《财富》水晶球：2014全球大事预测

    奥巴马医改计划的成本将爆炸性增长

    支支吾吾了几个月后，奥巴马政府终于承认，《可负担医疗法案》( Affordable Care Act)的长期成本将是最初预测的两倍。至今年秋天，国会预算办公室将根据奥巴马医改计划，把2023年按年度计算的联邦开支预测值翻一番，从1,340亿美元上调至2,700亿美元。医保开支为什么会骤增？其一，这项计划将无法吸引到足够多青壮工人的参与，从精算的角度看难以延续——美国精算学会(American Academy of Actuaries)对此表示关切。其次，采矿和零售等低工资行业的公司将逃离医保业务。比预期更多的公司将放弃医保计划，从而促使工人成群结队地进入根据奥巴马医保计划设立的医保交易市场。

    概率: 70%。

    Obamacare cost will explode

    After months of hemming and hawing, the Obama administration admits that the long-term cost of the Affordable Care Act will be twice what was originally predicted. By this fall the Congressional Budget Office will double its estimates for the annualized cost of federal spending on Obamacare in 2023, from $134 billion to around $270 billion. The reasons for the jump? First, the program will fail to attract a sufficient number of young, healthy workers to sustain it on an actuarial basis -- a concern raised by the American Academy of Actuaries. Second, companies in low-wage industries from mining to retail will flee the health care business. Many more than expected will drop their plans, pushing droves of workers into the Obamacare exchanges.

    Odds: 70%.