2014年，波音能否飞得更高

    航空业咨询公司Brian Foley Associates总裁、行业分析师布莱恩•弗雷说：“目前有很多好消息，但我们不能被这些短期内的利好消息蒙住双眼。从投资者的立场来看，所有事情似乎确实在向好的方向发展，但别忘了这是一个周期性的行业。”

    虽然波音又一年稳坐全球最大飞机制造商的交椅，但空中客车在去年很有可能获得了更多订单（别忘了，空中客车到上周仍然没有公布官方数字，但业内消息人士却非常有信心），这将使波音的欧洲竞争对手建立起可靠的长期竞争优势。而且，虽然波音的商用业务一派繁荣，但它的国防业务却很让人头痛，至少在出口方面确实如此。它的C-17军用运输机生产线计划在2015年关闭。去年，由于韩国选择了洛克希德马丁公司（Lockheed Martin）的新型F-35“闪电”战斗机，使得波音失去了60架F-15的订单，损失了约70亿美元。此外，波音也丢掉了巴西政府价值45亿美元的订单。最终巴西政府决定采购瑞典萨博公司（Saab）的喷气式战斗机，而没有选择波音的F/A-18。

    分析师指出，在商业领域，波音公司也面临着发展缓慢的局面。虽然新一代商用飞机销售态势良好，但这些飞机的交付还需要几年时间。与此同时，当航空公司不断更新产品，力图做到最新最好时，新机型的出现总会导致现有机型销量滑坡。在奥本海默公司（Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.）11月份发布的一份研究报告中，分析师耶尔•雷纳尔和威廉•李指出，“波音公司近四分之一的总利润来自777客机。然而，777X机型的发布似乎使777客机陷入了困境。777X机型开始服役还需要再过6-7年，在此之前777机型不会停止生产。然而，777客机目前只有3.3年的订单储备。”

    然后是最近的劳工纠纷处理问题，蒂尔集团（Teal Group）的阿布拉菲亚说。批评家们认为，波音公司是通过暴力强权，逼迫工人们接受了不公正的待遇。波音公司威胁工人们，宁可花费重金将生产厂址（连同工作机会）一起迁到另外一个州，也不愿在退休金福利问题上作出让步。“他们对供应商一直采取强硬态度，对待工人也是如此。这种处理方式最终会反过来损害公司利益，而一旦发生，破坏性将是巨大的”，阿布拉菲亚说。“波音公司的劳工合同相当过分，51%的条款都是有利于公司的。这么做的结果是，公司的员工非常不满。”

    所有这些情况对波音公司（及其投资者）2014年的收支平衡到底会造成什么影响呢？

    弗利说：“我倒认为，波音公司的股价在2014年会继续上涨；如果公司能交付部分飞机，同时借此取得破纪录的现金流量，它股票的上涨趋势会一直延续到2015年。”来自空中客车以及其它发展中的小型公司——如巴西航空工业公司（Embraer）和加拿大庞巴迪宇航公司（Bombardier Aerospace）——的竞争，在长期看来也会造成波音公司（和空中客车）市场份额的下降。波音公司2013年的订单量虽然没有空中客车那么充足，但在这些订单真正交付之前，它们不会对任何一个公司的净收益产生显著影响。

    "There's a confluence of good news right now," says Brian Foley, President of Brian Foley Associates and aviation industry analyst. "But we can't get blinded by the extreme short term. From an investor's standpoint things do seem to be coming together very well, but it's a cyclical business."

    While Boeing remains the world's biggest planemaker for another year, Airbus very likely booked more new orders last year (again, Airbus doesn't release official numbers until next week, but industry sources are confident), putting Boeing's European rival on firm competitive ground in the long term. And though Boeing's commercial side is thriving, its defense business is taking something of a drumming, at least in terms of exports. Its C-17 military transport production line is slated to close by 2015. A potential $7 billion sale of 60 F-15s to South Korea was scrapped last year as Seoul opted to purchase Lockheed Martin's new F-35 Lightning. Around the same time, Boeing lost a $4.5 billion deal to supply Brazil with F/A-18s when the government there decided to buy Swedish Saab jets instead.

    Its commercial side could be looking at something of a slow period as well, analysts say. While Boeing's new generations of commercial jets are selling well, they won't deliver for several years. In the meantime, the existence of a new generation of aircraft often hurts the sales of existing generations, as airlines move to update their fleets to the latest and greatest. In a research report published by Oppenheimer in November, analysts Yair Reiner and William Lee note that "the launch of the 777X appears to have left the 777 program, which accounts for an estimated quarter of BA's total profit, in the lurch. The 777 needs to hold down the fort for 6-7 years until the 777X enters into service, but currently has only 3.3 years of backlog."

    And then, Teal Group's Aboulafia notes, there's the handling of the recent labor dispute, in which some critics argue Boeing strong-armed its workers into taking a raw deal by threatening to move production (and jobs) to another state at great expense rather than give up ground on pension benefits. "They've been very aggressive with suppliers and they've been very aggressive with labor, and that can come back to haunt you, that can be damaging." Aboulafia says. "This was a very aggressive labor contract, and they got what they wanted by 51%. They also got a disgruntled workforce."

    So where does all that really leave Boeing (and its investors) for the balance of 2014?

    "I'd suspect that 2014 will continue to see Boeing stock climb, and that could continue right into next year as well when they deliver some of these aircraft and record cash when that happens," Foley says. Pressure from both Airbus and from small-but-growing players like Brazil's Embraer and Canada's Bombardier Aerospace will erode Boeing's (and Airbus's) market share in the long-term. And while Boeing's 2013 order book might not be quite as full as Airbus's, that won't impact either company's bottom line significantly until those aircraft are delivered.