底特律破产也有光明的一面

    这就是底特律的现实，而且现在它终于开始正视这个问题了。底特律希望债券持有人能给它的应付账款“剃剃头”，打个折，但这可能是个错误的做法。一旦开了这个先例，它以后可能会给自己、甚至连密歇根州政府都带来额外的借贷成本。底特律之所以要借这笔债就是用来付养老金的，所以它首先要下手“剃头”的对象也应该是养老金。

    但是在这种关键的时候，工会并没有与市政府站在一条战线上，而是通过打官司迫使政府全额发放他们的福利。底特律破产之后，工会就没有办法再打官司了，只能坐下来与市政府达成某种协议。这是件好事——问题终于不用继续再拖下去了。但是最坏的情况就是市政府做出某种妥协，仍然保持该市的高税率和低服务水平。而如果底特律不变成一个让人们愿意在这里工作和生活的城市，它的人口、就业岗位和财政收入还会继续流失。因此，底特律市政府应该“硬起来”，对养老金领取者们强硬表态：如果他们不与政府达成某种协议，让城市重新恢复造血功能，那么就让他们喝密歇根湖的西北风好了。

    工会对这种情况怕得要命，而且他们也应该感到害怕。美国法律规定，私人企业取消了养老金后，由美国政府建立的养老金待遇担保公司（PBGC）就要代付工人损失的一半福利。但如果涉及政府机构公务员的养老金的话，情况就不同了。也就是说，如果底特律市政府成功地砍掉了它的养老金，那么作为政府公务人员，理论上就连一分钱的退休金也拿不到了。这恰恰就是底特律应该打的一张牌，而且可能也是它不得不打的一张牌——因为即使底特律所有的债券持有人一夜之间都消失了，同时它把所有的政府员工都撒手丢给奥巴马的医改养老政策，底特律的财政也仍将是一片赤字。

    美国的各大城市和工会都在紧盯着底特律的破产保护案，因为他们在养老金和福利开支上也面临着类似的问题。在工会拥有强大影响力的某些前工业城镇，比如芝加哥和费城，现在也开始削减城市服务开支了。他们正在重蹈底特律多年前的覆辙。比如芝加哥本月裁掉了2,000名左右的教师，目的就是设法支付新增的4亿美元的养老金成本。

    不过，在财政收入与福利成本的规模上，还没有一个大型城市达到底特律这种难以为继的程度。目前，底特律每收入1美元，就要花43美分用于福利成本，而其他大城市最多把其中的20美分用于福利成本。尽管其他大城市近期可能不会发生债务违约，但这并不意味着未来5到10年内也不会发生债务违约。比如芝加哥的养老金成本到2015年就会猛增到现在的3倍。

    对于芝加哥以及芝加哥市长拉姆•伊曼纽尔来说，目前最不可取的决策，就是重蹈底特律的覆辙，继续提高税率，削减服务水平，逼人们逃离芝加哥。现在就是应该与公务员进行谈判的时候了，底特律的破产给这些城市指了一条明路，告诉他们应该如何与退休或尚未退休的市政人员达成某种妥协。同时，工会在看到这出破产悲剧后，可能也更愿意坐下来与政府谈判。因为损失一部分福利毕竟要好于彻底失去所有福利。

    底特律陷入麻烦已经很多年了，但是上周它终于举起了白旗。虽然有人把底特律的破产与其他某些城市进行了比较，但事实是底特律的问题要严重得多。底特律的破产并不是一件坏事，而是给城市注入了新的动力，使工会不得不听政府讲道理，与政府坐下来达成某种妥协，避免城市因为经济和政治错误滑向更深的深渊。这样一来，底特律的领导们和工会起码还能确保这座城市还有支付一部分福利的能力——尽管它支付的金额可能低于曾经的承诺。（财富中文网）

    译者：朴成奎

    This is Detroit's reality, and it is now facing the issue head on. It wants its bondholders to take a haircut on what they are owed, but that would be a mistake. By setting that precedent, the city would potentially raise borrowing costs for both itself and the state of Michigan for years to come. Since Detroit took out that debt to pay its pensioners, that is where it needs to start cutting first.

    But instead of working with the city, the unions have fought it by suing to keep their benefits at 100%. Bankruptcy takes away their ability to sue and forces them to work with the city to hammer out some sort of deal. This is a good thing -- time for delaying the situation is over. But the worst thing the city can do is to strike a compromise that still keeps the city's tax rates high and its services low. It will continue to lose people, jobs, and revenue if it doesn't make the city a nice place where people want to live and work. As such, Detroit should play hardball and threaten to flush its pensioners into Lake Michigan unless they take a deal that allows the city to get back up on its feet.

    The unions are scared beyond belief, and, frankly, they should be. When private businesses cancel their pensions, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) steps in and pledges to pay beneficiaries half of lost benefits. That is not the case with pensions connected to a government entity, which means that if Detroit is successful in canceling its pensions, then its former workers could theoretically lose everything. This is the card that Detroit should play -- and it just might have to -- because even if it wipes out its bondholders and throws its workforce on Obamacare it would still be in the red.

    Cities and unions across the nation are watching the Detroit case as they are facing similar issues regarding pension and legacy costs. Large, former industrial towns with powerful unions, like Chicago and Philadelphia, now have to make the painful cuts to city services that Detroit made years ago. Chicago, for instance, laid off some 2,000 teachers this month to cover a $400 million increase in pension costs.

    To be sure, no other major city is as far gone as Detroit when comparing revenue to legacy costs. Presently, Detroit spends around 43 cents of every dollar it takes in to service its legacy costs. Other large cities pay no more than 20 cents on the dollar. But while a default of another major city isn't imminent, that doesn't mean that it couldn't happen five or 10 years down the road. Chicago, for instance, will see its pension costs triple by 2015.

    The worst thing for Chicago and its mayor, Rahm Emanuel, to do is repeat Detroit's mistake and continue to raise taxes and cut services to levels that make people flee to the suburbs. The time for negotiation is now, and Detroit's bankruptcy gives these cities a blueprint to work off to achieve some sort of compromise with its former and current city workers. At the same time, unions watching the drama play out in Detroit will be more apt to sit down and negotiate. Taking a moderate cut in benefits now is much better than losing them all together.

    Detroit has been in trouble for years, but last week it finally waved the white flag. While some are comparing Detroit's bankruptcy with that of the other muni bankruptcies of late, the truth is Detroit has much bigger problems. Far from being a bad thing, Detroit's bankruptcy actually empowers the city so it can force its unions to listen to reason and work out some sort of compromise to prevent the city from slipping further into economic and political irrelevance. In doing so, Detroit's leaders and its unions will be ensuring that there is actually will be a city left that can pay something -- even if it is less than what it had promised in the past.