德国总理默克尔的下一个任务：拯救欧洲

    社民党和绿党的许多成员都会对这样的联合执政方式感到吃惊，但实际情况是，除了在税收方面可能存在不同看法，三个党派之间几乎不存在任何实质性的分歧。社民党在竞选中提出增加高收入者税负的方案，基民盟-基社盟则明确反对这种做法。但消化税收的轻微增长对德国的高收入群体来说可能不费吹灰之力，而且如果向基民盟-基社盟保证，此举所得资金将用于偿还债务，就有可能说服他们支持这项措施。虽然德国是欧元区的经济支柱，但它有2.1万亿欧元债务，相当于GDP的90%，因此任何削减债务的措施都会受到欢迎。

    至于绿党，默克尔已经表明双方在环境问题上属于同一阵营——她认可了一项极为严格的环境政策。默克尔对关闭国内核电厂持赞成态度，而且已经下令，要求到2015年可再生能源占德国能耗的比例要达到35%。这些都不是中间派政府应该实施的环境政策，所以绿党在和默克尔联合执政方面应该不存在什么顾虑。如果能够加入一个环保主义政府，绿党应该会将此视为真正的成功。

    默克尔和新的联合执政伙伴达成协议最多可能需要两个月。无论她做出什么样的决定，市场都将予以密切关注，原因是她的决策会对欧洲市场产生重大影响。作为欧元区的最大经济体，德国有能力、也有责任成为领导者。但考虑到德国国内的政治局势，默克尔一直不愿意扮演这样的角色。如果能够通过和绿党及社民党组建大联合政府来最终安定国内政局，默克尔就有可能率先采取一系列措施来保卫欧元，同时让欧元区更紧密地团结在一起。

    要让欧元区经济回到正轨还需要做大量工作。首先，默克尔必须通过手中的权力来推动欧元区构建一个强大而且一体化的银行业。银行业一体化框架原计划在今年底之前确定，但欧盟对这个问题的探讨已经陷入停滞状态，主要原因就是德国方面犹豫不决。这是因为德国的银行体系基本上由几家小规模储蓄银行控制，它们对泛欧监管机构感到担心情有可原。从政治角度讲，默克尔在选举期间支持银行业一体化并不可行，因为这几家小型储蓄银行在政治和社会层面都很有影响。

    既然默克尔已经彻底赢得选举，她就必须说服这些银行，支持银行业一体化最符合它们的利益。要让这几家银行接受这样的观点，坚持把一体化之后的银行业监管部门放在法兰克福，而不是布鲁塞尔或者弹丸之地的卢森堡会是个好的开局。同时，在这个一体化过程中，建立官僚式委员会在所难免，让这些银行的代表进入这个委员会也将有助于这项工作的顺利推进。

    There are many in the SPD and in the Green party that would gasp at such a coalition, but the truth is that there is little if any real differences among the three parties, save possibly on the issue of taxes. The SPD campaigned on a plan to raise taxes on upper-income Germans, while the CDU/CSU categorically rejected that idea. But Germany's rich could easily absorb a slight increase in their taxes, and the CDU/CSU could be persuaded to support such an initiative if they were assured that proceeds would be earmarked for debt repayment. Germany, while a pillar of economic strength, has a 2.1 trillion-euro debt load, equal to 90% of GDP, so any attempt to lower that bill would be welcome.

    As for the Greens, Merkel has already demonstrated that she is on their side when it comes to the environment by embracing an extremely progressive environmental policy. She supported the shutting down of the nation's nuclear industry and has mandated that 35% of the nation's energy come from renewable resources by 2015. Those aren't centrist environmental policies, so the Greens should have little to fear in joining a coalition with Merkel. If the Greens were to get the environmental cabinet post, they would consider that a true win.

    It could take up to two months for Merkel to hammer out an agreement with her new coalition partner(s). Whatever she decides will be watched intently by the markets as her decision will have major consequences to that of Europe. As the eurozone's largest economy, Germany has the ability and the responsibility to lead the eurozone, a position that Merkel has been reluctant to take up given the political situation back in Berlin. With peace finally attained at home through a grand coalition with the Greens and SPD, Merkel can take the lead on a number of initiatives to help secure the euro and bring the union closer together.

    There remains a great deal to do in order to get the eurozone back up on its feet economically. Merkel must first throw her weight behind the formation of a strong banking union. The structure for such a union was supposed to be in place by the end of the year, but discussions have stalled in Brussels, due mostly to wavering from the Germans. That's because Germany's banking system is largely controlled by several small savings banks, which are, understandably, afraid of a pan-European regulator. It was politically infeasible for Merkel to support a banking union during the election, as these small saving banks are influential on both a political and social level.

    Now that Merkel has decisively won the election she must convince the savings banks that it is in their best interest to support the banking union. Insisting that the banking union authority would be housed in Frankfurt and not in Brussels or tiny Luxembourg would be a good first step in ensuring buy-in from the savings banks. Also having representatives from the small savings banks sit on whatever bureaucratic council that would inevitably be formed in such a union would also help smooth things out.