惠普重振雄风差什么？

    积极的并购交易可以让一家公司进入新的市场，进一步壮大它的实力。当然，它也可能让这家公司焦头烂额地应对复杂的IT整合，一轮又一轮的裁员，以及数十亿美元的资产减记，结果反而消耗了实力。不幸的是，惠普的命运正是第二种情况。到2012年11月，惠普股价已跌至11.35美元，在25个月内累计下跌了79%。同期，标准普尔500指数却上涨了18%。

    惠特曼正是在惠普股价自由落体之际闪亮登场，在2011年成为惠普CEO。但她已经注定要面对更多的裁员和减记，特别是在富有争议的Autonomy公司收购交易之后。但是惠普股价从去年11月开始反弹，表明她带领惠普走出风暴中心、进入平静水域的努力发生了作用。

    上个月，惠普股价攀升至27.78美元，较去年秋季低点回升了145%。接下来，这家公司公布了最新的业绩报告。惠普公布收益报告后，它的股价在几小时内下跌13%，回落到每股22美元。主要是因为最新业绩报告使得市场质疑这家公司是否真的能够华丽转身，尽管惠特曼已经做出许多努力。此后三周内，惠普股价一直保持在每股22美元左右。

    股价下跌与惠普上一季度的业绩表现没什么关系：收入及盈利均符合华尔街分析师业已悲观的预期。个人电脑业务收入下滑了11%，打印机业务收入（惠普长期以来的摇钱树）下滑了4%，企业业务收入下降了9%，金融服务收入降了6%。唯一的亮点是惠普的软件业务，它的收入增长1%来到了9.82亿美元，占惠普总收入的3.6%。

    但这一切均在预期之内。传统个人电脑业务的下滑以及企业在IT服务上的支出停滞拖累了惠普等高科技巨头。但真正导致股价大跌的原因是惠普对未来的预期——无关复苏的东西。惠特曼在电话会议上说了这样一番话：

    “上个季度服务器市场的增长率出现下降。个人电脑市场企稳的程度不及我的预期。我预期的企稳还需要继续等待。最后，企业服务今年表现不错，今年这项业务收入流失进一步放缓……”

    这些让分析师们惊慌失措。花旗集团（Citigroup）担心，惠普的“电话会议揭示了该公司面临的一些挑战”。Needham & Co.公司指出，此前就表示过对惠普能否扭转颓势的怀疑，“围绕惠普的超级乐观情绪终于开始消退了。”还有分析师因为惠普2014年收入无增长的前景感到大惊失措，而企业部门管理层变动则让另一些分析师大跌眼镜。惠普一直希望企业部门成为一个增长点。

    过去一个月内发生的事已经描绘出一种场景：惠普不仅仅是在艰难时期坠落的硅谷先驱，而且即使未来几年也可能没希望重振雄风了。鉴于它的员工总数超过33万人，这样的情景发人深省。惠普被剔除道琼斯指数后还将生存下去。但如果作为硅谷标志性企业的身份也被剥夺，它的境遇也许会进一步恶化。（财富中文网）

    译者：默默

    Aggressive M&A can strengthen a company by broadening its reach into new markets. Or it can deplete its strength by distracting the company with complex IT integration, endless rounds of layoffs, and billions of dollars in write-downs. HP's fate ended up being the latter. By November 2012, its stock had fallen to $11.35 a share, a decline of 79% over 25 months. During that same period, the S&P 500 rose 18%.

    Whitman came in during the middle of that freefall, becoming HP's CEO in 2011. She had her work cut out for her: more layoffs and writedowns, particularly in the wake of the controversial Autonomy deal. But starting last November, the stock rallied, suggesting that her efforts to steer HP out of the storm and into calmer waters was actually working.

    HP's stock reached as high as $27.78 last month, an increase of 145% from its low point last fall. Then came its most recent financial report. The stock dropped 13% to $22 a share in a matter of hours after HP posted its earnings, largely because the numbers raised questions about whether this company could ever be turned around, even with the work that Whitman has done. The stock has stayed around $22 a share in the three weeks since then.

    The reason has nothing to do with HP's last quarter: Revenue and earnings came in line with Wall Street's expectations, which were grim ones. PC revenue fell 11%, printer revenue (long HP's cash cow) fell 4%, enterprise business fell 9%, and financial services fell 6%. The only bright spot was HP's software, which saw revenue rise 1% to $982 million, or 3.6% of HP's total revenue.

    All that was expected. The fall of the old-school PC and the stagnant spending by companies on IT services have hurt HP and other tech giants. The killer was what HP saw ahead, which was not the stuff of recovery. In the conference call, Whitman said things like this:

    "The server market growth rates have come down in the last quarter. The PC market has not stabilized as much as I had anticipated it would. That stabilization is yet to occur. Then finally, Enterprise Services, which is good for this year is the revenues running off more slowly this year ..."

    Analysts kind of freaked. Citigroup fretted that its "conference call unveiled several challenges." Needham & Co., noting its earlier skepticism in a turnaround, said "euphoria is finally wearing off." Others were taken aback about the prospect of no revenue growth in 2014 and still others by the management changes in the enterprise division, an area that HP long hoped would be a growth area.

    The past month has painted a picture where HP is not only a Silicon Valley pioneer that has fallen on hard times, but one where a turnaround may in fact be impossible even in the next few years. Given it employs well over 330,000 people, that's a sobering scenario. HP will survive being jettisoned from the Dow. It may fare less well if it also slips from being an icon of Silicon Valley.