资深拥趸不看好苹果远期前景

    一位长期看好苹果（Apple）的人士现在好像没那么看好苹果了。

    日前在美国科罗拉多州阿斯彭的《财富》杂志（Fortune）科技头脑风暴大会上，对冲基金Coatue Management经理菲利普•拉方特被问到有关苹果公司前景时，他的回答充其量也只能算是不冷不热。截至3月末，苹果股票在这家资产规模79亿美元的基金持仓中占比6.71%，排第五位。

    几个月前，拉方特还在对彭博电视（Bloomberg TV）说，无论从什么标准来看，苹果的股价都很便宜。

    但此次在科技头脑风暴大会上被问到苹果是否有光明前景时，拉方特说：“这只股票的价格反映出很大的不确定性，不知道这家公司最好的日子是否已经过去。”他指出，发达国家的平板电脑和智能手机市场早已饱和，他很担忧。另外，苹果总是坚持在公司内部开发新技术，他不知道将来它还能不能这样做。“苹果就像是任何东西都必须自己发明出来，”拉方特说。“这一点真让我担心。”

    素有“小虎”之称的拉方特是老虎基金（Tiger Management）经理朱利安•罗伯逊的门生，他曾表示，投资科技股实际上相当简单。他努力找出大趋势，然后进行押注。当前他看好的一大主题是家庭数据容量的增长。在提供这种大容量的竞争中，“我们认为有线电视公司具有优势。”由于对LTE服务的需求，他还看好手机基站业务。

    他不看好的领域有哪些呢？他的回答指向苹果的核心业务。“我们当前不太喜欢的主题是手机和平板电脑的制造业务，”拉方特说。“但内容方面，我们很喜欢。每个人都有一个屏幕，他们希望看到更多的内容。”结论：“内容，移动宽带，看好。硬件以及任何与电脑相关的业务，不看好。”

    苹果股东聊可慰藉的是，相比苹果，现在至少还有一只股票拉方特更不看好。拉方特说：“不管股价多少，我都不会买英特尔（Intel）。”（财富中文网）

    One longtime Apple bull doesn't sound so bullish on Apple now.

    Appearing at Fortune's Brainstorm Tech conference in Aspen, Colo., hedge fund manager Phillippe Laffont of Coatue Management sounded lukewarm at best when asked about Apple's (AAPL) prospects. At the end of March, Apple represented 6.71% of the $7.9 billion fund, good for the fifth largest position.

    A few months ago, Laffont told Bloomberg TV that Apple's stock was cheap by any measure.

    But when asked at Brainstorm Tech whether Apple has a bright future, Laffont said that "the stock reflects great uncertainty about whether the best days are over." The fact that the markets for tablets and smartphones are already saturated in developed markets, he said, concerns him. As well as the fact that Apple has alway been intent on developing new technology in-house -- a luxury that he's not sure the company can afford anymore. "Apple just seems like everything has to be invented there," said Laffont. "That gets me really worried."

    Laffont, known as a "Tiger Cub" because he is a protege of legendary hedge fund manager Julian Robertson of Tiger Management, said that investing in tech is actually pretty simple. He tries to identify big trends and then makes bets on them. One big idea he's betting on now is the ramp-up in data capacity in homes. In the competition to provide that capacity, "we think the cable companies are in a good position." He also likes the phone tower business, because of the demand for LTE service.

    What is he not bullish on? The road leads back to Apple's core business. "The theme we don't like so much is the people that make the phones and tablets," said Laffont. "But content, we love content. Everyone has a screen and they want more content." The bottom line: "Content, mobile broadband, yes. Hardware and anything related to PCs, no."

    Apple shareholders can take solace in the fact that there is at least one stock that Laffont likes less than Apple right now. "I wouldn't buy Intel (INTC) at any price," said Laffont.