玩具销售阴盛阳衰之谜

    如果可以用玩具行业的产品来形容这个行业的趋势的话，那么可以说，彩虹小马早已把特种部队踢到了天边。

    目前，女孩玩具销售额已经超过了男孩——而且是远远超过。在今年第三季度，美国两大玩具制造商孩之宝（Hasbro）和美泰（Mattel）的销售额都由女孩玩具扮演主角，而男孩玩具销售额则大幅下降。

    本月月初，孩之宝（HAS） 报表显示，公司净收入为1.725亿美元，相对于去年同一时期增加了5%。女孩玩具的收入快速增加了29%，这得归功于菲比精灵和彩虹小马的流行，以及大学男生对后者近乎邪教般的喜爱，人们把这些人称为“小马迷”（Brony）。与此同时，面向男孩们的产品收入却下滑了17%。

    美泰（MAT） 的情况也类似。芭比娃娃品牌的销售额下降了3%。在恐怖时尚娃娃怪物高校（Monster High）系列的带动下，第三季度该公司其他女孩玩具产品出现28%的增长。价格更高的美国女孩（American Girl）产品的销售额增加20%。不过，面向男孩的玩具表现疲软。玩具车（Wheels）系列全球销售收入总额减少9%，其中包括Hot Wheels、Matchbox和Tyco三个品牌。总体上来看，这家公司的净收入增加了16%，达到4.22亿美元。

    欧睿信息咨询公司（Euromonitor International）的研究分析师马修•霍达克说：“女孩产品一段时间以来一直在引领销售，不过最近才开始快速增长。”

    霍达克指出，随着玩具公司更加关注业务不断增长的区域，这个趋势进一步被放大。例如，美泰公司的美国女孩品牌在上周二宣布将在美国本土之外开设第一家商店。它计划在2014年在加拿大开设两家分店。10月底，美泰推出了面向青少年的Ever After High通话人物玩具。

    作为对比，今年年初孩之宝为旗下的小马产品系列引入了一组新款玩具——My Little Pony Equestria Girls。同时，在传统上属于男孩的射击类玩具之外，它又增加了面向女孩的 Nerf REbelle 玩具，即一款模仿《饥饿游戏》（Hunger Games）中十字弓的产品。

    男孩玩具市场的疲软除了女孩产品销量抢眼这个原因之外，还因为男孩玩具与动作和漫画电影紧密关联。比如，2012年电影《复仇者联盟》（the Avengers ）全球票房总收入超过10亿美元，这种关联是一种优势，可以推动与电影相关的玩具销售额。但在缺少儿童动作大片的年份，比如2013年，男孩玩具销售就会滞后。

    这种关联的好处在于，当电影院上映大片时销售额就会反弹。10月21日，巴克莱一份资本分析报告指出，随着《变形金刚4》（Transformers 4）、《美国队长》（Captain America）和《蜘蛛侠》（Spider-Man）的上映，男孩玩具的销售预计将增加20%。美泰公司CEO布莱恩•斯托克顿在上周三的分析师电话采访中说，公司的增长机遇在于他们即将与漫威（Marvel）娱乐公司达成有关蜘蛛侠和绿巨人的授权协议，同时它还计划在2015年推出星战主题的 Hotwheels 系列玩具。

    If trends in the toy industry were illustrated with its own merchandise, My Little Pony just mule-kicked G.I. Joe into oblivion.

    Sales of girls' toys are outpacing boys' sales -- by a long shot. In the third quarter of this year, girls' toys carried sales at the country's two main toymakers, Hasbro and Mattel, while boys' sales slumped.

    Earlier this month, Hasbro (HAS) reported net income of $172.5 million, an increase of 5% from the same period a year ago. Hoisted by the popularity of the Furby toys and My Little Pony, with its cult-like following among college-age men -- "Bronies" if you will -- revenue from girls' toys shot up 29%. Meanwhile, boys' products revenue slipped 17%.

    Mattel (MAT) has had a similar experience. Sales of the Barbie brand were up 3%. The rest of the company's girls' portfolio saw a 28% sales uptick in the third quarter, buoyed by the Monster High line of ghoulish fashion dolls. Sales of its pricier American Girl products were up 20%. But its male-oriented toys faltered. Worldwide gross sales for the Wheels category, which includes the Hot Wheels, Matchbox, and Tyco brands, were down 9%. Overall, the company's net income rose 16% to $422 million.

    "The girls segment has been leading sales for a while, but very recently it's starting to really ramp up," says Matthew Hudak, a research analyst at Euromonitor International.

    The trend has become all the more exaggerated as toy companies emphasize the business areas that are growing, Hudak says. For instance, Mattel's American Girl brand announced on Tuesday that it was expanding its stores outside beyond the U.S. for the first time. It plans to open two stores in Canada in 2014. And earlier this week, Mattel launched Ever After High, a line of dolls based on the teenage children of fairytale characters.

    Hasbro, meanwhile, introduced My Little Pony Equestria Girls -- a set of dolls -- to its line of pony products earlier this year. It also added the girl-oriented Nerf Rebelle -- reminiscent of a Hunger Games crossbow -- to what's traditionally been a boys shooting game.

    Apart from being out-shined by girls' sales, slacking boys' sales can be attributed to their close ties to action and comic book movies. That's a good thing in years like 2012, when the Avengers movie franchise grossed more than $1 billion at the box office, boosting the sales of toys connected to the film. But in a year that lacks a blockbuster kids action movie, like 2013, boys' toy sales lag.

    The upside of this correlation is that sales bounce back when a big movie hits theaters. A Barclays analyst report on Hasbro from October 21 said that it estimates 28% revenue growth in the boys segment, with the expected releases of Transformers 4, Captain America, and Spider-Man. During an analyst call on Wednesday, Mattel CEO Bryan Stockton touted the growth opportunities related to the company's upcoming licensing agreements with Marvel and Spider-Man and the Hulk characters, as well as the company's plans to sell Star Wars-themed Hotwheels products in 2015.