苹果不搞智能手表就对了！

    我们很难想象，在形式和功能方面，苹果还能为智能手表带来哪些创新。可以通过蓝牙通信的内容只有那么多，所以它的选择余地有限。这样一款设备的定价也很麻烦。现在市面上的智能手表，有的只卖25美元，有的售价却高达数百美元。而这些产品的功能基本一样，唯一的区别只是款式不同而已。

    这正是智能手表复杂的地方。一个人戴上这款设备以后，它便不仅仅是另外一款电子产品，而是变成一种时尚配件。进入大众市场的智能手表，不仅要有不同的颜色，还要有各种款式。它意味着，苹果要想在手表市场取得成功，需要提供数十种不同的设计和尺寸，来满足消费者的不同品味。

    苹果肯定不想进入时尚业。它更喜欢外形几乎完全一样的高品质畅销产品，以保持库存渠道不会产生积压。苹果提供过保护套之类的产品，但这些东西造价低廉，而且可以作为第三方市场的模板，告诉他们哪些是可以接受的设计。但如果公司开发智能手表，就必须与几千家公司直接竞争。这些公司竞争激烈，都想在在庞大、混乱的手机配件市场夺得优势地位。自从第一款iPhone手机推出以来，苹果公司就一直避免涉足这个领域(这是明智的做法）。

    例如，在本周的法兰克福车展（Frankfurt Motor Show）上，日产汽车公司宣布推出一款智能手表，可通过蓝牙与日产汽车连接。手表与汽车连接可以跟踪车速等性能数据。这款手表造型时尚，外形很酷。妈妈们会戴吗？当然不会。喜欢开着日产汽车飙车的人会喜欢吗？有可能。这是苹果希望进入的市场吗？绝对不是。智能手表是超个性化的产品，可能会有太多变化，而进入门槛则太低——我是说，连汽车公司都推出了智能手表。

    不过，今年早些时候，苹果在手机行业的主要竞争对手三星表示，它正在研发智能手表。几乎所有分析师和科技观察家都将三星的新闻解释成对苹果研发自己的智能手表这一传闻的反击。两周前，三星推出了新款Galaxy Gear智能手表，与其价高质优的Galaxy手机配合使用。Galaxy手机不论价格还是性能，都是iPhone的直接竞争对手。时间的选择也并不是巧合——三星强烈渴望处处领先苹果。很可惜，三星的智能手表没能收到好评。

    苹果在日前的发布会上并没有推出自己的智能手表，对此，三星公司的高管肯定会大吃一惊。科技专家猜测，iWatch之所以缺席是因为苹果不希望它抢了新款iPhone的风头。或许确有其事，但或许蒂姆•库克和苹果团队比我们想象的更狡猾。可能，当然只是可能，苹果根本没有什么手表。想想吧，到现在为止，没有任何iWatch的照片流出，一张都没有，中国方面也没有苹果正在生产任何手表的报道。或许，iWatch与iTelevision一样，只不过是被杜撰出的东西。尽管过去三年来，外界一直猜测苹果“即将”揭开iTelevision的神秘面纱。（财富中文网）

    译者：刘进龙/汪皓  

    It is hard to see what if anything innovative Apple can bring to a smartwatch in terms of form and function. There is just so much that can be communicated via Bluetooth, so the company's options are limited. Pricing such a device is also tricky. There are smartwatches out there going for as low as $25 and others going for hundreds. They all pretty much do the same things -- the only difference is the styling.

    This is where it gets complicated. Since one wears the device it ceases to just be another electronic gadget and instead becomes a fashion accessory. A smartwatch worn outside of the gym would need to not only come in different colors but totally different styles as well. This means if Apple were to be truly successful in serving the watch market, it would need to offer dozens of different designs and sizes to fit the variegated tastes of their disparate consumer base.

    Apple doesn't want to be in the fashion business. It prefers to mass-market quality items that pretty much all look the same to keep its inventory channels clear. Sure, Apple has offered a case or a "bumper" now and then, but those were cheap to make and served as a template for the third-party market as to what was and what wasn't acceptable. But if it were to develop a smartwatch, the company would be in putting itself in direct competition with thousands of companies all vying for dominance in the massive and disjointed mobile accessories market -- a place it has (rightly) avoided ever since the first iPhone came out.

    For example, carmaker Nissan announced that it had created a smartwatch this week at the Frankfurt Motor Show that would link to its cars via Bluetooth. The watch would link to the car track performance data like speed. The styling of the watch is sleek and admittedly has a "cool" look to it. Would my mom wear one? No. Would someone who loves racing in their Nissan like one? Maybe. Is that a market Apple wants to be in? Absolutely not. A smartwatch is super-personal, and there are simply too many variations and too few barriers to entry -- I mean, Nissan just made one.

    But earlier this year Samsung, Apple's mobile phone archrival, said it was developing its own smartwatch. Pretty much every analyst and tech watcher interpreted the news from Samsung as a counter to the rumors that Apple was developing its own smartwatch. Last week, the company revealed its new Galaxy Gear line of smartwatches to go with its top-end Galaxy phones, which compete directly with the iPhone in price and feature. The timing of the announcement wasn't seen as a coincidence -- Samsung desperately and pathetically tries to one-up Apple at every turn. Unfortunately for Samsung, its smartwatch hasn't been well received.

    It must have come as quite a shock to Samsung executives when Apple didn't "unveil" its own smartwatch yesterday. Technology experts speculated that the iWatch was a no-show because Apple didn't want it to steal the spotlight away from the new iPhone models. That could be true, but maybe Tim Cook and the Apple team are far more Machiavellian than we give them credit for. Maybe, just maybe, there isn't a watch at all. Think about it, there hasn't been one, not one, leaked photo of the iWatch, nor have there been any reports from China that Apple was building a watch of any kind. Could it be that the iWatch is as real as the much fabled iTelevision the company has supposedly "been on the brink" of unveiling for the last three years now?