惠普重振雄风差什么？

    如果要让你来当家，你会怎样重振惠普（Hewlett-Packard）？

    过去约十年的时间里，这是许多技术过硬、经验丰富的CEO们不得不回答的一道难题，但他们大多给出了错误的答案。但对于惠普现任CEO梅格•惠特曼以及她的下属而言，这是一个非常现实的问题。

    在解决这个问题上，惠特曼曾经是最接近成功的人。然而，最近的证据表明她也在节节败退。值得注意的是，惠普将于本月被剔除出道琼斯工业平均指数，因为将要取代它的Visa公司似乎是代表大型高科技企业的更好选择。1997年，惠普与沃尔玛（Wal - Mart）、旅行者公司（Travelers）以及强生公司（Johnson & Johnson）一道被纳为道琼斯指数成份股。而如今惠普将是这几个公司中第一个被剔除出道指的巨头。

    惠普被剔除道指的部分原因在于高科技公司似乎比零售、保险或医疗类企业老化的速度更快。但更主要的原因在于，惠普似乎已经在惠特曼或任何人得以拯救这家公司之前陷入了不可逆转的颓势。果真如此，那么现实将是所有惠普人都不愿听到的：认命服老，接受长江后浪推前浪的现实。

    惠特曼在接受媒体采访时总喜欢反问：一家现金流数十亿美元、收入数千亿美元的公司怎么可能落伍？但答案就藏在惠普的历史中。1999年，在路•普拉特结束精彩的六年半惠普CEO生涯（在此期间惠普股价上涨700%，道指同期上涨247%）离任后，卡莉•菲奥莉娜接任，随后收购了康柏公司（Compaq），准备让惠普迎接21世纪的大好前程。可惜的是，菲奥莉娜预见的新世纪和我们如今所处的、现实中的新世纪相去甚远，因为康柏公司生产的电脑已经不再那么举足轻重。

    后来马克•赫德开始执掌惠普。2005年，惠普在他的领导下发起一系列并购交易，这个策略在几年内都发挥了功效。2010年4月，惠普公司股价升至54.75美元，因赫德通过几笔大胆的收购交易成功将惠普打造成了一家IT服务巨头。

    2010年4月，惠普的股价还在每股55美元附近。而之前赫德已经在2008年作价139亿美元收购了EDS公司，此前也大手笔收购了Opsware公司（16亿美元）和Mercury Interactive公司（45亿美元）。

    2010年4月，赫德完成一项交易（27亿美元收购3Com公司），还宣布了另一项新交易（12亿美元收购Palm公司）。赫德在这些大型交易上共斥资240亿美元，此外还花费数十亿美元收购其他较小的公司。他离任后，他的继任者（惠特曼之前的继任者）——尤其是李艾科——继续斥巨资收购大型公司，包括：23.5亿美元收购3Par公司以及110亿美元收购Autonomy公司。

    What would you do if it fell to you to turn around Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)?

    It's a bit of a trick question that a number of skilled and experienced CEOs have had to answer in the past decade or so, and most of them came up with the wrong answers. But it's a very real question for Meg Whitman, HP's current CEO, and for everyone who works for her.

    No one has come closer than Whitman to cracking that corporate koan. Yet recent evidence suggests she's losing ground. Notably, HP is being dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average this month, since Visa (V) appears to be a better proxy for big tech. HP joined the Dow as part of the Class of 1997, along with Wal-Mart (WMT), Travelers (TRV), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). It is the first dropout of that class.

    Part of HP's Dow exit is because tech companies seem to age faster than retail, insurance, or health care companies. But more of it is because HP seems to have slid into an irreversible decline even before Whitman -- or anyone -- could have saved the company. If that's the case, the reality is what no one at HP wants to hear: Lie down on the cold cotton sheets and enter corporate dotage, the future belongs to the generations that followed you.

    Whitman in interviews likes to ask how a company generating billions in cash and hundreds of billions in revenue could be falling behind. The answer lies in HP's history. In 1999, after Lew Platt stepped down after an impressive six-and-a-half-year run (HP's stock rose 700% vs. the Dow's 247% gain), Carly Fiorina stepped in and bought Compaq to prepare HP for the 21st century. Only Fiorina's new century wasn't the one we live in now, where the PCs Compaq made are becoming less relevant.

    Enter Mark Hurd. In 2005, he embarked on a series of aggressive purchases, a strategy that worked for several years. In April 2010, HP's stock traded as high as $54.75 a share, thanks to Hurd's campaign to remake HP into an IT-services powerhouse through multiple bold acquisitions.

    Back in April 2010, HP's stock was treading near $55 a share. Hurd had already bought EDS for $13.9 billion in 2008, following big-ticket deals like Opsware ($1.6 billion) and Mercury Interactive ($4.5 billion).

    That month, Hurd closed one deal (3Com for $2.7 billion) and announced another (Palm for $1.2 billion). Hurd spent $24 billion on those major deals plus billions more on other, smaller buys. After he left, his pre-Whitman successors -- notably Léo Apotheker -- spent yet more on big-ticket companies: $2.35 billion on 3Par and, infamously, $11 billion on Autonomy.