底特律破产也有光明的一面

    其实，投资者和媒体们应该从另一个角度看待底特律申请破产保护。它并不是一场灾难——虽然底特律破产保护的结果如何最终还要经历一段漫长的法律程序，但是最终它可能会变成一件好事，不仅对于苦难深重的底特律居民，甚至对于债务市场乃至对于整个美国都是一件好事。

    这是因为底特律的问题要远比其它城市严重得多。导致底特律破产的核心原因其实是福利问题，只是很多人不愿相信这个另类的解释。

    虽然最近的许多政府债务危机并不是由养老金和福利开支导致的，但是福利问题仍然是几乎所有大城市接下来都要面对的问题。

    底特律的破产使退休工人们随时担忧自己的养老金将遭到灾难性的影响，而这也使一些面临相同问题的城市在与工会谈判时多了一个筹码，可以迫使工会就养老金和医疗保建支出的问题上作出某种妥协。这可以避免很多城市重蹈底特律的覆辙，从而给美国高达3.7万亿美元的市政债券市场注入一些急需的信心。

    底特律财政吃紧的状况已经存在几十年了，主要原因在于政府管理不善、犯罪率居高不下以及人口的日益萎缩。没有哪个城市比这座汽车城更能反映出美国制造业江河日下，城市里随处可见废弃的停车场、关闭的学校和破烂不堪的基础建筑。所以，上周这座城市申请破产保护的时候几乎没有人感到意外。

    人们难免会把底特律的破产保护与其他城市进行对比，因为最近还有不少城市也出现了债务违约或申请了破产。但其实它们并没有可比性。那些城市之所以被推到破产的边缘主要是由于城建项目投资不善，或者是由于资产价值出现了重大变化，与底特律的破产都没有可比性。

    比如宾州首府哈里斯堡今年之所以进入破产管理程序，是因为这个城市投资建设了一个昂贵的垃圾焚烧厂项目，最终这个项目烧掉的钱要远远多于它烧掉的垃圾，导致它无力偿还相关债务。与此同时，阿拉巴马州的伯明罕市由于兴建了一个大型下水道工程，花掉了数十亿美元而无力偿债，只得也申请了破产保护。另外像加州的斯托克顿、蒙罗维亚、夫勒斯诺、猛犸湖等市镇也出现了严重的财政问题。主要原因是由于资产价值的急剧下跌击溃了市政预算的收益面。

    而底特律之所以陷入困境则是由于不同的原因所致。显而易见，城市服务开支过多不是底特律破产的原因之一。毕竟在这个城市，人们在拨打报警电话后，警察平均50分钟内才能赶到现场，几乎是美国其他城市平均11分钟的报警反应时间的五倍。底特律40%的路灯不能正常工作，而且近五年有一半的公园都关了门。它的失业率也达到全美平均失业率的两倍，只有7%的八年级学生拥有合格的阅读能力。

    Detroit's recent bankruptcy filing should be looked at by both investors and the media in a different light. Far from being a disaster -- the outcome of which will inevitably be a very long trip through the court system -- it could end up being a net positive for not just the city's beleaguered residents, but for both the debt markets and the nation as a whole.

    That's because while the severity of the city's problems are far worse than in other municipalities, the core issues that have placed Detroit in front of a judge aren't as idiosyncratic as some would like to believe: entitlements. While entitlement spending and legacy costs aren't behind the recent spate of muni meltdowns, they are something that nearly all major cities will need to grapple with down the road.

    Detroit's bankruptcy and the potentially disastrous impact looming for its pensioners could serve as the bargaining chip cities facing similar issues need in order to force their unions to come to some sort of compromise regarding ruinous pension and health care payouts. This could prevent a number of cities from repeating Detroit's mistakes, which could inject some much needed confidence back into the $3.7 trillion municipal bond market.

    Detroit has been a fiscal basket case for decades, thanks to a toxic brew of bad governance, high crime, and a shrinking population. No other city best embodies the death of U.S. manufacturing than that of Motor City with its abandoned lots, shuttered schools, and rickety infrastructure. So when the city filed for bankruptcy protection last week, few were surprised.

    Detroit's bankruptcy filing has inevitably led to a flurry of comparisons with other municipalities, which have recently either defaulted on their debt or filed for bankruptcy. But such comparisons are off the mark. Those other cities and towns were pushed into insolvency mainly due to inept spending on city projects or because of drastic changes in property values, neither of which is behind Detroit's fall.

    For example, the city of Harrisburg, Pa., was put into state receivership this year after the city struggled to pay off debts associated with an expensive trash incinerator project that ended up burning up more cash than garbage. Meanwhile, Birmingham, Ala.'s bankruptcy filing came about mainly because of a massive new sewer project that flushed billions of dollars of city cash down the toilet. And then there are the flurry of California municipalities experiencing trouble, like Stockton, Monrovia, Fresno, Mammoth Lakes, and so forth. The main issue there is the sharp drop in property values, which has zapped the revenue side of the city budget.

    Detroit, however, is in hot water for different reasons. Indeed, of all of the city's problems, spending too much on city services isn't one of them. This is, after all, the city where the average police response time is 50 minutes, nearly five times longer than the 11 minute average in other U.S. cities. It is where 40% of its streetlights are inoperable and where in the last five years more than half of its parks have closed. Detroit has an unemployment rate more than twice the national average and only 7% of eighth graders are considered proficient in reading.