新兴市场放缓，英美银行巨头谁最惨

    摩根大通在财报中指出，它拥有风险敞口最多的国家包括中国、巴西、印度和马来西亚。该行表示，它可能在这四个国家损失略高于500亿美元，约为总资本金的约四分之一。

    去年底，花旗表示，即便在最糟糕情形下，它在新兴市场的潜在损失也微乎其微。该行自称在巴西和印度的总风险敞口为62亿美元。但这也同样是对冲后的数据。回到前面说过的政府数据，花旗在这两个国家的现有投资总额为540亿美元。如果这些投资都无法收回，花旗资本金将减少三分之一。

    这还不是银行业可能在新兴市场的全部损失。高盛在最近一个季度表示，根据它在外汇市场的押注和为客户执行的交易计算，它在外汇市场的损失可能高达每天2,600万美元。这低于其买卖随利率波动的投资品种(比如，债券)可能造成的损失每天5,900万美元。但这个数字也不小了。假如高盛在最近一个季度的半数交易日都达到损失上限，另外一半交易日持平，该行将损失7.80亿美元，差不多是第四季度全部净利润的40%。

    好消息是，几乎没人预计我们即将遭遇新兴市场的全面大崩溃。大多数策略师们认为，最可能出现的情形是，中国和其他市场逐渐放缓，美国等发达国家则开始再次加速增长。巴西可能陷入缓慢增长模式。印度的情形可能最麻烦，但几乎没人认为将出现违约。而这就是可能出现的状况。但坏消息是在未来数月或数年的某些时间，投资者可能会耽于忧虑，忘了这一点。（财富中文网） 

    In its financial statements, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) includes China, Brazil, India, and Malaysia among the countries where it says it has the biggest exposures. The bank says it could lose slightly more than $50 billion in those four countries, or about a quarter of its total capital.

    As of the end of last year, Citi said its potential losses in the emerging markets were minimal even in a worst case scenario. It put its total exposure to Brazil and India at $6.2 billion. But, again, that's after hedges. Go back to the government's figures, and total outstanding investment in those two countries is more like $54 billion, which if it all went bad would wipe out a third of Citi's capital.

    And that's not all the money banks could lose in emerging markets. In its most recent quarter, Goldman Sachs said based on the bets it makes in in the currency markets and trades it executes for clients, the firm could lose as much as $26 million in foreign exchange markets a day. That's less than $59 million it could lose a day buying and selling investments, like bonds, that fluctuate with interest rates. But it's not nothing. If Goldman were to hit its maximum losses on half of the days in the quarter, and break even on the rest of the days, that could cost the bank $780 million, or roughly 40% of what it earned in the entire fourth quarter.

    The good news is that few people see us headed for a major emerging market blowup. Most strategists believe the most likely scenario is a gradual slowdown in China and other markets, at a time when developed nations like the U.S. are starting to grow faster again. Brazil could be stuck in slow growth mode. The situation in India might be the toughest to resolve, but again, few are talking default. And that's what will likely happen. The bad news, though, is that there will also likely be days in the coming months and year, when investors are too nervous to remember that.