为什么大数据比不上好直觉

    大数据造成小世界。道德感通过共鸣而增强。矛盾的是，在这个高度连接的时代，我们越来越需要面对一个挑战：与想法、价值观、信仰、信念和文化相异的人们交流。数字技术可以根据我们的偏好，为我们定制线上和线下的社交活动，我们越来越沉浸在自己的世界中——正如艾利•帕雷瑟所说的“过滤泡泡”。它通过智能算法，向我们提供熟悉的内容、文化和同伴，同时把这些东西直接砸入我们的舒适地带。我们不“赞”与我们不同的人和事物，陷入了社会和文化上狭隘的恶性循环。

    大数据让我们更智能，而不是更有智慧。我们这个数据驱动的世界不仅变得更小，还变得更快。信息的实时传递促使我们不断地立刻做出回应。道格拉斯•洛西科夫打趣阿尔文•托夫勒1970年的著作《未来冲击》（Future Shock）的书名，将我们现在的状态称为“现时冲击”（Present Shock），他哀叹，“一切不是发生在当下的事情日益遭到漠视，而一切被认为是发生在当下的事情又让人应接不暇。”

    数据可以迅速为我们提供信息，不过要快速做出意义深远的决定，直觉是更好的工具。普拉萨德•凯帕和纳威•拉裘在最近的一本书中力劝商界领袖进行“从智能到智慧”的转变。他们的意见很中肯。拥有智能的公司和领袖依靠持续的反馈成长起来。智能很快，智慧却很慢。拥有智慧的公司和领袖需要时间来实现转变。

    大数据（过于）明显。“你只能管理你所测量到的”——真的吗？金融危机已经证明我们对于所测量的事物管理得很失败。失败的兼并、失败的产品发布、信誉危机、社交媒体的灾难，这一切都证明，我们需要更好地管理那些我们无法测量的事物。

    正如设计界的思想家罗杰•马丁所言，领袖需要“兼听则明”。评价21世纪的商界领袖，不再看他/她能排除多少不确定性，而要看他/她能忍受多少不确定性。

    大数据不敌直觉力。数据也许能预测新问题，也许能找到已知问题的新解决办法，不过只有人类的直觉和巧妙心思才能提出开创性的新想法。这是独一无二的人类天赋——它远远超过解决一个问题，超过满足某个功能需求的层次。

    同样的，如果我们量化所有的人际关系，就无法给人类的判断力留下任何回旋余地。因为我们常常把对人们的感觉和他们的行为混合在一起，我们的判断力比二进制数字更加复杂。它意味着我们可以对双重行为有着更细微的评估和反应，我们可以选择将失败视为创新的先决条件。很难想象，如果我们丧失原谅的能力，如何还能朝着任何目标前进。

    让我们抵抗冲向数据的欲望，花时间沉住气，必要时再加快步伐。让我们允许自己不时从数据中解脱出来，去思考什么才是真正重要的东西。让我们用数据来讲述自己故事，但不要让数据成为我们唯一的故事。（财富中文网）

    译者：严匡正

    Big Data creates small worlds. Morality is gained by way of empathy. Paradoxically, in our age of hyper-connectivity we are increasingly facing the challenge of connecting with people whose opinions, values, beliefs, faith, and culture may be unlike ours. As digital technology customizes our social experiences, online and offline, based on our preferences, we are increasingly stuck in our own worlds -- the "Filter Bubble," as Eli Pariser called it, designed by smart algorithms to serve us with content, culture, and company that we are already familiar with and that fall squarely within our comfort zones. We don't "like" the people and things that are unlike us, feeding a vicious cycle of social and cultural narrow-mindedness.

    Big Data makes us smarter, not wiser. Our data-driven worlds are not only becoming smaller, they are becoming faster. The real-time flow of information persuades us to react to feedback constantly and instantly. Playing on the title of Alvin Toffler's 1970 book Future Shock, Douglas Rushkoff calls our current state-of-mind Present Shock, lamenting "a diminishment of everything that isn't happening right now -- and the onslaught of everything that supposedly is."

    Data might give us information fast, but for quick but profound decisions, intuition is much better. Prasad Kaipa and Navi Radjou, in a recent book, urge business leaders to move "from smart to wise." They have a point. Smart organizations and leaders thrive on constant feedback. Smart is fast. Wise, however, is slow. Wise organizations and leaders need time and take it.

    Big Data is (too) obvious. "You can only manage what you measure"—really? The financial crisis has shown that we manage poorly what we measure. And failed mergers, failed product launches, reputational crises, and social media disasters, indicate that we need to get better at managing what we cannot measure.

    Leaders need to have "opposable minds," as design thinker Roger Martin puts it. The business leader of the 21st century will no longer be judged by how much uncertainty he or she can eliminate but by how much uncertainty he or she can tolerate.

    Big Data doesn't give (or forgive). Data might be able to predict new problems or find new solutions to existing problems, but only human intuition and ingenuity can come up with groundbreaking new ideas. That is a uniquely human gift—one that goes beyond merely fixing a problem or meeting a functional need.

    By the same token, if we quantify all of our relationships, we will not leave any wiggle room for human discretion. Because we often have mixed feelings about people and their behavior, our judgment can be more than just binary. This means we can assess and respond to ambivalent behaviors with more nuance, and we can choose to accept failure as a prerequisite of innovation.It is hard to see how we can make progress towards any goal without an ability to forgive.

    Let's resist the rush to data and take the time to lean back so we can be fast when it matters. Let's grant ourselves a data moratorium from time to time that we can use to reflect on what really is important. Let's use data to tell our stories, but let's not allow data become our only story.