eBay复兴路上遭遇减速带

    eBay公司（eBay）今年的光景不算太糟，但更准确地说是马马虎虎。经过多年的架构重组和产品线重构，这家电商企业似乎正驶入一片疲软地带.虽不至于让它偏离复苏的轨道，但也正对它产生诸多不利影响。

    2013年至今，eBay的股价上涨了2%。这个成绩不算差，但却远远落后于纳斯达克同期30%的涨幅。它的死对头亚马逊公司（Amazon）股价也涨了30%，而其他大牌科技类企业股价涨幅更高：谷歌公司（Google）涨了40%，雅虎公司（Yahoo）涨了72%，Facebook更是涨了103%。

    在消费者网络业，到底是什么让eBay的业绩相对其大盘股的同行们踯躅不前？部分原因在于，它的业绩2011年就大幅领先于这些同行。当时，公司首席执行官约翰•多纳霍多年来致力于扭转公司业绩的努力结出了硕果，推动公司股价上涨了68%，同时eBay也是首批向市场证明它能在移动网络上挣到钱的科技公司之一。

    所以，eBay现在不再是十年前风靡一时的在线拍卖网站了，它更多算是一家四平八稳、规模更大的公司，主要业务是搭建电商和支付平台，为小型零售企业和越来越多像家得宝（Home Depot）和梅西百货（Macy's）这样的大企业提供支持。

    2011年，eBay的收入增长了27%，2012年增长了21%（达到了141亿美元），但华尔街分析师预计它今年的增速将放慢至约14%。它的股价涨幅因此趋于停滞，因为投资者要看看公司的复苏进程未来几年是否能带来更大的增长。

    上周，当eBay通报第三财季收益时，多纳霍和首席财务官鲍勃•斯万的一席话让大家惊出了一身冷汗，“美国的电商行业严重走软，我们对节日季的销售前景持谨慎态度。”斯万的这番话是为了解释公司对第四财季收益每股80美分的指导意见，而这个数字要低于华尔街一致认为的每股83美分。

    斯万在讨论收益的电话会议中进一步解释道：

    “最让我们担心的情况是，我们认为美国的电商行业增速正在急剧放缓，从康姆斯科公司（ComScore，互联网流量统计公司——译注）调研的第二季度15.5%到16%的增长率放缓到第三季度的接近13%……而十月份我们并未看到有任何积极迹象表明，美国电商行业接下来将比我们第三财季后期所经历的情况会有所好转。”

    这番言论导致eBay的股价应声下挫，而多纳霍在业绩发布会上则提出了所谓“宏观环境相对平淡”这一观点，并在第二天表示，斯万的这番话本意只是想表现得小心谨慎，而不是像它们所显示的那么消极。多纳霍称在接受科技博客AllThingsD的专访中：“我并不认为我们的看法与其他人有什么不同，只是我们率先说出来了而已。”

    这些对第四财季来说都不是什么鼓舞人心的消息——而这段时间对几乎所有网上商户来说都将是最忙碌的时间——但这并不意味着eBay的复苏之路碰到了麻烦。但是，还出现了另外一些让人担忧的迹象——尤其是在移动电商领域，而这是决定它业绩增长的关键所在。尽管eBay上一财季通过移动设备获得了36%的新客户，但这些客户的花销却减少了。这是因为他们大多比较年轻，要么收入有限，要么是来自新兴经济体。

    It has not been a terrific year for eBay (EBAY), but more of a middling one. After years of restructuring the company and retooling its offerings, the e-commerce company seems to be hitting something of a soft patch that, while far from derailing its comeback, is taking a good amount of the wind out of it.

    eBay's stock is up 2% so far in 2013. Not bad in itself but lagging the Nasdaq's 30% gain in the same period. eBay rival Amazon (AMZN) is also up 30%, while other big-name tech companies have rallied even higher: Google (GOOG) up 40%, Yahoo (YHOO) up 72%, and Facebook (FB) up 103%.

    What's holding eBay back relative to its large-cap peers in the consumer web industry? Part of it is that the company outperformed those same peers in 2011, when it gained 68% as CEO John Donahoe's multi-year turnaround effort began to bear fruit and when eBay was one of the earliest tech companies to show it could make money on the mobile web.

    As a result, eBay is much less the auction-oriented site that was an online consumer fad a decade ago and is now a much more staid but larger company building an e-commerce and payments platform supporting legions of small retailers as well as a growing number of large ones like Home Depot (HD) and Macy's (M).

    eBay's revenue grew 27% in 2011 and 21% last year (to $14.1 billion), but Wall Street analysts expect that growth to slow some this year, to about 14%. That has put the stock's rally on pause as investors wait to see whether the turnaround can yield stronger growth in coming years.

    When eBay reported its third-quarter earnings last week, investors were a little spooked by some comments by Donahoe and CFO Bob Swan. "The U.S. e-commerce softened considerably, and we have a cautious outlook for the holiday season," Swan said, explaining the company's guidance for 80 cents a share in fourth-quarter earnings, which was below Wall Street's consensus figure of 83 cents a share.

    In the conference call to discuss earnings, Swan elaborated:

    "The thing that's caused us the most angst is what we believe is a dramatically decelerating U.S. e-commerce growth rate from the second quarter of 15.5% to 16% for comScore to the third quarter of closer to 13% ... We haven't really seen any more positive signs in October than what we experienced through the latter part of the third quarter in the U.S."

    Such comments set eBay's stock sinking until Donahoe, who himself referenced "a fairly lackluster macro environment" in the earnings call, said the next day that those comments were intended to be conservative and not as negative as they came across. ""I don't think we are seeing anything different than others are seeing; we just report first," Donahoe said in an interview with AllThingsD.

    That's not encouraging news for the fourth quarter -- by far the busiest for nearly all online retailers -- but it doesn't mean eBay's turnaround is in trouble. There are, however, other concerning signs -- especially in mobile commerce, a key area of the company's growth. While eBay acquired 36% of its new customers last quarter through mobile devices, they spent less because they are younger and with less disposable income or because they are living in emerging economies.