三星遭遇苹果式困境

    今年6月，分析师们纷纷下调了三星评级，结果导致三星（Samsung）市值缩水达13%。大家当时或许以为，三星股价中的所有水份都已经挤干了。但上周五，三星公布了令人失望的业绩预测之后，这支股票一天之内再度跌去3.8%。

    分析师们没有浪费哪怕一秒钟的时间，马上把它拿来与苹果公司（Apple）类比。

    “苹果苦于iPhone销售疲软，而三星则苦于Galaxy销售疲软。”三星新闻稿发布前，Strategy Analytics的尼尔•莫斯顿就在一封发出的邮件中这样写道。

    彭博社（Bloomberg）、路透社（Reuters）、《纽约时报》（New York Times）和《华尔街日报》《Wall Street Journal》上周五报道称，高端智能手机市场正在接近饱和。果真如此，苹果和三星无疑坐在同一条船上。

    但也有理由认为，三星陷入的困境是自己一手造成的。

    • 让人震惊的是，对于一个像三星这样多元化发展的制造业巨头，它对智能手机销售的依赖程度甚至可能已经超越了苹果。手机占到三星上季营运利润的74%。同季，iPhone贡献了苹果52%的营收和65%的毛利润。

    • 为了推动智能手机销售，三星可是花了大价钱。上个月，三星在《广告时代》(Ad Age)美国增长最快的广告主榜单中排名第一，去年三星的全球广告预算是43亿美元，是苹果的四倍。

    • 今年三月隆重推出的Galaxy S4被标榜为三星创新典范，一款有望超越iPhone 5的力作。但Galaxy S4的销售不仅赶不上iPhone 5,销量下降速度也远快于iPhone 5。

    • 等到下次苹果发布新一代iPhone时（时间最早可能是9月份），我们或许会看清高端智能手机市场究竟有多饱和。（财富中文网）

    You might have thought that all the starch had been taken out of Samsung in June when a wave of analysts' downgradestrimmed its market value by 13%. But the stock got hammered again on Friday, losing 3.8% in one trading day following a disappointing earnings forecast.

    Analysts wasted no time making comparisons to Apple (AAPL).

    "Apple is suffering from iPhone fatigue, while Samsung is suffering from Galaxy fatigue," said Strategy Analytics' Neil Mawston in an e-mail sent even before Samsung's press release.

    If the market for high-end smartphones is approaching saturation, as reports in Bloomberg,Reuters, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal all suggested Friday, that would indeed put Apple in the same boat as Samsung.

    But there are reasons to think that Samsung is in a mess of its own making.

    • Astonishingly, for a manufacturing giant as diversified as Samsung, it may have become even more dependent on smartphone sales than Apple. Mobile phones accounted for 74% of Samsung's operating profit last quarter. In the same quarter, the iPhone represented 52% of Apple's revenue and 65% of its gross profit.

    • Samsung spent a fortune driving those smartphone sales. It topped Ad Age's list of the fastest growing U.S. ad spenders last month, and its worldwide ad budget last year was $4.3 billion -- four times Apple's.

    • The Galaxy S4, which the company released in March to such fanfare, was pitched as a showcase of Samsung innovation and its best shot at overtaking the iPhone 5. But sales of the Galaxy S4 couldn't match the iPhone 5's and have tailed off far more rapidly.

    • We may find out just how saturated the high-end smartphone market is when Apple releases its next generation of iPhones, perhaps as early as September.