《财富》水晶球：2014全球大事预测
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投资者维权行动将加剧 2013年，维权投资者攻破了许多上市公司的大门，哪怕苹果(Apple)、宝洁(Procter & Gamble)和微软( Microsoft)这类最有价值的公司也未能幸免。2014年，他们很可能变得更加大胆。这是因为维权投资者的业绩远远超过了标准普尔指数(S&P)——根据对冲基金研究公司(Hedge Fund Research)提供的数据，在2013年前3个季度，这些投资者的收益率高达25%，完胜标准普尔指数（19%）——从而又吸引了数十亿美元。但在这么多维权活动之后，哪些公司将成为下一个目标呢？不妨考虑以下4种可能性： 纳尔逊•佩尔茨将向沃尔玛发难。佩尔茨向来喜欢跟著名的消费类股票【亨氏(H.J. Heinz)、卡夫食品(Kraft Foods)和百事( PepsiCo)】较劲，当然也不会被全球最大的零售商吓倒。沃尔玛(Wal-Mart)目前的股价显示投资者期望值降低，佩尔茨或许认为一个良机将出现在董明伦2月份接任CEO的时候。概率: 20% 比尔•阿克曼将向卡特彼勒发难。阿克曼因一些失败【彭尼公司(J.C. Penney)和塔吉特百货(Target)】或有争议的投资【康宝莱(Herbalife)】而受到关注，但他也通过重组加拿大太平洋铁路公司( Canadian Pacific Railway)等B2B企业获得了良好的投资回报。卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）曾经是2010年道琼斯指数表现最好的个股，但在2013年，这家公司成为表现最差、被大量卖空的股票之一。概率: 20% 丹•勒布将瞄上思科公司。勒布从来不怵高科技公司；他最出名的战役就是通过震醒昏昏欲睡的雅虎公司(Yahoo)赚得了10亿美元收益。思科公司(Cisco)的业绩一直非常出色，但股票却表现乏力，主要原因是投资者担心好消息不能持续下去。思科公司CEO约翰•钱伯斯曾表示，他计划在一至三年内下台。概率: 15% 卡尔•伊坎将瞄上埃克森美孚。伊坎喜欢跟能源类公司较劲。他曾胁迫CVR能源公司(CVR Energy)拆分，最近还说服越洋公司(Transocean)派发特别股息并削减成本。没错，沃伦•巴菲特最近开始投资埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)，但著名的卖空者吉姆•查诺斯也正在做空这家公司。目前的股价显示，投资者看跌这家公司的利润预期。 概率: 10%。 |
Investor activism will intensify Activist investors in 2013 stormed the gates of even the most valuable companies -- Apple(AAPL, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT,Fortune 500) -- and they're likely to grow still bolder in 2014. That's because activists far outperformed the S&P (earning 25%, vs. 19% through 2013's first three quarters, says Hedge Fund Research), attracting more billions to wield. But after so much activity, who's left to go after? Consider four possibilities: Nelson Peltz will take on Wal-Mart.Peltz likes moving in on famous consumer stocks (H.J. Heinz, Kraft Foods, PepsiCo) and wouldn't be intimidated by even the world's largest retailer. Wal-Mart's (WMT, Fortune 500) share price suggests lowered investor expectations, and Peltz might see an opening when Doug McMillon takes over as CEO in February. Odds: 20% Bill Ackman will take on Caterpillar.Ackman has drawn attention for investments that have failed (J.C. Penney, Target) or been controversial (Herbalife), but he's done well by shaking up big B2B outfits like Canadian Pacific Railway. Cat's (CAT, Fortune 500)stock, the Dow's best performer in 2010, has been among its weakest and most heavily shorted in 2013. Odds: 20% Dan Loeb will take on Cisco.Loeb isn't afraid of technology; he famously rattled Yahoo's cage and made $1 billion. Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) has been performing excellently, but the stock has lagged in large part because investors worry the good news can't last. CEO John Chambers has said he plans to step down in one to three years. Odds: 15% Carl Icahn will take on Exxon Mobil.Icahn is on a roll with energy companies. He got CVR Energy to break itself up and recently persuaded Transocean to pay a special dividend and cut costs. Yes, Warren Buffett recently invested in Exxon (XOM, Fortune 500) -- but famed short-seller Jim Chanos is betting against it. The share price reflects shrinking profit expectations. Odds: 10%. |
