网络股为什么再次走红

    以Facebook为例，它目前的股价是过去12个月营收的231倍，是2013年预计营收的71倍。标普（The S&P 500's）的平均市盈率是19。而Facebook令人晕眩的股价存在的基础是它未来数的年营收能够继续快速增长这个乐观的预期。不过迄今为止，事实证明这家公司的营收并不容易准确估测。而根据历史经验已经证明，将股价寄托于未来数年的利润这种做法充满了风险。

    但是，从网络股的股价看，网络股的投资者中采用这种计算方式的却大有人在。有些公司的市盈率甚至达到了三位数。比如LinkedIn的累计市盈率就高达926，2013年的预估市盈率也高达159。网飞公司（Netflix）2013年的预估市盈率更高：218。而像Zillow和Yelp的市值就更难评估了，因为它们预计今年也难见到盈利，但它们的股价却像是它们的利润马上就要飞速增长似的。

    网络股的这种集体大涨源于对一个特定产业的押注，即移动设备将成为广告服务的主要领地。现在很多人手里都会拿着个手机，每天总要看上十多次，导致大家纷纷想在移动广告服务领域抢一杯羹。同时，由于用户日常活动的相关数据被细致追踪，也使这些广告的传播目标更加精准了。

    但是很多事情可能会过犹不及。对狂轰滥炸的广告感到厌倦可能会让用户远离那些靠拼命弹出广告来挣钱的应用和服务。而公众为保护隐私而反对广告泛滥，或是政府出台限制企业跟踪个人信息的法规都会影响到广告锁定用户的精准程度。广告市场可能会比很多人所预计的更快走向饱和。一句话，目前股价上涨的基础是是一个尽管前景看好、但尚未经过验证的商业模式。

    如果说这种说法听起来像是互联网泡沫2.0版，那也未必。泡沫往往是大规模发生的，即整个市场都被非理性的狂热心态席卷后才会出现。我们现在所看到的是，在一个相对较小的特定市场中，有人摒弃了理性的基本面分析，转而依靠非理性的空头支票来炒作股价。但这种做法并不意味着它是理智的投资行为，也不能说目前的这种非理性不会在某个时候变成狂热。

    可能掀起一场狂热的一大因素是个人投资者是否会受到Facebook及其同类公司飞涨的股价诱惑而纷纷入市。过去15年里，这些投资者两度饱受重创，一次是互联网泡沫的幻灭，第二次是规模更大的房地产泡沫破灭。毕竟，现在这些公司也是很多人熟悉、而且天天使用的品牌，而小投资者往往更倾向于投资自己熟悉的品牌。

    这种投资方式本身不算下策。但更困难、同时也许是也更重要的一点是，搞清楚什么时候一只股票的价位太高，已经不再适合买入。就算网络股目前还没有到达高点，我们离那一天也已经不远了。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远   

    Consider Facebook. The stock is currently trading at 231 times its earnings over the past 12 months and 71 times its estimated earnings for 2013. The S&P 500's (SPX) average P/E ratio is 19. Facebook's heady price is based on optimism that its earnings will grow quickly in coming years. But the company's earnings have proven hard to predict so far. And historically, the practice of basing a stock's value on profits that will come several years down the road has proven risky at best.

    Yet that very attitude seems to have grown commonplace among investors in web stocks, as their valuations show. Some are at triple-digit valuations. LinkedIn has a trailing P/E of 926 and an estimated 2013 P/E of 159. Netflix's estimated 2013 P/E is even higher: 218. Others like Zillow and Yelp are harder to value, since they aren't expected to post a profit this year and yet are priced as if they will soon see profits grow quickly.

    The web rally is a sector-wide bet that mobile devices will become a prime venue for serving ads. Many people have a mobile phone constantly at hand and gaze into them dozens of times a day, making the serving of on-the-go ads a snap and also improving the targeting of those ads as user data on their daily activities is tracked in detail.

    But a lot of things could go wrong. Ad fatigue may steer users away from apps and services that advertise aggressively to keep their profits growing. A privacy backlash or regulation limiting companies' ability to track personal data could limit how effective targeted ads become. The ad market could become saturated faster than many are anticipating. In short, stock prices are rising on an unproven, if promising, business model.

    If this sounds like Internet Bubble 2.0, it's not. Bubbles happen on broad scales, where an irrational and momentum-minded mindset takes over an entire market. What we're seeing is a departure from sane fundamental analysis in favor of irrational hope among a relatively small segment of the market. But that doesn't mean it's sensible investing, or that the irrationality won't grow in time into a mania.

    One thing that could help spur a mania is if individual investors -- burned twice in the past 15 years by the dot-com bubble and the fallout of the even bigger housing bubble -- are seduced by soaring prices of Facebook and its peers. After all, these are also brands that many people are familiar with and use everyday. And small investors are comfortable investing in what they know.

    Which in itself isn't a bad approach to investing. What is harder -- but perhaps more important -- to know is when a stock is too expensive to bother buying. We may be reaching that point soon with web stocks, if we're not there already.