《财富》水晶球：2014全球大事预测

    下一个布鲁克林和底特律

    过去几年，受两个宏大故事的驱动，繁荣因地区而异的现象备受美国各界关注。其一是底特律，这座城市背负180亿美元债务，养老金成为烂摊子，人口不断流失。其二是布鲁克林，房产价格飙升，豪华公寓林立，店铺里摆满了新鲜上市的食品。但是，这样的“双城记”还将在哪里上演？我们认为，下面这几个城市将在2014年崛起或衰落：

    新布鲁克林

    克利夫兰。这座城市（见上图）的市中心正在复兴，涌现出的威廉斯堡式街区不是一个，两个，而是三个，即：特里蒙特、俄亥俄城和戈登广场。概率: 63%

    路易斯维尔。蓬勃发展的独立音乐节，随处可见的快餐车，每月一次的跳蚤市场（点评网站Yelp评论说，这个市场似乎就像是“网络集市Etsy来到人间”），让路易斯维尔成为这个红州中一个炫目的蓝点（红州与蓝州为美国选举政治术语。红州较支持共和党，蓝州较支持民主党——译注）。概率: 91%

    底特律。低于1,000美元的房租吸引来了不少受过大学教育的35岁以下定居者，他们很有可能成为开拓者。一个耐人寻味的变化迹象是：城里现在已经看不到颓废的涂鸦作品。概率: 39%

    第二梯队：查塔努加，纽瓦克

    新底特律

    罗德岛索基特。这个显赫一时的纺织中心不幸沦为去工业化的牺牲品。随后，经济衰退和州政府援助的大幅削减，进一步加快了它的衰退步伐。现在的失业率是10％。概率: 38%

    波多黎各。这个自治邦的公共债务高达700亿美元，失业率（14.7%）比美国任何州都要高，劳动力参与率（41%）为各州最低。概率: 54%

    弗雷斯诺。这个位于加州中部的农业中心手头上已经没有多少现金，同时还深受持续不断的帮派问题困扰。另据都市研究( Metrostudy)提供的数据，每千户家庭就有94.5户丧失了房屋赎回权。概率: 86%

    第二梯队：大西洋城，印第安纳州加里市。

    The next Brooklyns ... and Detroits

    The American geography of prosperity has been driven by two big narratives in the past few years. On the one hand, there's Detroit, with its $18 billion in debt, pension mess, and population loss. On the other, there's Brooklyn, with its rocketing real estate prices, hip-luxe condos, and freshly foraged food stores. But what's next for this Tale of Two Cities muni-drama? Our bets for 2014's breakout and breakdown towns.

    New Brooklyns

    Cleveland.The city (above) is in the midst of a downtown revival that has seen not one, not two, but three Williamsburg-esque neighborhoods emerge: Tremont, Ohio City, and Gordon Square. Odds: 63%

    Louisville.A thriving indie music scene, food trucks galore, and a monthly flea market (that seems "like Etsy came to life," according to Yelp) now fill this blue dot in a red state. Odds: 91%

    Detroit.College-educated settlers under 35 are drawn to sub-$1,000 rents and the chance to be pioneers. A telltale sign of change: NO HIPSTER graffiti tags showing up around town. Odds: 39%

    Runners-up: Chattanooga; Newark

    New Detroits

    Woonsocket, R.I.The onetime prominent textile hub fell victim to deindustrialization, then the recession, then severe cuts from state aid. Unemployment is now 10%. Odds: 38%

    Puerto Rico.The public debt of this commonwealth is $70 billion, unemployment (at 14.7%) is higher than in any U.S. state, and labor force participation (at 41%) is the lowest.Odds: 54%

    Fresno.The central California agricultural hub has little cash on hand, an ongoing gang issue, and a five-year foreclosure rate of 94.5 per 1,000 households, according to Metrostudy. Odds: 86%

    Runners-up: Atlantic City; Gary, Ind.