美国政府债券违约将使大银行再遭灭顶之灾

    周五上午，摩根大通（JPMorgan）和富国银行（Wells Fargo）揭开了银行板块公布业绩的序幕，但两者的业绩都不是那么出色。贷款量偏低，净利差缩小，官司缠身，交易业务不够活跃以及按揭市场陷入低迷等因素严重影响了这两家大型银行在第三季度的表现，甚至造成摩根大通出现了几年来的首次亏损。

    但如果本季度美国政府无法恢复正常运转，各家银行上季度遇到的诸多问题可能就会显得像在公园里散步那样轻松愉快。实际上，为化解政府预算僵局而进行的最新努力看来仍不足以解决问题，让周四市场在松了一口气之后的反弹显得有些为时过早。共和党众议员们目前提倡的方案仍然很容易让美国银行业受到各种致命问题的打击，而且许多问题甚至有可能引发2008年那样的金融危机。

    政府停摆问题似乎正在以极快的速度向非常严重的地步发展。共和党最初的打压行动突然变得龌龊起来。现在，数千名政府工作人员和私营分包商将无法按时拿到薪酬，由此产生的负面影响无疑将波及整个经济。

    对那些受到政府关门影响的人，各家银行都试图变得慷慨一些，有些银行甚至允许客户随意透支，以便偿还账单。虽然这对客户来说是件好事，但它意味着银行利润的下降。现在还不清楚银行的慷慨做法还能坚持多久。

    很难说政府长期关门符合银行的最佳利益，因为它会给贷款量带来巨大压力，从而使银行的利润率下降到危险的水平。信贷质量将因此受到影响，从而迫使银行要么降低放贷标准，要么拒绝向潜在优质客户发放一些可靠的贷款。这两种情况似乎都不是非常有吸引力。

    但这还不是全部。联邦住宅管理局（Federal Housing Administration）可能关门，让银行很难发放按揭贷款。如果无法把这些按揭贷款转让给政府，这些银行就会失去一大笔现金。摩根大通和富国银行在美国按揭市场中的份额接近四分之一，这种情况会对两家银行下个季度的业绩产生重大影响。

    政府停摆对银行来说显然不是好消息。如果情况依然如故，也许可以保险地预计，许多银行将在本季度出现亏损。政府关门将一如既往地对银行产生不利影响，但和美国政府触及债务上限后可能产生的巨大破坏相比，前者不值一提。

    首当其冲的是银行资本。不论是好还是坏，银行资本都主要由国债构成。如果美国政府未能提高债务上限，而且出现任何方式的违约，各种国债的价值都将随着收益率的上升而下降。具体降幅目前还无法确定，但短期国债受到的打击可能最为沉重。

    这种情况可能带来灾难性的后果。如果资本缓冲的价值突然下降，银行就会立即缩小放贷规模。最终，银行需要弥补国债贬值所产生的缺口，以满足最基本的资本金要求。这就是说，银行可以在公开市场上借出的资金将减少。对经济而言，这是个不利因素。

    但政府违约带来的最棘手问题可能是它对银行经纪-交易业务的影响。作为交易抵押品，人们对国债和现金一视同仁。但如果政府违约造成国债贬值，整个抵押体系就可能失灵。银行和其他金融机构就会储备资金，因而可能不愿相互拆借，从而造成回购市场崩溃。在交易缺乏足够现金支撑的情况下，经纪-交易商将难逃一劫。这就是2008年贝尔斯登（Bear Stearns）和雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）倒闭的原因，而且非常有可能成为一个导火索，导致大银行遭遇新一轮的灭顶之灾。

    周四，共和党人提出了一项折中方案，也就是提高政府债务上限，从而再满足六周支出的需要，但政府未来还是得关门。这个方案还有待于和奥巴马政府进行协商。除了取消为《平价医疗法案》【Affordable Care Act，即奥巴马医改（Obamacare）】提供资金的医疗器材税，目前还不清楚共和党方面的真正意图。无论如何，这条消息带来了反弹，各个市场都收复了政府停摆以来约一半的失地。

    考虑到政府违约可能带来的所有负面影响，对银行来说，明智的做法可能是充实资本金，做好准备过苦日子，以防政府在新的最终期限到来时仍然未能恢复正常运转。（财富中文网）

    译者：Charlie

    JPMorgan and Wells Fargo kicked off bank earnings season Friday morning reporting some less-than-stellar results. Weak loan volumes, shrinking net interest margins, legal mishaps, lackluster trading activity, and a lousy mortgage market wreaked havoc on the megabanks during the third quarter. It even pushed JPMorgan into the red for the first time in years.

    But the numerous problems the banks encountered in the previous quarter could seem like a walk in the park if the government fails to get its act together this quarter. Indeed, the latest efforts to end the budget standoff in Washington hardly seem adequate, making Thursday's relief rally seem a bit premature. The deal currently being pitched by House Republicans would continue to leave the nation's banking sector vulnerable to any number of fatal ailments, many of which could even trigger a 2008-like financial meltdown.

    The government shutdown seems to be getting very serious, very fast. What began as a Republican power play has suddenly turned ugly. Now thousands of government workers and private subcontractors won't be getting paid on time, the negative consequences of which will undoubtedly ripple throughout the economy.

    Banks have tried to be generous with those impacted by the shutdown, with some even allowing their customers to freely overdraw their accounts to cover the bills. While that is good for the consumer, it amounts to lost profits for the banks. It is unclear how much longer the banks can afford to be generous.

    A prolonged government shutdown is hardly in the best interest of the banks as it would weigh heavily on loan volumes, forcing profit margins at the banks to shrink to critical levels. Credit quality will suffer as a result, which would force the banks to either lower their lending standards or deny potentially good customers some solid loans, neither of which seem very appealing.

    But that's not all. The banks are having a hard time writing mortgages due to the partial closure of the Federal Housing Administration. If they can't sell off those mortgages to the government, then they will miss out on a big chunk of cash. This should have a strong impact on both JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) in their next quarterly earnings as the two underwrite nearly a quarter of the nation's mortgage market.

    The government shutdown clearly isn't a great deal for the banks. If it continues, it is probably safe to say that many banks would be reporting losses this quarter. Yet the shutdown, as harmful as it has been and will continue to be on the banks, is nothing to compared to the magnitude of destruction that would be unleashed if the U.S. breaches the debt ceiling.

    At issue would be bank capital, which, for better or worse, is largely made up of Treasury bonds. If the government does not raise the debt limit and defaults on its debt in any way, the value of Treasury bonds all across the curve will fall as yields spike. It is unclear how far they would fall, but nearer-term bills will probably experience the worst blow.

    The results could be catastrophic. If the value of a bank's capital cushion falls suddenly, then it would immediately cut back on lending. Eventually the bank would need to fill the hole created by the devalued Treasuries in order to maintain minimum capital requirements. That means it will have less money to lend to the public markets, a negative for the economy.

    But probably the most troubling impact of a government default is its impact on a bank's broker-dealer operations. Treasuries are used as collateral in trading and are viewed as being as good as cash. If they are devalued in a default then the entire collateral system would break down. Banks and other financial institutions would be hesitant to lend to one another as they hoard capital, causing the repurchase (or repo) market to collapse. Without adequate cash to facilitate trades, a broker-dealer is doomed. This is how Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, and it will most likely be the cause of the next major bank collapse.

    The Republicans floated a compromise Thursday that would raise the debt ceiling just enough to cover an additional six weeks of spending but would keep the government closed pending negotiations with the Obama administration. At this point it is unclear what the Republicans really want besides the lifting of a medical device tax which goes to fund the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare). In any case, the markets rallied on the news, giving back around half of what they have lost so far since this government sleigh ride began.

    Given all the negative consequences a default could have, banks would be wise to boost their capital and hunker down just in case Washington fails to get its act together by the new deadline.