机芯供应危机引发瑞士手表业地震

    与私人银行和巧克力一道，豪华手表是瑞士的标识性产品。根据瑞士钟表工业联合会(Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry)提供的信息，瑞士手表的出口额去年增长了11%，增至创纪录的214亿瑞士法郎（约合240亿美元）。富裕的亚洲和中东消费者在销售额的占比现已在已经达到了54%。

    成立于1983年的斯沃琪集团一直被旧世界的竞争对手视为面向低收入群体的暴发户。在它们看来，凭借时髦设计打天下的斯沃琪石英手表沾污了瑞士手表特有的神秘感。但近些年来，这家公司全力进军奢侈手表市场，先后收购了多个传奇品牌，比如源远流长、可上溯至1735年的宝珀表(Blancpain)，以及被大文学家司汤达和普希金引用的宝玑表(Breuguet)。此外，斯沃琪集团还收购了珠宝品牌海瑞温斯顿( Harry Winston)——在电影《绅士爱美人》( Gentlemen Prefer Blondes)中，玛丽莲•梦露佩戴的钻石就是这家珠宝商的产品。

    同时还拥有欧米茄(Omega)和天梭(Tissot)等中档品牌的斯沃琪集团目前占据瑞士手表总销售额的三分之一。去年，这家公司的净利润猛增26%，飙升至16亿瑞士法郎(约合17.6亿美元)。斯沃琪集团希望削减对外出售的零部件数量，从而为自有品牌留存更多零部件。分析人士预测，通过这个举措，这家制表业巨头有望将自有品牌的销售额提升40亿美元。

    尽管这项裁定对Delance等小型制表商网开一面，但它松散的措辞让人无法确知，斯沃琪将如何选择真正有望购买其零部件的制表商。“斯沃琪集团是‘瑞士制造’标签的看门人，”哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School) 2010年发布的一份瑞士手表业报告如是写道。就连劳力士( Rolex)、百达翡丽(Patek Philippe)和积家(Jaeger-LeCoultre)等知名品牌也使用一些由斯沃琪集团制造的零部件。一只手表要想获得令人垂涎的“瑞士制造”标签，至少一半的零部件必须是瑞士制造的。

    晨星投资服务公司(Morningstar Investment Services)手表业股票分析师保罗•斯温纳德表示，这项裁定并没有解决一些关键性的问题。他说：“如果一家制表商的规模很大，但受到了斯沃琪集团的青睐，那将会怎么样？而如果一家公司是小制表商，但斯沃琪不喜欢它，那又会发生什么事情？”他说。

    洛杉矶精品投资银行圣人集团( The Sage Group)消费品和媒体事务副总裁阿拉仕•法林认为，青睐Delance和康斯登(Frederique Constant)等小众奢侈品牌的消费者可能很快就不得不支付更高的买价。他说：“几乎每家瑞士制表商都在使用斯沃琪生产的零部件。”法林认为，小型制表商或许不得不与竞争对手合并，甚至有可能整体售出。“这项决定的影响范围不应该被低估。”

    20世纪70年代和80年代，受廉价的日本石英手表冲击，瑞士的机械手表制造业几近崩溃。自那时起，这个以墨守成规著称的行业开始缓慢地创新。斯沃琪集团对零部件研发和设计的投资收到了回报，但这家公司一直坚守着自身的形象和声誉。

    但斯沃琪集团的皇冠上的明珠是位于小城格伦兴附近的ETA制造厂。各大奢华手表制造商所使用的机械装置中，超过75%是这家工厂制造的。此外，超过90%的游丝（调节手表的重要部件）是由斯沃琪集团另一家子公司Nivarox-FAR生产制造的。业内人士声称，这是一种“傻子都无法规避”的垄断。作为规模较小的竞争对手，Sellita和Soprod生产的零部件数量根本无法与斯沃琪集团相匹敌；Sellita公司甚至依赖ETA制造厂供应一些组装好的部件。这家公司没有回应本文作者的采访请求。

    康斯登公司联合创始人兼首席执行官彼得•斯塔斯在该公司官网发表声明称，这项裁定是“一颗重磅炸弹”，并补充说，“一些规模较小的制造商将被迫歇业。”德勤咨询公司(Deloitte )发布的2013年行业报告预测称，无力构建零部件生产能力的小品牌将面临更高的采购成本。

    但斯沃琪集团早在十多年前就扬言将逐步削减零部件销量，给予了竞争对手充足的警告。然而，在去年7月份首次受理斯沃琪集团的削减计划时，作为监管机构的瑞士竞争委员会(COMCO)作出了否决裁定，从而使得这项计划的前景变得扑朔迷离。

    Along with private banking and chocolate, luxury timepieces are Switzerland's trademark. Swiss watch exports rose 11% last year to a record 21.4 billion Swiss francs (almost $24 billion), according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, a trade group. Wealthy Asian and Middle Eastern consumers now account for 54% of sales.

    With its quartz-powered, funky designs, Swatch, founded in 1983, is viewed by old-world competitors as a down-market parvenu that tarnishes the Swiss mystique. But in recent years the company has pushed into the luxury market, acquiring storied brands like Blancpain, whose heritage dates to 1735; Breuguet, referenced by Stendahl and Pushkin; and jeweler Harry Winston, whose diamonds draped Marilyn Monroe in Gentlemen Prefer Blondes.

    Swatch, which also owns mid-range brands like Omega and Tissot, now accounts for one one-third of all Swiss watch sales. Its net profit soared 26% last year to 1.6 billion Swiss francs ($1.76 billion). Swatch wants to cut parts sales to have more parts for its own watches; analysts say in doing so, the giant could boost its own watch sales by $4 billion.

    While the ruling carves out an exception for smaller watchmakers like Delance, its loose wording leaves uncertain how Swatch will choose watchmakers to which it will actually sell parts. "Swatch Group is a gatekeeper to the 'Swiss Made'" label," says a 2010 Harvard Business School report on the industry. Even prestige brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Jaeger-LeCoultre use some Swatch-made parts. At least 50% of a watch must be made in Switzerland in order to bear the coveted "Swiss Made" label.

    Paul Swinand, an equity analyst at Morningstar Investment Services who covers the industry, said the ruling left open some key questions. "What if somebody's big and Swatch likes them, but what if they're small and Swatch doesn't," he said.

    Arash Farin, a vice president specializing in consumer goods and media at The Sage Group, a boutique investment bank in Los Angeles, said that consumers who favor smaller niche luxury brands like Delance and Frederique Constant may be soon be paying higher prices. "Nearly every Swiss watchmaker uses Swatch components," Farin said, adding that smaller players may have to consolidate with competitors or sell themselves. "The magnitude of this decision should not be underestimated."

    Mechanical Swiss watchmaking nearly collapsed in the 1970s and 1980s amid the introduction of cheap Japanese quartz watches. The hidebound industry has been slow to innovative, with Swatch effectively subsidizing research and design of parts, but it has clung to its image and prestige.

    But Swatch's crown jewel is ETA, a manufacturing plant in nearby Grenchen that makes over 75% of the core mechanisms used in watches made by luxury competitors. Still another Swatch subsidiary, Nivarox-FAR, makes over 90% of the balance springs that regulate watches. Watch industry insiders call the near-monopoly "bolt to a dolt." Sellita and Soprod, smaller competitors, produce parts in much smaller volumes; Sellita even relies on ETA for some supplies for assembled pieces. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

    Peter Stas, the co-founder and chief executive of Frederique Constant, called the ruling "a bombshell" on the company's website, adding that "a number of smaller manufacturers will be forced out of business." Deloitte said in a 2013 industry report that smaller brands unable to build production capacity for parts would face higher supply costs.

    But Swatch has threatened for more than a decade to taper supplies, giving competitors plenty of heads-up. Along the way, COMCO, the Swiss regulator, confused matters when it initially vetoed Swatch's tapering plan last July.