3D打印黄金时代迟到的5大原因

2.廉价3D打印机降低了市场热度。

    毫无疑问，支撑3D打印的技术过去五年来获得了长足发展，使一万美元以下的打印机也能利用多种原材料成批打出高质量、高分辨率的物品。但据Smartech Markets Publishing公司总裁兼首席执行官劳伦斯•盖思曼称，廉价的打印机依然存在问题。售价低于1000美元（甚至500美元）的3D打印机瞄准的是普通消费者市场。盖思曼表示，关键问题是，这些低端打印机的质量并不理想。

    盖思曼称：“现在开始出现了一些较低价的、如400美元一台的打印机。但我们，以及全行业对这类产品的一大担忧是，如果有人对这类机器期望值过高，在花了350美元买回去一台后却发现它几乎毫无用处，那就会让这类消费者从此对这种概念产品敬而远之了。”

    盖思曼表示，一台2500美元（对3D打印机来说已经不算贵了）左右的打印机确实能打出令人惊艳的东西来，但这个价位对绝大多数家庭来说都不是个小数目。而消费者会为了打点小玩意儿，就想买个350美元的机器吗？只有价格下降，但打印品质仍能保证的情况下，才可能有更多消费者买3D打印机。

3.知识产权仍会诱发各种行业问题。

    盖思曼称，3D打印涉及的领域非常广泛，因此这个行业暂时不需要考虑太多的监管问题。即使要通过某项监管措施，那也会是针对某种应用（比如打印武器）而非技术本身。但这并不意味着诉讼及其他法律问题完全不会阻碍3D打印加速发展的脚步。因为3D打印涉及的资金非常庞大。

    价值上万亿美元的多个行业可能会感到3D打印以及它可能绕过知识产权保护而构成的威胁。尽管相关法律问题十分复杂难缠，但这也难以阻止一些公司，比如汽车零部件行业（每年产值为1400亿美元）通过法律渠道保护自己的利益，从而让3D打印技术或其应用长期寸步难行。相比知识产权盗用而言，还有些问题层次更深。担保、设计授权、相关责任（斯图尔特就说：“如果3D打印的零部件损坏，最终毁了我价值一千万美元的机器怎么办？”）——从法律观点看，相关问题还远不止于这些。

    斯图尔特说：“我跟一些律师讨论过这个问题，结果他们的眼珠就像自动售货机上的转盘一样转个不停。这是个很大的问题。它会涉及到上千亿、甚至上万亿美元，而目前没人知道该怎么解决，相关法律如何执行，甚至连该制订什么法律大家都没概念。”

4.3D打印不是制造业的救星。

    它也不会是“家庭工厂”——至少未来五年里不会是。尽管3D打印技术能提高产品设计师和生产商的工作效率，但它的速度实在太慢了。盖思曼表示，这种技术对大规模定制来说非常适合，但用到大规模生产上就太不靠谱了，而且它也没法生产普通人的日常生活用品。

2. Cheaper printers could have a cooling effect on the market

    There's no question that the technology underlying 3-D printing has come a long way over the last half decade, allowing printers in the sub-$10,000 price range to churn out high-quality, high-resolution objects in a range of materials. But at the lower end of the price spectrum there could be a problem, says Smartech Markets Publishing President and CEO Lawrence Gasman. The emergence of sub-$1,000 printers -- and even sub-$500 printers -- aimed at the consumer market has placed 3-D printing within the grasp of just about anyone. The problem, Gasman says, is that the lower-end printers aren't very good.

    "There's beginning to be a low end to it, something like a $400 printer," Gasman says. "And one concern we have for this space, and it's shared across the industry, if you set the expectation high for what these things can do and someone buys one for $350 and finds that it's next to useless, that will put them off the whole concept."

    You can do amazing things with a printer that costs about two-and-a-half-grand, Gasman says -- a relatively inexpensive machine as far as 3-D printers go, but the kind of expense that warrants a discussion in most households. And will consumers want a $350 machine dedicated to making trinkets? Until quality comes downhill along with cost, widespread adoption by consumers could be muted.

3. Intellectual property could still cause problems for the industry

    The field of 3-D printing is broad enough that the industry doesn't have to worry too much about regulation at this point, Gasman says. Any regulation that might be passed would likely target an application (like printing firearms, for instance) rather than the technology itself. But that doesn't mean litigation and other legal issues might not slow 3-D printing's acceleration. There's simply too much money at stake.

    Industries worth tens and even hundreds of billions of dollars could feel threatened by 3-D printing and the ways in which it might circumvent their intellectual property protections. And while the legal waters get murky here, that might not stop companies in, say, the automotive parts business (valued at something like $140 billion annually) from moving to protect their interests via legal channels, tying up some 3-D printing technologies or applications indefinitely. The issues run deeper than mere intellectual property theft. Warranties, licensing of designs, liability ("what if my 3-D printed part breaks and destroys my $10 million dollar machine?" Stewart says) -- from a legal standpoint there hasn't even been a first, much less final, word on this.

    "I have talked to lawyers about this, and their eyes spin in their heads like the dials on a slot machine," Stewart says. "This is an enormous issue. It is worth tens of billions, hundreds of billions of dollars, and nobody knows how it's going to work out, how it's going to be enforced, or even what the law is."

4. 3-D printing is not the savior of manufacturing

    Or the "factory for the home" -- at least not in the next five years. While 3-D printing technology can make product designers and manufacturers more efficient, it's remarkably slow. It's great for mass customization, Gasman says, but wholly implausible for mass production. Nor is it capable of producing the kinds of things that now rule the average person's life.