苹果依然是移动游戏市场老大

    科技界的目光很快将投向位于加州库比蒂诺的苹果公司（Apple）总部。有传闻称，苹果将于本周二发布增强版高端iPhone 5S和价格较低的iPhone 5C。而苹果公司同时还会发布其他设备，特别是坊间一直风传的iWatch智能手表。虽然在竞争激烈的手机行业，苹果一年召开多次新品发布会已是司空见惯，但是本周的新品发布对于苹果公司及其投资者、乃至三星（Samsung）、微软（Microsoft）、诺基亚（Nokia）、谷歌（Google）和摩托罗拉（Motorola）等竞争对手来说，都具有特别重要的意义。

    “苹果用户的忠诚度会受到影响，包括极客和普通消费者在内，”调查研究公司Newzoo创始人彼特•沃曼说。

    这是因为，即将发布的iOS7操作系统将给旧版iPad、iPhone和iPod Touch产品带来影响。今后，大量的应用软件或更新内容将无法在旧版操作系统上使用，大量用户将不得不更新操作系统。

    沃曼说：“这种新情况会迫使消费者考虑是购买苹果新产品，还是购买三星（Samsung）、微软（Microsoft）、安卓等替代产品。如果消费者选择继续使用原有产品，但是不再使用应用软件，那么苹果公司稳定的收入来源将终止。”

    韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）的视频游戏分析师迈克尔•帕切表示，由于三星刚刚发布了Galaxy Note 3手机和Gear smartwatch智能手表，苹果公司需要这种更新来对抗三星的竞争。此外，苹果还面临着来自微软及其新并购的诺基亚（Nokia）的竞争。

    沃曼指出，史蒂夫•乔布斯去世以后，苹果的新品发布会没有带来让人兴奋的产品，很久没有看到科技天才们的欢呼雀跃了。他补充说：“苹果的iWatch智能手表会比三星或其他品牌的产品酷上100倍吗？它是只有苹果才能做出来的独特产品吗？以往都是苹果率先发布一种新产品，而现在苹果成了第二或第三个发布者，。”

    相对于苹果，三星在智能手表方面抢占了先机，这将使两大科技巨头之间的竞争更趋白热化。显然，三星在硬件方面处于领先地位，在数量方面遥遥领先苹果。而Galaxy系列手机的热销让谷歌的安卓操作系统超越了iOS。但沃曼表示，苹果目前是手机业务中唯一一家实现“成功的硬件、操作系统和内容商店三位一体”的公司。

    Newzoo的最新研究表明，虽然GooglePlay商店的整体收入增速较快，但是它的收入只是苹果iOS商店总收入的47%。苹果在过去的新品发布会上与英佩游戏（Epic Games）就无尽之剑（ Infinity Blade ）经销权展开合作，并在商业广告中介绍移动游戏。其中的部分原因在于，从全球来看，任何应用商店三分之一的下载内容是游戏，三分之一的应用软件消费是游戏消费。沃曼估计，仅靠30%的移动游戏消费，苹果今年就能获得将近20亿美元的收入。

    游戏是手机的主要推动因素，而三星强调畅销手机Galaxy S4的游戏功能恰恰说明了这一点。Newzoo预计，今年世界移动游戏的消费将从去年的91亿美元增加至122亿美元，增幅达34%。到今年年底，平板电脑和智能手机的游戏玩家数量将超过十亿。

    “到2016年，移动游戏有望占领全球游戏市场28%的份额，收入约为240亿美元，这是巨大的全球增长机遇，”沃曼说。“美国占全球移动游戏市场的份额低于25%，今年美国人口将产生约28亿美元的移动游戏收入。苹果不超过40%的iOS游戏收入来源于美国。而Google Play的这一比例还不足30%。” 

    The tech world's attention will turn to Apple headquarters in Cupertino, Calif. Tuesday, where the company is rumored to debut the enhanced high-end iPhone 5S and the lower-cost iPhone 5C. Other devices, potentially the long-rumored iWatch, could also be showcased. While new Apple products at press events multiple times a year are now common in the cutthroat mobile industry, this week's event is especially important for Apple (AAPL) and its investors, as well as for the company's rivals like Samsung, Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK), Google (GOOG), and Motorola.

    "The loyalty of Apple users is at stake, both the geeks as well as regular consumers," said Peter Warman, founder of research firm Newzoo.

    That's because the impending launch of iOS 7 will impact users of older iPad, iPhone, and iPod Touch devices. These consumers will be forced to upgrade to a new device because an increasing number of apps or updates no longer will work on the older operating systems.

    "This situation is new and forcing consumers to think about buying a new device, whether it's a new Apple device or an alternative from Samsung, Microsoft, Android, or others," said Warman. "If consumers decide to stick with their old devices and use them for everything but apps, then a steady revenue stream towards Apple stops."

    Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Securities, said that Apple needs this refresh to keep up with competition like Samsung, which just announced the Galaxy Note 3 and the accompanying Gear smartwatch. Apple is also now taking on Microsoft and its newly acquired Nokia.

    Warman noted that since Steve Jobs left, there has been no cheering at Apple press events, no tech geeks jumping up and down. "Will Apple's iWatch look a hundred times cooler than that of Samsung and others? Will it do something that only Apple could have dreamed up? Normally Apple launches products first, now they are coming in second or third," he added.

    With Samsung beating Apple to the punch with its smart watch, the rivalry between these two giants continues to grow. Samsung clearly leads the field in the hardware space, beating Apple in absolute numbers. Sales of Galaxy phones have helped Google's Android operating systems overtake iOS. But Warman said Apple is currently the only company in the mobile business with the "holy trinity of successful hardware, operating system, and content store."

    New research from Newzoo shows that despite higher growth rates, overall GooglePlay revenues still stand at only 47% of the total generated by Apple's iOS stores. One of the reasons Apple has partnered with Epic Games with its Infinity Blade franchise at past press events and featured mobile games in its commercials is because on a global scale, one in three downloads from any app store is a game. Two in three dollars spent on these apps is on games. Warman estimates that Apple will gross close to $2 billion this year solely from its 30% share on mobile games spending.

    Gaming is a key driver for mobile, as evidenced by Samsung highlighting the gaming capabilities of its bestselling Galaxy S4 phone. Newzoo forecasts that worldwide spending on mobile games will grow 34% this year, from $9.1 billion to $12.2 billion. By the end of this year, the number of tablet and smartphone gamers will surpass one billion.

    "By 2016, mobile games are expected to claim 28% of the global games market, generating almost $24 billion and representing a huge global growth opportunity," said Warman. "The U.S. represents less than 25% of the global mobile games market with Americans expected to generate around $2.8 billion in mobile game revenues this year. Less than 40% of Apple's iOS game revenues come from the U.S. For Google Play, this share is significantly lower at less than 30%."