中国经济放缓真相透视

    此外，货币层面也有问题。由于盈利能力减弱以及负债率上升，企业被迫将更多利润用于偿还债务，用于投资的利润随之减少。但政府似乎并不太担心。政府官员看来已经从上一次的刺激措施中吸取了教训，那就是强制性大规模放贷会导致浪费和冒进。

    关键问题并不是经济增长率，而是经济对社会的影响。有一个很有力的观点是，按照这个标准，近来中国的经济增长一直过快。全力以赴地追求更高的产出造成环境严重退化，而且可能促使人们对腐败持放纵态度。

    经济增速放慢或许会让更多的投资用于提高中国的长期幸福水平和健康水平。其中包括减少生产污染，真正实现创新以及创造人力资本。但最近公布的一些项目，比如世界上最大的单体建筑、最长的海底隧道以及万众瞩目的空间项目，都表明中国积习难改。

    投资者对中国经济硬着陆的探讨毫无用处。只要能保持充分就业以及比较稳定的社会局势，就算GDP每年只增长2%也完全可以接受。相反，如果劳资纠纷事件和破产现象激增，就算经济增长率达到7%也依然问题重重。

    或许测试经济是否硬着陆的最好方法就是看政府是否还能掌控局势。在这方面进行推演基本上无异于玩一场政治文字游戏。中国总理李克强表示，经济增速还没有跌到可接受的最低水平以下，无论这个可接受的最低水平是多少，这句话都让人备受鼓舞。

    看起来目前最有可能的情况是决策层正在耐心等待。他们掌握着强有力的手段，比如强制性放贷、本币贬值以及大规模推动基建，但这些手段都很粗放，所产生的结果都存在不确定性。目前，抱着“顺其自然”的心态看来比较合适。(财富中文网)

    译者：Charlie

    Still, there's a monetary problem. Because profitability is falling and leverage has risen, companies have to put more of their profits into servicing debt and less into investment. The government does not seem too bothered. Officials seem to have learned the lesson of the last stimulus: mandated mega-lending leads to wastage and recklessness.

    The key issue is not pace of growth, but the effect on society. There is a good argument that by that standard China's recent growth has been too fast. The all-out pursuit of more production led to grave environmental degradation and probably encouraged a lax attitude towards corruption.

    A slower-growing economy could allow for more investment in things that make China a happier, healthier place over the long run. Those would include cleaner production, genuine innovation and human capital. But some recently announced projects -- the world's largest free-standing building, the longest under-sea tunnel, a flamboyant space program -- suggest old habits die hard.

    Investors' talk of a hard landing in China is unhelpful. Even GDP growth of 2% a year would be quite acceptable, as long as employment remained adequate and social unrest low. Conversely, 7% growth with a spike in labor-related protests and bankruptcies would be tough.

    Perhaps the best test of a hard landing is whether the authorities appear to remain in control. Deducing that is largely a question of parsing political rhetoric. It's encouraging that Premier Li Keqiang says growth hasn't fallen below the minimum acceptable rate, whatever that is.

    What seems most likely is that policymakers are biding their time. The tools they have -- forced lending, currency depreciation, vast infrastructure mandates -- are powerful but they are also rough, and come with uncertain consequences. For now, the mentality of "best left alone" looks about right.