甲骨文的问题到底出在哪？

    上周甲骨文的收益报告一出，它的股价应声下跌9%。造成这种局面的原因并不完全是由于这家公司没能满足财务预期，更大的原因是由于人们越来越担心，甲骨文目前的困境并不是周期性因素导致的，而是非周期性因素导致的。很多分析师和投资人针对这个问题展开了一番争论，这种争论可能还会持续一段时间。

    摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）分析师约翰•迪福齐在一份研究简报中指出，很多投资者在投资前都在问关于非周期性挑战的事。他说：“甲骨文最近的困境很多程度上是宏观因素导致的，不过我们也相认为，销售战略的变化可能也是导致短期出现混乱的原因。”他还表示，从长期来看，这种变化将对甲骨文有利。

    还有些分析师表示了更深的担忧。韦德布什公司（Wedbush）分析师史蒂夫•科尼格认为，甲骨文没有满足收益预期“令人震惊”，同时表示甲骨文的传统软件业务正在面临来自“软件即服务”的竞争压力。奥本海默公司（Oppenheimer）的布莱恩•施瓦茨则指出，本季度甲骨文的一些小额交易透露出一个令人担忧的信号，就是云计算正在蚕食甲骨文的业务。

    施瓦茨称：“我们认为，随着云计算越来越吸引企业的首席信息官们将IT投资从高额的传统软件、维护和基础架构转移到云计算上，传统的企业软件市场目前也正更多地受到非周性期性（而非周期性）因素的挤压。”

    不过在这个行业里，甲骨文的业务被小型创业公司偷走的可能性并不像其他行业那么大。甲骨文总裁埃里森五年前曾经公开贬低过云计算，不过现在甲骨文已经灵活地适应了这种新的业务模式和软件行业的其它变革。现在甲骨文的大多数销售人员的招聘都主要围绕着云业务。就在上周，甲骨文还宣布将与Salesforce.com、微软（Microsoft）和NetSuite结成云计算合作伙伴关系。

    可以说，甲骨文目前面临的非周性期性问题是：尽管它在向新业务模式转型上做得很好，但是这个新模式之所以吸引了大多数企业的CIO，恰恰是由于它能降低企业的软件成本。甲骨文可能会继续在企业软件市场上攫取最大的一块蛋糕，但问题是这个市场本身就在慢慢缩水。

    这就是软件所面临的问题。套用马克•安德里森的话，它在“蚕食世界”，这个过程将降低人们和企业的总体支出。新闻业、唱片业和其他行业都见证过这一切的发生，现在云计算又把这种变革带到了软件行业。甲骨文只不过是最近一家经历这种变革的企业罢了。(财富中文网)

    译者：朴成奎

    When Oracle's stock fell 9% last week on its earnings, it had less to do with missing any financial estimates and more to do with a growing concern that the headwinds hitting Oracle are not cyclical but secular -- that is, they're here for good. That sparked a debate among analyst and investors that is likely to continue for some time.

    John DiFucci, an analyst at J.P. Morgan, said in a research note that investors are asking about secular challenges before downplaying them. "Oracle's recent struggles are largely macro driven, although we do believe that a change in sales strategy is likely also causing some disruption near-term," he wrote. Longer-term, this shift will help Oracle, DiFucci said.

    Others expressed more concern. Wedbush analyst Steve Koenig termed the revenue miss shocking and said its on-premise applications business was facing secular pressure from software-as-a-service competition. Oppenheimer's Brian Schwartz pointed to the smaller transactions in the quarter as a worrying sign the cloud is taking a toll.

    "We believe something more secular (not cyclical) is currently pressuring the enterprise software market as cloud computing increasingly entices CIOs to defer investments on large-ticket on-premise software, maintenance and infrastructure in favor of investment decisions to re-architect legacy systems to the cloud," Schwartz said.

    It's not so much that, as in so many industries, smaller upstarts are stealing business from Oracle. Ellison famously dissed cloud computing five years ago, but Oracle has deftly adapted to new business models and other changes in the software industry since then. Most of the company's sales hiring is focused on cloud offerings. And this week, Oracle announced cloud-computing partnerships with Salesforce.com (CRM), Microsoft (MSFT), and NetSuite (N).

    Rather, the secular problem facing Oracle is this: Even though it's doing a good job at transitioning to a new business model, that model is attractive to CIOs primarily because it helps them spend less on software. Oracle may well continue to carve out the biggest slice of the big, meaty revenue pie that is the enterprise-tech market. But that pie is shrinking slowly.

    Well, that's the thing about software. As it, in the famous phrase by Marc Andreessen, eats the world, it often diminishes the overall revenue that people and companies pay. Newspapers, music labels, and other industries have watched this happen. Now the cloud is doing it to the software industry itself. Oracle is only the latest to see what that's like.