移动革命时代PC的生存之道

    不断变化的市场使其他PC制造商不得不更加注重创意，于是促成了葛文德所谓的计算机历史上史无前例的试验时期。比如，今年早些时候，戴尔发布了仅有5磅重的XPS 18一体机。这款机器配有18.4寸触摸屏，意味着用户在家中可以随意移动。而有报道称台湾公司宏碁（Acer）将尝试不同的方向。宏碁下周推出的全新一体机将放弃微软和英特尔（Intel），转而运行谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）操作系统，同时使用德州仪器（Texas Instruments）的芯片。

    这些产品正是葛文德和高德纳研究公司（Gartner Research）的北川美佳子等分析师们对PC行业保持乐观的原因。他们认为，即使PC装机量有所下降，PC行业依然能够坚持下去。据高德纳预测，PC装机量下降的趋势将从明年首先在美国开始，下降约4%，降至1.8亿台，并在2015年将蔓延至全球。过去，一个三口之家可能有两至三台电脑，但北川美佳子预测，这种情形将一去不复返。消费者将使用平板电脑完成大部分任务，而PC将被用于完成一些繁重的任务。

    随着计算机进一步发生必要的进化，它们将以更多令人惊奇的形式出现。有些东西已经在行业内出现，比如谷歌眼镜。届时甚至会出现“嵌入式计算设备”。这类设备的计算活动不需要大量用户输入，而是可以跟踪用户日常生活：Nest智能恒温器就是最好的例子。葛文德说：“如果是这样，那就相当于迅猛龙变成了鸟类。”（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    The changing market is forcing other PC makers to also get more creative, leading to what Gownder calls the most unprecedented period of experimentation in the history of computing. To wit, Dell launched its XPS 18 earlier this year, a five-pound all-in-one desktop with an 18.4-inch touch screen meant for users to move around the home. Likewise, Taiwan-based Acer will reportedly take a different tack when it announces a new all-in-one desktop next week shunning Microsoft and Intel (INTC), and running Google's (GOOG) Android operating system with a Texas Instruments (TXN) chip.

    Products like these are what make analysts like Gownder and Gartner Research analyst Mikako Kitagawa optimistic the PC will stick around even if the number of "installed" PCs declines, which Gartner predicts will start happening next year in the U.S., falling 4% to 180 million units, and globally in 2015. In the past, a household with three family members might have two or three computers, but that scenario won't happen any more, predicts Kitagawa. They'll rely on tablets for most things, and one PC shared among them to do the heavy lifting.

    As computers further evolve out of necessity, they will yield even more surprising form factors, something the industry is already seeing with Google Glass and even tangentially, "embedded computing devices," devices with computing activity that don't require a lot of user input but track various aspects of users' day-to-day: the Nest home thermostat being one contemporary example. Says Gownder: "In this case, the velociraptor has turned into a finch."