史密斯菲尔德使得这些数字显得更具体。这次交易背后的真正原因在于，这些有远见的中国企业家心里非常清楚，由于中国食物链多数环节已经受到污染，因此把握未来利润的机遇还得靠从境外收购整个食品生产链。从这层意义上来说，双汇收购史密斯菲尔德是醉翁之意，既不看中它的猪肉加工技术，也不看中它的高端品牌，而是看中美国安全的农场和干净的水源供应。

    双汇的这个战略算盘打得很高明。中国官方数据显示，中国三分之二以上的水路都已经遭到污染。20世纪90年代末期进行的一次农田样本研究显示，10%的农田受到重金属污染。2010年完成的一次为期三年的有关土壤条件的全国调查结果肯定也得到同样惊人的数据，促使环保部宣布相关数据为“国家机密”。

    由于清理受重金属和其他致癌物质污染的土地和水路需要投入大量的财力和时间，因此收购拥有自有土地、安全水供应的食品生产商这一动机要比其他理由更有份量。

    如果以上分析没错的话，那么双汇收购史密斯菲尔德就是一个未来大趋势的前兆。面对环境恶化所带来的灾难性后果，中国食品生产商将别无选择，唯有放眼海外。毋庸置疑，这对于许多企业来说意味着巨大商机。不过可以大致肯定的是，中方加快收购境外食品公司将会给中国和世界其他地区之间造成紧张气氛。遗憾的是，目前还没有解决这个难题的好办法。（财富中文网）

    作者系克莱蒙特•麦肯纳学院72级“汤姆和玛格特•普利兹克”政治学教授，兼美国德国马歇尔基金会非常驻高级成员。

    译者：默默

    When we exhaust our analysis, we should find that the most strategic explanation for this acquisition is China's environmental degradation. For years, observers have been trying to figure out the real-world consequences of the extensive pollution of air, water, and farmland in China as a result of its rapid economic growth. Various estimates have been used to calculate the economic costs and human toll of pollution (estimates of the costs of pollution range from 5 to 8% of GDP, depending on the value of a statistical life used for the exercise). Such numbers are shocking but abstract.

    With Shuanghui's purchase of Smithfield, these numbers are less abstract. The real story behind this transaction is that far-sighted Chinese entrepreneurs fully understand that, because pollution has contaminated major parts of China's food chain, their future profit opportunities lie in buying the entire food-production process abroad. Bagging Smithfield, in this sense, is not about getting its hogs, pork-processing technology, or even premium brand. It is really about owning access to America's safe farmland and clean water supplies.

    This strategic calculation is truly brilliant. Based on official Chinese data, more than two-thirds of its waterways are polluted. A sample study of farmland conducted in the late 1990s showed 10% contaminated with heavy metal. A three-year national survey of soil conditions completed in 2010 must have yielded such alarming data that the Ministry of Environmental Protection declared the data a "state secret."

    Given the fact that cleaning up land and waterways despoiled by heavy metal and other carcinogens requires huge amounts of money and takes a long time, buying food producers that own their land and have access to safe water supplies is a far more attractive proposition.

    If this analysis is correct, the Shuanghui purchase of Smithfield is a harbinger of things to come. Pressured by the catastrophic consequences of environmental degradation, Chinese food producers will have no choice but set their sights abroad. No doubt, this will present great business opportunities for many, but a rapid increase in Chinese acquisitions of food companies overseas will almost certainly create tensions between China and the rest of the world. Sadly, there are no good policies in place to address this challenge.

    Minxin Pei is the Tom and Margot Pritzker '72 Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States.