巴菲特公司财报预示经济向好

    如果把伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway）视为一个风向标，那么这家公司的表现或许预示着美国经济正在加快复苏。

    由亿万富翁“股神”巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔公司周五公布的第二季度营收轻松地超出了预期。该公司是一家联合企业，同时也是巴菲特的投资工具。今年，这家公司的投资和主营业务收入均超过去年。

    伯克希尔公布第二季度的净利润达到45亿美元，或每股A类股收益2,763美元，轻松超出分析师此前的预期。之前汤姆森路透（Thomson Reuters）调查的分析师给出的预期是每股2,093.73美元。它的保险业务收入增加了13%，但由于该部门成本增加，导致利润略有下降。2013年第2季度，伯克希尔非保险业务的收入比去年同期增加了1.7亿美元。它第二季度的总体净利润同比增长了46%。

    此外，巴菲特的投资组合也带来了丰厚的回报，其中主要以知名公司的大批股票为主，包括美国运通（American Express）、可口可乐（Coca Cola）和富国银行（Wells Fargo）。

    今年前六个月，伯克希尔的股票持仓规模增长了18%，超出市场总体表现。同期标普500指数仅上涨了13%。

    但很显然，即便巴菲特执掌的公司也难以回避利率上调带来的影响。伯克希尔持有的债券投资组合规模下降了7.5亿美元，其中大部分由其保险业务持有。

    伯克希尔颇受追捧，一方面是由于“股神”的存在，而另一方面原因在于，对于经济的其他部分而言，这家公司是相对可靠的领头羊。

    伯克希尔控制着广泛的公司业务，包括铁路巨头伯灵顿北方圣塔菲铁路公司（Burlington Northern Santa Fe），以及从家居建材市场获利颇丰的其他公司。过去几年，伯克希尔将大部分现金用于大规模收购，而不是简单投资股票市场。第二季度，伯克希尔与巴西私募股权公司3G资本（3G Capital）完成了对亨氏食品公司（ Heinz ）的收购。

    伯克希尔公布令人振奋的财报当天，美国政府宣布，7月份美国新增就业岗位仅有162,000个，令人失望。

    但伯克希尔的表现也预示着，美国经济仍在持续恢复。本季度，伯克希尔铁路业务的收入上涨了7%，比去年同期增长了4%。而包括本杰明•摩尔（Benjamin Moore）和其他建筑用品公司，以及服装制造商Fruit of the Loom和Russell等在内，伯克希尔其他制造业务的收入本季度上涨了8%。

    伯克希尔的大规模收购或许将使它成为美国经济的晴雨表，但这些收购也改变了这家公司的结构以及投资者对它的预期。现在，伯克希尔更多利用其当前业务、而不是投资的账面价值来衡量收益。账面价值也是巴菲特最喜欢的衡量标准。因此，公司今年的账面价值仅上涨了7%，低于巴菲特投资的收益。

    伯克希尔的投资者依旧会自问：这种做法会增加伯克希尔的风险，还是会让它更安全？目前看来，市场似乎认为伯克希尔更加安全。伯克希尔公司的股价今年上涨了32%。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓

    If Berkshire Hathaway is a guide, then the economy may be picking up speed.

    Berkshire (BRKA), which is run by billionaire Warren Buffett, handily beat expectations with its second-quarter earnings on Friday. The company, which is both a conglomerate and an investment vehicle for Buffett, made more money from both its investments and in its operating businesses than it did a year ago.

    Berkshire reported earnings of $4.5 billion, or $2,763 per Class A share, easily exceeding expectations of $2,093.73 per share from analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. While revenue rose 13% in its insurance business line, higher costs in the division led to a slight dip in profits. Berkshire's non-insurance businesses made $170 million more in the second quarter of 2013 than it did in the same period a year ago. Overall, the company's second quarter earnings were up 46% from a year ago.

    Buffett also posted an impressive gain in his investment portfolio, which is dominated by a number of sizable stakes in well-known companies, including American Express (AXP), Coca Cola (KO) and Wells Fargo (WFC).

    Berkshire's stock market holdings rose 18% in the first six months of the year, outperforming the market in general, which was up 13% in the same time, as measured by the S&P 500 (SPX).

    But even Buffett's company wasn't able to dodge rising interest rates. The value of Berkshire's bond market holdings, which are largely held in its insurance businesses, have fallen $750 million so far this year.

    Berkshire is widely followed because of Buffett, but also because it is a relatively reliable bellwether for the rest of the economy.

    It owns a wide variety of businesses including railroad giant Burlington Northern Santa Fe and companies that benefit from home construction. In the past few years, Berkshire has deployed more of its cash on large scale acquisitions instead of simply investing in the stock market. In the second quarter, Berkshire completed its acquisition of Heinz with a Brazilian private equity firm 3G Capital.

    Berkshire's positive results came on the same day the U.S. government announced that employers added a disappointing 162,000 jobs in the month of July.

    Berkshire's results, though, suggest that the economic recovery is continuing. Revenue from Berkshire's railroad business rose 7% in the quarter. That was up from a 4% jump at the same time a year ago. Berkshire's other manufacturing businesses, which include Benjamin Moore and other building products companies as well as apparel makers Fruit of the Loom and Russell, rose 8% in the quarter.

    Berkshire's acquisitions may make the company a better barometer for the economy, but these moves have also altered the company's makeup and its prospects to investors. Berkshire now generates far more of its gains in book value, which Buffett says is his preferred metric for success, from its operating businesses rather than its investments. As a result, the company's book value this year is up only 7%, far less than the gains of Buffett's investments.

    Still, investors in Berkshire should be asking themselves if that makes Berkshire a riskier business or a safer one? For now, the market seems to be saying safer. Berkshires' stock is up 32% this year.