2045年的世界什么样

未来的《财富》（Fortune）杂志500强……

    “50年后，500强榜单上半数的公司将消失，”彼得•戴尔蒙迪斯博士在回答一个问题时即兴发言说，虽然这绝不是一个科学的数字（他也没有想让这个数字具有科学性），但他回答的大方向却是正确的：上个世纪大行其道的东西在下个世纪未必还会继续存在。

    这样的预测听起来谁都能做，但参考世上公认的成功公司榜单（原谅我在这里自卖自夸）就会发现这不是偶然现象。并不是说我们将迎来一个企业不断失败的世纪，而是旧模式（在某些情况下指旧行业）在新的世界里将不再起作用，技术井喷式地发展将闪电般地改变社会、消费者和经济的内涵。

    但这并不意味着企业就不重要了，戴尔蒙迪斯说。实际上，企业绝对关键。戴尔蒙迪斯说：“变革的速度会非常快，创新也同样日新月异，我相信目前的政府系统没有哪个能应付得过来。”随着新技术边界不断延伸，能够自由探索到边缘的灵活公司和机构不仅会成为今后数十年中最成功的组织，也将担负起政府无法承担的责任，那就是，塑造21世纪的形态。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

About the Fortune 500 ...

    "Fifty percent of the Fortune 500 will not exist 50 years from now." Dr. Peter Diamandis made this off-the-cuff assertion in response to a question, and while it's not a scientific figure by any means (nor did he mean it to be) his larger point remains valid: What worked in the last century isn't necessarily going to work in the new one.

    That might seem a prediction anyone could make, but the reference to the world's most recognized listing of successful corporations (pardon the self-referential grandstanding) is not an accident. It's not that we're in for a century of corporate collapse, but that old models (and in some cases, old industries) simply aren't going to be relevant in a world where avalanching technological developments are changing society, consumers, and fundamental economics at an increasingly dizzying speed.

    But that doesn't mean corporations aren't important, Diamandis said. In fact, they are absolutely critical. "The rate of change is going so fast, innovation is occurring at such a rate, that I cannot believe that any of our existing government systems can handle it," Diamandis said. Nimble companies and institutions that are free to explore new technologies all the way to the edge of an increasingly large envelope will not only be the most successful over the next few decades, but they will be responsible -- in ways that governments simply cannot be -- for shaping the 21st century.