请勿放弃埃及民主

    第二，埃及国内的体制无法干预这种新的民众现象。由于这种体制都是基于特殊利益而形成的，因此它在结构上就存在缺陷，而且也缺乏信誉。正是因为这个原因，这个体制无法将民众能量的爆发引导至有益的领域。的确，与此完全相反的是，体制的弱点滋生了两极分化和猜疑。

    第三，可信的政治领袖的缺失加剧了这个挑战。由于处于无领导状态，2011年起义虽然出现了难能可贵的民众团结，但它却转变成了对急需的革命重心的破坏，这个重心便是从结束压迫历史转变为建设美好的未来。

    第四，缺乏体制和政治领袖的后果要比破坏国内和解更为严重。它会进一步恶化已然令人不安的经济和金融局势。

    埃及经济已经脆弱不堪，然而它的方方面面都在经历着磨难——从增长和通货膨胀到预算和国际收支平衡——因此，这个贫困普遍、收入严重不均、人才利用率低下的国家承受的压力进一步加大。

    如今，所有外国机构都感到无能为力，无法改变这些悲惨的现状。国内短缺问题首先需要通过内部来解决，而前提是埃及国内实现政治和解。尝试通过外部力量解决问题的做法，即使是出于善意，也很有可能收不到任何效果；这种尝试可能还会让缺乏信任的埃及社会走向分裂的深渊。

    但这并不意味着埃及的盟友们应该远离这个尤为混乱的局面。相反，他们应该在短期内伺机行动，同时修正整体的长期策略。就保持与埃及对话这件事而言，美国是对的。在使用武力、包容性政治参与和早日回归民主统治方面，我们尤其有必要通过静默外交手段来重申最大限度克制的重要性。在这一方面，美国提出了一个十分重要的外部观点，而这个观点也得到了其他国家经验洞见的补充。

    我们同样有必要继续修缮美国与埃及开展长期互动的渠道。金融援助虽然很有意义，但却已经失去了它传统的“胡萝卜加大棒”的作用。对比埃及能够和已经从海湾国家获得的援助，美国援助的数量级要小得多；而且援助集中于军用的现状限制了它对社会的影响。

    未来，埃及社会需要更为自主的创业精神、现代持久的体制和加速的技术跨越式发展，这些都将为国家生产力带来实质性的影响。美国可以在所有这些方面为埃及公民提供支持。而且以上这些将最终帮助经济重新回到可持续发展的轨道上来，实现更快的、更具包容性的增长，同时带来一定数量的就业机会和更多的社会公正。

    记住，拥有主人翁意识的公民和左右自己命运的能力比其他事物更为重要。

    Second, Egypt's domestic institutions are in no position to respond to this new grass-root reality. Historically co-opted by special interest, they are structurally flawed and lack credibility. As such, they cannot channel the explosion of grass-root energy into productive ends. Indeed, quite the opposite. Their weaknesses fuel polarization and mistrust.

    Third, the lack of credible political leaders accentuates the challenges. The "leaderless" character of the 2011 revolution has gone from an admirable sign of popular integrity to undermining the much-needed revolutionary pivot: from dismantling a repressive past to building a prosperous future.

    Fourth, the absence of institutional and political anchors does more than undermine national reconciliation. It also serves to worsen an already-worrisome economic and financial situation.

    Every aspect of Egypt's already-fragile economy is suffering -- from growth and inflation, to the budget and the balance of payments -- thus placing even greater pressure on a country with widespread poverty, high income inequality, and underutilized human talent.

    There is little that any foreign entity can do today to alter these sad realities. Domestic shortfalls need first to be addressed internally, with national political reconciliation constituting a precondition. Attempts to insert an external anchor, no matter how well-intentioned, would likely be more than ineffective; they could also serve to divide a mistrusting Egyptian society even more.

    But this does not mean that Egypt's allies should step away from this really messy situation. Instead, they should maintain optionality in the short term while revamping their overall approach for the longer term.

    The U.S. is doing the right thing in preserving contact with Egyptian counterparts. It is important to stress repeatedly, particularly through quiet diplomacy, the importance of maximum restraint when it comes to the use of force, inclusive political participation, and an early return to democratic rule. In doing so, the U.S. provides an important external perspective, supplemented by insights on the experiences of other countries.

    It is also important to continue revamping the channels through which the U.S. will interact with Egypt over the longer-term. Financial aid, while meaningful, no longer plays its traditional "carrot and stick" role. Its magnitude pales in comparison to what Egypt can and has mobilized from Gulf countries; and dominance by military uses limits the societal impact.

    Looking forward, Egyptian society needs more empowered entrepreneurship, modern and durable institutions, and enhanced technological leapfrogging that would materially impact national productivity. The U.S. can support Egyptian citizens on each of these. And all would help in eventually placing the economy on a sustainable path of higher and more inclusive growth, proper job creation, and greater social justice.

    Remember, there is nothing more consequential than a citizenry that feels ownership and an ability to influence its destiny.