电动汽车前景看好

    尽管媒体对电动汽车颇有微词，但现在就说要放弃它还为时尚早。目前，包括特斯拉（Tesla）S，通用沃蓝达（Volt）和日产聆风（Leaf）在内，市面上共有8家厂商生产的14款插电式电动汽车。不过它们的销量可不尽如人意。据电动车交通协会（Electric Drive Transportation Association）称，今年迄今为止美国一共只售出了68,000辆插电式混动车和纯电动汽车，而汽车总销量却有1170万辆之巨，两者相比差距悬殊。同时，个数字也远低于业内预期，表明公众除了对电动汽车的续航里程深表焦虑外——比如在漆黑的乡间小路上突然没电了，也非常担心它的高额成本。

    不过，来自普华永道公司（PWC）的一份全新研究却称，电动汽车的未来可能比多数人所想象的更光明。在这份名为《汽车电池最新动态》（Battery Update）的报告中，这家咨询公司调研LG公司、三星公司（Samsung）和三洋公司（Sanyo）等主要汽车厂商和电池生产商后发现，到2020年末，规模经济将大幅降低车用锂电池的价格。普华永道清洁交通实践部的主管奥利佛•哈兹梅说：“这个行业刚刚起步，将会经历很多起伏。但我们仍然深信，电动汽车不是会不会、而是什么时候会普及的问题。”

    他的这种乐观来自于他所目睹的汽车电池大幅下降的价格走势。普华永道称，目前汽车电池每千瓦成本是600多美元，意味着一辆纯电动汽车所需的一块20千瓦电池需要12,000美元——而目前一台普通内燃机的成本大概只有2,000美元。普华永道相信，到2020年电池成本将下降一半到每千瓦300美元，使电池与内燃机的成本差距缩小到4,000美元左右。鉴于电动汽车不需要昂贵的变速箱和传统系统，这个价差还将进一步缩小。

    再考虑到每英里所需的电能要比汽油便宜得多，电动汽车对消费者来说就更具吸引力了——哪怕没有政府补贴也是一样。至于对续航里程的担心，汽车厂商也将提供两种选择让大家消除顾虑，一种是专供城区使用的廉价、短距离电动汽车，一种是用于更长路途、价格较高的电动汽车。比如特斯拉公司就已经开始提供电池容量和续航里程都有所差异的Model S。

    什么因素能让汽车电池的成本降到这种程度呢？普华永道估计，全球电动汽车市场只需要每年增长2.5-3%就行。美国目前的销售增幅大概是5%，欧洲是4%，而中国是3%。要保持这种增幅似乎并不困难。

    至于2020年以后电动汽车的走势，哈兹梅表示，目前正在实验室中测试的新技术到2025年会让锂电池的价格降到每千瓦200美元，将使电动汽车有能力与传统汽车展开正面竞争。哈兹梅由衷感叹：“电动汽车将成为汽车行业的终极追求。”（财富中文网）

    译者：清远        

    Despite rumblings in the press, it's not time yet to give up on the electric car. Currently 14 plug-in models are available from eight automotive manufacturers including the Tesla S (TSLA), the GM Volt (GM), and the Nissan Leaf (NSANY). But sales have been disappointing. According to the Electric Drive Transportation Association, only 68,000 plug-in hybrids and all-electrics have been sold in the U.S. so far this year. That compares to 11.7 million cars sold in total. That rate is well below industry estimates, suggesting that the public is wary of the high costs of EVs plus the dreaded range anxiety -- running out of juice on a dark country road.

    A new study by PWC, however, argues that the future of EVs might be brighter than most think. The consulting firm, in its study "Battery Update," surveyed major automakers and battery manufacturers such as LG, Samsung, and Sanyo, and found that economies of scale will significantly drive down the price of car lithium ion batteries by the end of the decade. Says Oliver Hazimeh, who leads the clean transportation practice at PWC, "It's a nascent industry that will suffer a lot of ups and down. But we still believe fundamentally that the electric car is a matter of not if, but when."

    His optimism springs from what he sees as a steep, downward pricing curve. According to PWC, electric car batteries now cost a little more than $600 a kilowatt, meaning a 20 KW battery needed to power an all electric car runs about $12,000 dollars -- compared to about $2,000 for a conventional combustion engine. PWC believes that by 2020 battery costs will drop by half to $300 a KW, reducing the gap between electric and gasoline to about $4,000. Considering that electrical cars don't need costly transmissions and drive trains, that gap would be smaller still.

    Add in that electricity per mile is much cheaper than gasoline, and the equation for the consumer starts to get very attractive -- even without government subsidies. And about that range anxiety? Carmakers will offer two choices, EVs that are cheap and have a low range for city driving, and ones that are more expensive for longer trips. Tesla already offers different battery sizes with different ranges on the S model.

    What will it take to drive battery prices down this much? PWC estimates that the global EV market will only need to grow 2.5 to 3% annually. Already in the U.S. sales are growing about 5% a year; in Europe 4% and in China 3%. Maintaining this kind of growth rate hardly seems a stretch.

    As for the fate of EVs beyond 2020, Hazimeh says new innovations now being tested in the labs should drive the price of lithium ion batteries down to $200 a kilowatt by 2025, which will make EVs straight-on competitive with conventional cars. Says Hazimeh: "It's the holy grail."