在华行贿案阴影继续困扰雅芳

    上周，雅芳(Avon)公司公布第三季度业绩的时后，分析师们瞄准的却是这家公司正在接受的《海外反腐败法》 (FCPA)调查。

    这项针对雅芳在华业务行贿指控的调查让这家公司付出了沉重的代价，同时还导致了公司高层离职。《财富》杂志(Fortune)去年对此进行过详尽报道。分析师们希望能看到雅芳已经摆脱了这件事情的影响，希望这家美容产品直销公司能集中精力扭转颓势(它公布第三季度亏损，与2012年全年一样)。

    今年6月，雅芳向美国司法部(Department of Justice)和美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提出1200万美元的和解提议，结果遭到拒绝。雅芳CEO谢莉•麦科伊在上周的业绩电话会议上表示，9月份SEC提出了一项和解提议，“其中的经济处罚力度大大高于我们之前的提议。”她表示，雅芳预计美国司法部也会提出对立的提议。

    麦科伊表示，雅芳认为SEC提出的金额没有依据。不过，除此之外，她也没有什么别的好说的了。《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal） 8月份报道，有政府官员表示，对这家公司的罚金应会超过1亿美元。

    摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师达拉•莫森尼亚在近期的一份报告中估算，由于海外反腐败调查引发的担忧，雅芳的市值已经缩水约7.50亿美元——他认为，这个数据说明股东们的担心过头了。莫森尼亚回顾了历史上的FCPA罚款，得出结论称：“假如雅芳支付的罚款额类似于历史上FCPA第10大罚款（9500万美元） … （罚款额）也显著低于市值缩水幅度7.50（亿美元）。”莫森尼亚预计罚款最多是几亿美元，低一些也是有可能的。

    如果最终雅芳的罚款在1亿美元左右，FCPA的执行可能会遇到新的挑战。根据莫森尼亚的回顾，史上只有9笔FCPA罚款超过1亿美元。它们涉及到的公司是类似西门子(Siemens)、哈里伯顿(Halliburton)和BAE系统(BAE Systems)等等与政府合同有关的公司。莫森尼亚写道：“它们的违法涉案金额看起来似乎不是一家直销公司能相提并论的。” （财富中文网）        

    When Avon Products (AVP) reported third-quarter earnings last week, analysts zeroed in on the ongoing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) investigation into the company.

    The inquiry into allegations of bribery, which have focused on Avon's operations in China, has proven costly and led to high-level departures, as Fortune detailed last year. Analysts are eager to see Avon put this issue behind it so the direct seller of beauty products can focus on executing a turnaround (the company reported a loss in the quarter as it also did for all of 2012).

    Avon made a settlement offer to the Department of Justice and SEC in June for $12 million, which was subsequently rejected. CEO Sheri McCoy said on last week's earnings call that the SEC made its own offer in September that "included monetary penalties of a magnitude significantly greater than our earlier offer." She noted the company believes the DOJ also will make a counterproposal.

    There was nothing McCoy could add beyond saying that the company believes the amount put forward by the SEC is unwarranted. The Wall Street Journal reported in August that government officials have said that the company's penalty should be more than $100 million.

    Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian estimated in a recent note that Avon's market cap has lost $750 million on concerns related to the FCPA investigation -- a figure, in his view, that suggests that shareholders' fears are excessive. Mohsenian did a review of FCPA fines and came to the conclusion that "if Avon were to pay a similar amount to the 10th largest FCPA fine in history [$95 million] … [the] amount would be well below the $750 [million] implied market cap drop." Mohsenian expects the fines to come in at a few hundred million dollars at most and that a lower penalty is likely.

    If, in the end, Avon does end up with a fine even in the $100 million range, it could signal a new, tougher era for FCPA enforcement. According to Mohsenian's review, only nine FCPA penalties in history have come in at more than $100 million. They have involved companies like Siemens (SI), Halliburton (HAL), and BAE Systems and were related to government contracts -- "seemingly greater offenses than is likely at a direct seller," Mohsenian writes.