美国工资条的秘密

    问：在有些行业，比如旅店、餐饮业甚至是医疗护理行业，都有很多从业者雇佣了很多兼职员工，有些企业正好是在30人到50人的门槛上。他们非常关注《平价医保法》。你认为这项法案会对他们产生哪些影响？

    我们仔细研究了这个问题。如果你看看兼职工人和全职工人在旅馆、餐饮和医疗护理业的分布，你会发现这些企业的医保成本将面临显著增加的情况。他们要么之前从来没有提供过医保，要么就是担心兼职工人也会获得医保资格。我们正在努力建立一套系统，使HR部门可以管理这些成本，同时做出成确的决策，把未来这些福利成本增加所带来的影响也考虑进去。

    问：你认为美国的总体工资水平会出现怎样的趋势？

    答：我们从数据中发现，大量的新工作都是年薪在25,000美元以下的工作。低收入领域的就业增长尤其强势，但是在年薪50,000美元以上的领域，就业增长率就明显趋缓。收入分配格局的这种转变非常值得注意。

    问：ADP的很多利润来自浮存金以及对它的投资，那么如果你也关注利率的话，你认为利率的走向会是怎样的？

    ADP的确有很大的浮存金业务。从我们收到各个企业付来的工资款，到把这笔钱发到个人手上，中间有几天的时间差，要分发这些钱也需要些时间。平均来说，我们的账本上有220亿美元客户的钱，我们很小心地用这笔钱进行投资，因此我们对利率也有依赖性。我们采用一个前瞻性的收益曲线作为指标，我们不参与中期的任何利率变动，所以我们一直是在一个低利率的环境中操作。

    问：未来的很长时间都会是这样吗？

    答：在美国，很长时间就意味着两年左右。

    问：ADP是美国国内硕果仅存的四家3A评级企业之一。做一家3A评级企业和做一家信用评级稍低一点的企业相比，信用成本的差别不是很大，ADP也不是一家大型的资本密集型企业。在今天的环境中，做一家3A评级企业的意义是什么？

    答：我们是目前美国四家3A评级企业中规模最小的一家，我们把3A评价看做对公司业务实力的验证。我们相信它会让投资者和我们的股东看到公司业务的稳定性，看到一个很高的准入门槛，看到我们公司的前景。对于客户来说也很重要，因为我们是从他们那里收钱再付给他们员工，如果他们知道他们的合作伙伴信用更好，肯定会更加放心，所以我相信这是一个优势。我知道我们的销售团队每天都会提起这一点。

    In certain industries -- hospitality, restaurants, and, somewhat ironically, even health care -- a lot of operators have many part-time employees and may be right at that threshold of 30 to 50 employees. They're really concerned about the Affordable Care Act. What impact do you see it having on them?

    We've analyzed this specific topic in quite some detail. When you look at the spread between part-time workers and full-time workers in particular industries like hospitality and travel, and health care to some degree, those companies will face significant increases in their health care costs. They either have not offered health care before or are worried that part-time workers are becoming eligible for health care. We're working very hard to create systems so that an HR operation can manage those costs and make the right decisions to contain the future impact of increased benefit costs.

    What trends are you seeing in overall U.S. pay levels?

    We observe in our data that a vast number of the jobs created have been in jobs below $25,000. Job growth in the low-income category is particularly strong, and much more muted in the categories above $50,000. It's really quite remarkable to see the shift in income distribution.

    A lot of ADP's profit comes from float and investing it, so you focus on interest rates. What's your sense of where they're going?

    ADP does have a big float business. We collect monies for payrolls a few days before disbursement, and it takes a while to distribute the monies. On average, we have about $22 billion of client fund money on our balance sheet, which we invest carefully, and hence we have a dependence on interest rates. We take forward-looking yield curves as our indicator. We don't anticipate any interest rate movements in the medium-term future, so we are working in a constant low interest rate environment.

    For a long time to come?

    For a long time in the U.S., meaning two years or so.

    ADP is one of the four remaining U.S. companies with a triple-A credit rating. The difference in credit costs between being triple-A and being one notch below is not great, and ADP is not a hugely capital-intensive company. How important is it to be triple-A in today's environment?

    We are the smallest of the four triple-A-rated industrial companies and view it as a testament to the strength of our business model. We believe it signals to investors and our shareholders the stability of the business, the high entry barriers, and the prospects of the company. For our clients, it's also important because we collect their money to pay their employees, and knowing that they're with a company that is a better credit risk than the U.S. I believe is an advantage. I know our sales force uses that argument every day.