微软巨变蒙上阴影

    展望前景，短期内也不会有任何起色。胡德警告称，在接下来这一财季，戴尔公司（Dell）和惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）这类PC厂商贡献的Windows收入将下降约15%。高盛公司（Goldman Sachs）则预计，平板电脑和智能手机的价格不断走低，以及新兴市场的盗版问题都将对未来收益造成严重影响。而由于兴建云计算基础设施和Surface的加工制造问题，销售成本还将居高不下。如果微软还打算继续投入重金推广Surface，营销费用也将持续高企。

    投资者对待这类消息的态度就是毫不留情地用脚投票。有几位分析师下调了微软股票的评级。上周四微软股票收盘价为35.44美元，周五就以32.40美元的低价开盘。当天交易结束时，则进一步下跌至31.40美元，几乎将三个月的稳定上涨一笔勾销。一天之中，微软股票就下跌了11.4%，公司市值损失了340亿美元。换句话说，如果雅虎公司（Yahoo）的市值也损失了这么多，那它就等于一钱不值了。诸如此类的坏消息都让重组声明陷于不利境地。或许有人认为一次雄心勃勃的重组就能扭转目前这些让人担心的长期趋势。但一切这样乐观看法都会被一个顾虑所抵消，即微软要完成这次大胆重组将耗时数月，期间它必然会遭遇诸多困难。就算是它成功完成了重组，也没人敢保证微软的全新架构就能提高它的效率。

    微软将焕然一新、业务更为聚焦，这本来是让人充满希望的好消息，但一个业绩不佳的财季，加之短期内复苏无望却让这个希望立刻破灭了。大家不禁会想，如果微软在收益报告发布之后再宣布重组的消息，它的日子是不是就会好过些，因为这样它至少还能辩称：看，我们依然掌控着大局，我们还有办法。

    实际上，这些好坏参半的消息已让微软的前景比任何时候都更不明朗。目前只有为数不多的瑞银（UBS）和野村证券（Nomura）的分析师还力挺微软股票，他们预计态度积极的股东将会推动微软采取有利于投资者的行动。确实，上周五路透社（Reuters）报道称，微软正与这样一个投资者商谈加盟董事会的事宜。微软的巨变才刚刚掀开帷幕，只是这次它可能要借助公司外部的力量来推动了。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    Looking ahead, things weren't any brighter in the near term. Hood warned that Windows revenue from PC manufacturers like Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) would decline by around 15% in the coming quarter. Goldman Sachs predicted that lower prices of tablets and smartphones and piracy in emerging markets would weigh on future earnings. Cost of goods sold will stay high because of cloud infrastructure and Surface manufacturing. And if Microsoft keeps spending on promoting the Surface, marketing costs will stay high as well.

    Investors took the news pretty hard. Several analysts downgraded the stock. Microsoft shares, which closed at $35.44 on Thursday, opened at $32.40 Friday and by the end of trading had sunk further to $31.40, erasing nearly three months of steady gains. In one day, Microsoft dropped 11.4%, losing $34 billion in market value. Put another way, if Yahoo (YHOO) lost that much market value, it would be worthless.

    All that bad news took the wind out of the restructuring announcement. Any optimism that an ambitious restructuring would reverse these worrisome trends longer-term was offset by a concern that, in the months it would take for Microsoft to complete its ambitious turnaround, it would have to navigate some rough waters. And even then, there's no assurance the new Microsoft structure will make it more efficient.

    The hopeful news about a new, more focused Microsoft was undone by the grim sight of a messy financial quarter, with no clear turnaround in sight. You have to wonder if Microsoft would be better off had it announced the restructuring after the earnings report, so it could argue: Look, we have this under control. We're taking care of it.

    As it is, both pieces of news have left Microsoft's future looking more uncertain than ever. Among the few voices arguing for the stock were analysts at UBS and Nomura, who predictedshareholder activists would start agitating for moves that benefit investors. Sure enough, late Friday Reuters reported that Microsoft is talking with one such investor about a board seat. Big changes are only beginning at Microsoft, only now they may start coming from outside the company.