柬埔寨：在腐败泥潭中寻找腾飞希望

美国参与其中，希望带来成果

    美国驻柬埔寨大使威廉姆•托德上任已有一年，但仅仅只是提升了美国金融形象以及柬埔寨的出口可能性，本月早些时候还刚刚举行了一场网络研讨会和赴美商业贸易代表团。“我们需要重新定义柬埔寨的企业和商业形象，”他最近在《向大使提问》(Ask the Ambassador)的网络文章中这样说道。

    托德表示，更多的美元资金将为柬埔寨年轻人带来更高的工资，降低他们“被贩卖的可能性”。柬埔寨70%的人口不到30岁，这样的人口结构在美国-东盟工商理事会柬埔寨国家经理丹尼尔•汉德森看来令人鼓舞。“如果你在金边和大学里与年轻人接触，很多人都非常精明，比一些成人更善于此道……他们使用互联网，他们倾向于阅读国际新闻，他们渴望机会，希望能赶上亚洲其他地区。”

    对于绝大多数处于中下层劳动者的年轻人而言，被贩卖是真实存在的风险。“一旦人们能够在自己的国家赚一份养家糊口的工资，就不再需要寡廉鲜耻的中介帮助，”托德说。他还补充称，美国参与度的上升能增加稳定性。

    贷款机构们警告称，柬埔寨的经济增长可能导致过高的代价。鉴于服装、旅游和农业表现强劲，世界银行将柬埔寨今年的GDP增速预测值从6.7%调高到了7.0%，预计通胀率为3%。但世界银行依然拒绝向柬埔寨贷款；2011年由于暴力强制驱逐，世界银行切断了向它的贷款。银行官员们表示，他们会等到大选尘埃落定后再考虑新的贷款计划。

    柬埔寨需要“基础公共设施，必备的医疗保健和教育服务”，才能成为一个更加安全的投资地。汉德森表示，“另外，他们还需要发展消费者群体。”相比东盟其他透明度更高、经济实力更强大的邻国，柬埔寨尚未培养出一个具有购买力的中产阶级。这个国家大约1/3的人口仍然处于贫困线以下。

    洪森宣称，他已将这个国家从赤贫转变为距离中等收入国家咫尺之遥的状态。但就像很多政府管控信息，有关饥饿、就业和工资的官方数据大多与现实脱节。全球观察人士称，柬埔寨1/3的人口营养不良，更多人生长发育受阻。大多数高中毕业生的最佳前景是进入一家工厂从事高度重复性的低技能工作，每月赚70-90美元。“如果很出色，”一位使馆经济专员表示，“或许有机会进办公室工作”，多赚10%。

    农业工人的月工资为40美元。性服务行业的收入明显高很多，吸引了很多男孩、女孩、男人和女人们，有些人每月收入多达500美元。柬埔寨宪法要求对性交易进行管控，“但这些法律都没有得到执行，”上述使馆经济专员说。“因此，没办法知道究竟有多少人被迫沦为性工作者。”人贩子瞄准贫穷的家庭，提出帮他们养孩子，甚至干脆拐走。

In U.S. involvement, hope for good jobs

    After a year into the job, U.S. ambassador to Cambodia William Todd only raised the profile of American finance and export possibilities in Cambodia with a webinar and trade mission to the U.S. earlier this month. "We need to redefine Cambodia's business and commercial image," he declared in a recent Ask the Ambassador online posting.

    Todd says more American dollars will lead to higher-wage jobs for Cambodia's youth and reduce its "vulnerability to labor trafficking." With 70% of the population under the age of 30, the demographics are promising to Daniel Henderson, Cambodia Country Manager for the US-ASEAN Business Council. "If you engage with youth in Phnom Penh and at the university level, many are more worldly, more aware than a lot of adults ... they use the Internet, they're inclined to read international news, and they're hungry for opportunity and to catch up with the rest of Asia."

    For the vast majority of youth hanging from the lower rung of the workforce, falling into human trafficking is a real risk. "When people are able to earn a living wage in their home country, they do not need the help of unscrupulous brokers," Todd says, adding that a larger U.S. presence can lead to greater stability.

    Lenders caution that Cambodia's economic growth could come at too high a price. The World Bank raised its GDP growth estimate from 6.7% to 7.0% this year, given robust garment, tourism, and agriculture sectors, and forecasts inflation at 3%. But the Bank is still closed to Cambodia; it cut off loans in 2011, reacting to the violent forced evictions. Bank officials say they'll wait until after the election results settle before discussing any new loan programs.

    Cambodia needs "basic infrastructure, adequate health care, and education" to be a safer bet, says Henderson. "And they need to develop a consumer base," he adds. Compared to more transparent and economically stronger ASEAN partners, Cambodia has not cultivated a middle class with purchasing power. And roughly a third of the population falls below the poverty line.

    Hun Sen claims that he has moved the nation from abject poverty to within striking distance of middle-income status. But, like much government-sanctioned information, official data on hunger, jobs, and wages hardly reflect reality. Global monitors say a third of the population is malnourished and more have stunted growth. The best prospects for most high school graduates: work in a factory where repetitive tasks require low skills and the pay is roughly $70 to $90 a month. "If you're a rock star," says one diplomatic economic attaché, "you might work in an office" and earn 10% more.

    Farm workers can expect $40 in monthly wages. The sex industry's dramatically higher pay draws boys, girls, men, and women, with some earning as much as $500 a month. Cambodia's constitution regulates the trade, "but the laws are not being enforced," says the diplomatic attaché, "so there's no way to know how many people are enslaved as sex workers." Traffickers target poor families, offering to unburden parents by taking their children, or simply stealing them.