银行闹钱荒对中国是好事

    中国正努力改变经济增长方式；当前的增长方式由于包括严重的污染问题在内的种种原因已经难以为继。这对于像中国三一重工（Sany Heavy Industry）和卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）（位于伊利诺伊州皮奥里亚）这样的企业而言不是什么好消息，因为这些公司指望着受益于中国建筑行业的爆炸性增长。虽然中国央行将拧紧资金龙头的消息激起了市场反应，但此举关乎中国经济实现再平衡的计划，即（像美国一样）主要由消费驱动增长，减少对制造业和建筑业的依赖。

    它肯定会减缓中国经济的发展，但在耶鲁大学（Yale University）研究员、前摩根士丹利亚洲（Morgan Stanley Asia）首席经济学家斯蒂芬•罗奇看来，这是一个好的发展趋势。

    最近罗奇在《评论汇编》（Project Syndicate）杂志撰文写道，只要中国能重新平衡其经济，即使增长速度放慢，仍然可以创造足够的就业机会，同时减少贫困。

    因为中国旧的增长模式严重依赖制造业和建筑业，这些行业更需要机器、而不是人员，所以创造的就业机会少于以服务为导向的经济体。比如，一个广告公司依赖于员工的创意，而一个制造厂依赖机器的运转速度。罗奇提供了一个有趣的统计数据：服务业在单位国内生产总值中创造的就业比制造业和建筑业要多35%。这种状态很难实现。正因如此华尔街总在讨论的一个话题是，中国将会“软着陆”还是“硬着陆”。中国需要找到一个微妙的平衡，在实施改革的同时避免金融动荡。

    即使市场对此出现反应，罗奇表示中国央行传达的信息最终是积极的：“短期内会带来痛苦，因为它给金融机构施加了较大压力，但这说明政府真的下定决心改变不可持续的经济增长方式。”

    周二，中国央行安抚紧张不安的市场，表示将引导银行间利率趋于合理。目前还不清楚利率将处于什么水平，但这番番言论似乎已经使投资者平静下来。周一，隔夜贷款利率从6.6%下降到5.8%。6月之前，这个利率更低，约为2%至3%。

    随着中国继续实施改革，未来可能还会出现波动性事件。但它们可能利大于弊。（财富中文网）

    China is trying to change the way it grows; it can't continue for a host of reasons, including huge pollution problems. This is bad news for companies like China-based Sany Heavy Industry and Peoria, Ill.-based Caterpillar (CAT) that have banked on the exploding growth of China's construction industry. And while news that China's central bank will narrow its money spigot has caused markets to react, the move ties to the country's broader plans to rebalance growth so that it's driven more by U.S.-style consumption and less on manufacturing and construction.

    That will surely slow down the Chinese economy -- a welcomed development if you ask experts like Stephen Roach, a Yale University fellow and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley Asia.

    So long as China rebalances its economy, it can still create enough jobs and reduce poverty with slower growth, Roach wrote recently in Project Syndicate.

    That's because China's old model relied heavily on manufacturing and construction, which needed many more machines than people and didn't produce nearly as many jobs as a more service-oriented economy. It's the difference between -- say, an advertising agency that depend on the creative minds of workers vs. a manufacturing plant that count on the speed of machines. Roach offers an interesting statistic: China's services sector requires about 35% more jobs per unit of GDP than do manufacturing and construction. Achieving this is tricky. And that's partly why we always hear Wall Street ask if China is in for a "soft" or "hard landing." China needs to find a delicate balance between implementing reforms while avoiding financial turmoil.

    Even if markets reacted, Roach says the message delivered by China's central bank is ultimately positive: "It's painful short-term because it puts a lot of pressure on financial institutions, but it's a visible sign of a government that is really determined to change the course of unsustainable growth."

    On Tuesday, China's central bank soothed jittery markets, saying that it would guide interbank interest rates to reasonable levels. It's unclear what those rates might look like, but the remarks seemed to have calmed investors. The overnight lending rate fell to 5.8% from 6.6% Monday. Before June rates were lower -- at around 2% to 3%.

    As China continues to make changes, we'll probably see volatile spurts again. But know it likely has more to do with good news than bad.