美国楼市逆势上涨之谜
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最新的标普/Case-Shiller房价指数（S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index）显示，5月份美国20个主要城市的住房价格同比上涨了12.2%；这项广受关注的指数常被用来衡量美国住房市场的健康状况。周二发布的这项数据高于大多数人的预期，创下2006年3月以来的最大年度涨幅。 自从本轮经济衰退结束以来，很多人认为一旦美国住房市场复苏，美国经济将最终呈现出良好的增势。但历史表明，这个流传广泛的说法其实并不可靠。住房市场的走向与整体经济的健康状况及其走向并没有太多关联。 当然，这并不是说房价和销售不重要。毕竟，美国人的个人财富绝大部分仍然存在于住房，而不是股票等其他资产中。因此，上述说法的逻辑是：如果房价上涨，房屋所有者会觉得自己更有钱了，从而增加支出，进而推动经济增长。 巴克莱（Barclays）美国首席经济学家迪恩•马吉表示，虽然这种说法一般而言没错，但住房市场并不总是与GDP存在清晰的关联，如今住房市场占美国经济的比例已大大小于住房市场崩溃前的水平，这一点当然也不会有帮助。相比2005年年中，住房投资占GDP比例创下6.3%的峰值，如今这个比例已经下降到了2.7%。 仅仅因为住房市场增势良好并不意味着美国经济也会出现良好的增势。历史上多次出现过住房市场反弹或大幅增长时经济增长却没有那么快的情况，反之亦然。去年，美国住房市场以出乎意料地强势增长，而美国经济却继续步履蹒跚；住房投资增长12.1%，GDP仅增长了2.2%。而且，在1987年至1999年间，住房投资年化增长率为5.3%，高于GDP的增幅4.5%。 反之，也有过这样一些时期，尽管经济在增长，住房市场却在萎缩：1965年至1967年间，住房投资年化增长率为-5%，而GDP增长率却达到了5.1%。 马吉说：“我的意思并不是说住房不重要，而是有些时候其他因素可能更重要。” 巴克莱预计，2014年，美国住房投资预计将增长10.3%，而美国经济可能只增长2.2%，数万联邦雇员正在面临强制休假，政府项目缩减。尽管这比完全没增长要好，但这种失衡不容忽视。 今年早些时候实施的加税缩支措施将继续拉低经济增速，据美国国会预算办公室（U.S. Congressional Budget Office）估算，今年GDP将由此缩减0.6%。从8月份起，美国开始取消缩支计划，而且将一直延续到整个2014年。美国国会预算办公室就此进行的一项单独研究显示，取消缩支计划将在2014年底前增加30万至160万新工作岗位；GDP可能因此增加0.2%至1.2%。 因此，虽然美国住房市场吸引了大量的关注，但它其实并不能真正反映当今的美国经济状况。（财富中文网） |
Home prices across America's 20 major cities in May climbed 12.2% higher from a year earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index, a widely watched gauge of the health of the U.S. housing market. This number, reported Tuesday, was higher than most expected and the biggest annual gain since March 2006. Since the Great Recession ended, many assumed that once the housing market recovered, the economy would finally grow at a healthy pace. But as history has shown, this is a myth. The direction of the housing market doesn't say a whole lot about the health of the overall economy and where it's headed. It's not that home prices and sales aren't important. After all, the vast majority of Americans' wealth is still tied to the homes they own, as opposed to other assets, such as the stock market. And so the thinking goes: If home prices rise, homeowners would feel richer and therefore spend more, which would in turn, drive economic growth. While that may generally be true, the housing market isn't always so neatly linked to GDP, says Dean Maki, U.S. chief economist at Barclays. It also doesn't help that the housing market makes up a much smaller share of the U.S. economy today than it did before the market collapsed: Whereas residential investment peaked at 6.3% of GDP in the middle of 2005, it has spiraled down to 2.7% today. Just because the housing market grows at a healthy clip, it doesn't mean the economy will. At various points throughout history, housing either rebounded or boomed while the economy didn't grow as quickly and vice versa. Last year, the housing market recovered in an unexpectedly big way while the economy slogged along; residential investment grew 12.1%, but GDP grew only 2.2%. Also, between 1987 through 1999, residential investment grew faster at an annualized rate of 5.3% than GDP at 4.5%. By contrast, there were periods when the housing market actually shrunk, even as the economy grew: Between 1965 and1967, residential investment contracted at an annualized rate of 5% while GDP grew 5.1%. "The point is not that housing doesn't matter, but there are times when other factors matter a lot more," Maki says. For 2014, residential investment is expected to grow 10.3%, while the economy will likely grow only 2.2% as tens of thousands of federal employees face furloughs and cuts to government programs, Barclays forecasts. This is better than no growth, but the imbalance is hard to dismiss. Higher taxes and spending cuts that kicked in earlier this year will drag down growth, reducing GDP by 0.6 % this year, according to estimates by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office. However, canceling the spending cuts could add between 300,000 to 1.6 million new jobs by the end of 2014; GDP could also be 0.2% and 1.2% higher, according to a separate report by the CBO that looked into the implications of eliminating the spending cuts starting in August and all of 2014. |
