可能扼杀Facebook股价上涨行情的4大因素

    由于Facebook用户通过移动设备登陆网站，这一点可能限制未来的增长。过去一年，Facebook移动收入增长强劲，主要是因为，一年前这项收入流还非常新，而且不重要。未来几年，这种对比就不会那么显著了。简言之，经过令人惊奇的强劲增长的一年之后，Facebook的增长率可能再次进入平台期。

    Facebook购买新的成长公司可能遭遇问题。一旦一家大公司的内生性增长停滞，常见的做法是收购高成长公司。马克•扎克伯格清楚这一点，这就是为什么他的公司在Instagram即将成为移动设备图片分享行业领袖之时收购这家公司的原因所在。回顾起来看，这笔交易对Facebook比对Instagram产生的效果要好很多。

    上周，阅后即焚图片分享网站Snapchat回绝了Facebook给的一项更慷慨的出价。这个插曲可以理解为，当今热门初创公司不梦想着被Facebook收购，它们渴望取代Facebook，同时保持独立。据报道，Snapchat的创始人们不愿意替扎克伯格卖命，而且公司的风投资助人也对这笔交易也没什么兴趣。

    数以千计的初创公司渴望被Facebook高价收购。但身为初创公司的Snapchats并不是其中的一员——这家罕见的公司与它不断壮大的用户秘密互动。在他们眼里，马克•扎克伯格就是那个统治者。而且，如果你真正强大，你不会把自己卖给统治者，不论对方出什么价。

    Facebook继续面临青少年问题。埃伯斯曼在最近的业绩电话会议中努力为这个问题披上积极的外衣。尽管这家公司“接近完全渗入青少年群体”，他表示，“我们的确发现我们的十几岁少年每日用户数量下降”。这个评论产生了事与愿违的作用，引发对青少年问题新的关注。

    另外一方面，广告主对年龄更大的、花更多钱的人群更感兴趣。另外，如果青少年岁数增长，但却不转移到Facebook的平台上来，它可能会成为一个长期问题。Snapchat原本是用来帮助解决这个问题的，但交易失败只是进一步强化了Facebook竭力跟新一代用户扯上关系的形象。

    最后一个动向不一定是一个走弱的迹象，但值得考虑。上周，埃伯斯曼出售了价值4,300万美元的Facebook股票，占其Facebook持股的9%，售价约47美元。虽然此项出售是预先安排交易计划的一部分，但它同时也是过去10年由一位公司首席财务官进行的数额最高的股票出售。

    这样预先安排交易计划的用意是让出售看起来不像是内部人士抛售的样子，我怀疑这是埃伯斯曼的意图。但关于交易的时机大家还是有话可讲。可以证明，没有人能（比埃伯斯曼）对Facebook的财务状况有更好的把握。如果你的内心感觉告诉你这是一个出售的好时机，它就不是内部交易。但这可能也是其他Facebook投资者想知晓的直觉。（财富中文网）

    译者：杨智     

    Since Facebook users are accessing the site on mobile devices, this could limit future growth. Facebook's mobile revenue growth in the past year has been strong partly because, a year ago, this revenue stream was so new and insiginificant. In coming years, the comparison's won't be so dramatic. In short, after a surprisingly strong year, Facebook's growth rates may plateau again.

    Facebook may have problems buying new growth. When a big company's organic growth stalls, it's common to buy fast-growing companies. Mark Zuckerberg knows this, which is why his company bought Instagram when it was looking to become a leader in mobile picture sharing. In retrospect, that deal worked out much better for Facebook than for Instagram.

    Last week, Snapchat spurned an even more generous offer from Facebook. The episode underscored how today's hot startups don't dream of being bought by Facebook, they long to supplant Facebook, which means remaining independent. Snapchat's founders were reportedly averse to working for Zuckerberg, while its VC backers weren't interested in the deal either.

    There are thousands of startups that would love to be bought by Facebook at a rich price. But the Snapchats among them – the rare beast that resonates mysteriously with an ever-growing audience – aren't among them. To them, Mark Zuckerberg is The Man. And if you're really good, you don't sell out to The Man at any price.

    Facebook continues to have a teenager problem. In the recent earnings call, Ebersman tried to put a positive spin on this. Although the company is "close to fully penetrated among teens," he said "we did see a decrease in daily users specifically among younger teens." The comments backfired, drawing new attention to the issue.

    On the one hand, advertisers are more interested in older demographics that spend more money. On the other, this could be a long-term issue if teens grow older and don't migrate to Facebook's platform. Snapchat was supposed to help resolve this problem, but the failed deal only added to the image that Facebook is struggling to relate to a new generation of users.

    One final development that is not necessarily a bearish sign but is worth considering. Last week, Ebersman sold $43 million worth of his shares, or 9% of his Facebook holdings, at around $47 a share. While the sale was part of a pre-arranged trading plan, it's also the largest stock sale by a CFO in the last decade.

    Such pre-arranged trading plans were set up to allow sales without creating the appearance of insider dumping, which I doubt was Ebersman's intention. Still, there is something to be said about the timing. Arguably, no one has a better perspective on Facebook's financial outlook. It's not insider trading if your gut is telling you this is a good time to sell. It may, however, be an instinct other Facebook investors may want to note.