中日经济形势不容乐观

    利率上升应该也会打击中国市场，从而推升整个亚洲范围内的利率水平。它将严重打击亚洲地区的资本密集型经济体，其中许多经济体正是为服务于中国需求而专门扩大了产能。全球范围内的利率上升，尤其是在“避风港”的美国国债市场，再加上强势美元，应该会重创高估的亚洲货币、引发通货膨胀，而且是在经济衰退的背景下。这会造成经济问题和潜在的社会动荡。

    Hedgeye的高级分析师、敏锐的亚洲观察家大流士•戴尔说，中国的决策层开始表现出不那么担心国内产生资产价格泡沫的可能。这可以给他们带来更多的灵活性，以某种形式的宽松货币政策刺激经济。但任何此类政策举措很可能会逐步实施，见效也会慢得多。

    戴尔提醒称，巨额债务展期会从金融体系吸收流动性，“从而分流面向生产企业的增量信贷”，一般情况下会导致经济增长放缓。也许更关键的是它会对脆弱经济形势造成的冲击，它会分流开工率较低的企业或只是试图渡过经济风暴暂时停产的企业可以获得的流动性，从而阻碍形成稳定的经济基础。

    最后，中国领导人可能会考虑的任何债务展期的影响将几乎肯定不会被私人储蓄的显著增加所抵消。如果没有中国经济提供引擎动力，亚洲经济跑车预计会长期停留在维修站内。

    本文作者是Hedgeye风险管理公司董事总经理，著有《修复破碎的华尔街》一书。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Rising rates should hit China's markets too, pushing Asian rates higher. This will clobber the region's capital-intensive economies, many of which expanded capacity specifically to serve Chinese demand. Rising rates -- globally, but especially in the "safe haven" U.S. Treasury market -- coupled with a strong Dollar, should punish overvalued Asian currencies, sparking inflation, but in the context of economic decline. This spells economic trouble and the potential for social unrest.

    Hedgeye Senior analyst and keen-eyed Asia watcher Darius Dale says Chinese policy makers are starting to appear less concerned about a possible domestic asset price bubble. This could give them more flexibility in some kind of easy-money policy aimed at domestic stimulus. Any such policy move is likely to be slow to be implemented and much slower to take effect.

    Dale cautions that massive debt rollovers generally slow economic growth by sucking liquidity out of the financial system, "diverting incremental credit from productive enterprises." Perhaps more crucial is the impact on a fragile economy, which can hamper the creation of a stable economic base by diverting liquidity away from marginally productive business, or from temporarily unproductive ones that are merely trying to weather the economic storm.

    Finally, any debt rollover China's leaders may contemplate will almost surely not be offset by a significant increase in private savings. Without China to fuel the engine, Asia's economic racecar looks to be in for a long pit stop.

    Moshe Silver is a Managing Director at Hedgeye Risk Management and author of Fixing a Broken Wall Street.