历史的启示：底特律重生的三条出路

    橘子县的经验证明，经济增长对于任何复苏来说都必不可少。当地选民拒绝提高税率，但光是增长创造的税收就足以挽回橘子县在破产时失去的那些市政工作机会。

    住房价格强劲上涨也提高了橘子县的税收。加州房地产经纪人协会（California Association of Realtors）提供的数据显示，破产后的五年（1994-1999年）中，橘子县独栋住宅的平均价格上涨了75%。

    底特律市中心遍布破败的弃置房屋，给房地产税收带来了负面影响，因此复苏政策的重点应该放在让人们住进这些房屋。减少弃置房屋数量对房地产税收来说具有双重好处。不仅新业主要纳税，他们入住后周边房地产的价值也会上升。毕竟，没有人愿意跟一所空房子当邻居。

克利夫兰：重塑

    最后一种解决方案是一条政治途径。在寻找短期帮助时，改头换面往往能说服现有和潜在债权人，让他们相信深陷困境的城市需要他们提供的生命线。1978年违约后，克利夫兰更换了市长，它的经验表明这个办法也许行得通。

    和底特律相仿，克利夫兰在破产前流失了大量人口。20世纪70年代，克利夫兰的人口数量下降了24%。再加上经济衰退，造成这座城市无力偿还1,550万美元（9,563.5万元人民币）的债务。

    这批债务的主要债权人是当地的六家银行。市长丹尼斯•库西尼奇筹集资金偿债的努力以失败告终。1993年曾经进行过一项调查，结果库西尼奇在美国历史上最糟糕市长中排名第七。直到乔治•沃伊诺维奇取代库西尼奇成为市长后，这六家银行才同意通过违约债券提供1,050万美元（6,478.5万元人民币）的再融资，同时再向克利夫兰贷款2,570万美元（1.59万亿元人民币）。克利夫兰最终实现了财政盈余，偿还了债务。

    沃伊诺维奇的上任带来了克利夫兰迫切需要的信誉，这也是克利夫兰得到私营企业帮助的主要原因。

    底特律的市长信誉方面存在问题——前市长夸梅•基尔帕特里克丑闻缠身，而且面临重罪指控。现任市长戴夫•宾则则不会谋求连任。

    生意人迈克•达根似乎有可能在即将到来的市长选举中胜出。他曾以改革派的姿态带领濒临破产的底特律医疗中心（Detroit Medical Center）转危为安，这也许能有效地消除债权人对底特律财政管理能力的质疑。

    其他许多城市，甚至包括纽约这样的中心城市，也都曾经身临险境但最终幸免于难。底特律也能做到这一点。但要想实现经济复苏，底特律就要承认必须让自身实现发展，二次创造和吸取历史经验则是它复苏的基石。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    Economic growth is an intrinsic part of any recovery, as seen in Orange County. Here growth alone -- voters refused to approve any tax hikes -- generated the tax revenues necessary to restore services cut in bankruptcy.

    Strong growth in home prices also raised tax dollars for the county. In the five years after bankruptcy, from 1994 to 1999, the median price of a single-family detached home in Orange County increased 75%, according to the California Association of Realtors.

    The prevalence of blighted and abandoned buildings in Detroit's downtown is a drag on property tax revenue, and so recovery policies should focus on filling these buildings. Driving down the numbers of abandoned buildings is a double boon for property tax revenue. Not only do the new owners pay taxes, but their occupancy of the buildings also increases the value of surrounding properties. After all, no one wants to live next to an empty house.

Cleveland: Restore credibility

    The last solution is a political one. When looking for short-term help, a change of face can often persuade current and potential creditors with the reassurance they need to extend a lifeline to the beleaguered city. After its 1978 default, Cleveland's change of mayor showed how this could work.

    Like Detroit, Cleveland suffered heavy population losses in the lead-up to its bankruptcy, seeing a 24% population decline during the 1970s. That, coupled with a recession, led the city to default on debt repayments of $15.5 million.

    Six local banks held the majority of the debt. Mayor Dennis Kucinich, whom a 1993 survey later named the seventh worst mayor in American history, tried unsuccessfully to refinance the debt. It wasn't until George Voinovich replaced Kucinich as mayor that the banks agreed to refinance $10.5 million in defaulted bonds and lend the city an additional $25.7 million. Cleveland eventually produced a surplus and was able to pay its obligations.

    The entry of Voinovich brought some much-needed credibility to Cleveland and was largely the reason the city got the help it did from the private sector.

    Detroit's mayoralty suffers from its own credibility problems -- former Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has a laundry list of scandals and felony charges attached to his name. Current Mayor Dave Bing will not run for another term.

    Businessman Mike Duggan looks likely to win the upcoming mayoral election. His history as a reformer who led the Detroit Medical Center back from the brink of bankruptcy could play well with creditors skeptical of Detroit's ability to manage its finances. Emergency manager Orr's status as a budget-savvy outsider may not hurt, either.

    Many other cities, even major ones like New York, have ventured to the brink and returned. Detroit can do the same, but its economic recovery will require an acknowledgement that the city must evolve. Reinvention and learning from history are the makings of revival.