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2013年摩根大通到底盈利几何

2013年摩根大通到底盈利几何

Stephen Gandel 2014-01-17
摩根大通过去一年到底赚了多少钱?这家银行官方给出的盈利数据接近180亿美元。但事实上,综合计算诉讼支出、回拨的损失计提准备金等各项数字,吉米•戴蒙领导下的这家银行实际上赚的钱要比账面多出近40亿美元。

    此外,摩根大通还有其他非经营性损益。这包括转让Visa公司股份和曼哈顿下城一幢建筑物得到的11亿美元收益,以及调整会计方法后出现的12亿美元损失。二者相抵后,该行净利润将增加1亿美元,升至266亿美元。

    不过,在摩根大通公布的利润中,有一部分实际上并不是来自2013年。这就好像该行向某人出售了产品,比方说贷款,随后拿到了后者支付的款项。和其他所有银行一样,摩根大通必须为今后可能出现的损失计提准备金。有时候准备金会计提得过多。金融危机达到顶峰时,情况似乎就是这样。现在,摩根大通正在回拨这笔准备金,而回拨的资金将直接转化为利润。不过,和诉讼成本一样,这部分资金确实是非经营性收益。2013年,摩根大通回拨了57亿美元准备金。扣除这笔收益,它的利润就会下降到209亿美元。

    答案即将浮出水面。摩根大通还将2013年抵押贷款债权事务性服务权利(mortgage servicing rights)的价值下调了11亿美元——这是银行在收账时出现的负债,可以随贷款一同转让给投资者。下调其价值意味着摩根大通预计今后这项业务带来的收入将减少。毕竟,这家银行发放的抵押贷款已经少于几年前。而且,这不是实际费用,因此让我们把它加回到摩根大通的利润之中。我们得到的最终数字是220亿美元,比这家银行公布的利润多了22%。

    这个数字稍高于2012年摩根大通公布的利润。按同样方法进行调整后,2012年该行的利润约为218亿美元。作为在利润方面和摩根大通不相上下的对手,富国银行(Wells Fargo)公布的2013年利润为219亿美元,低于我们测算的数字。当然,我还没有对富国银行的数据进行调整。

    相对于盈利,有一点需要警惕,那就是2013年摩根大通的收入连续第三年下跌,只不过跌幅很小。

    过去的一年中,摩根大通出现了数百亿美元的诉讼费用。有人问道,它的股价为什么还能不断攀升,而且全年涨幅超过30%呢?答案只有一个:摩根大通在这一年的表现实际上相当不错。(财富中文网)

    译者:Charlie   

    On top of that, JPMorgan had other one-time gains and charges: $1.1 billion in gains from selling Visa shares and a building in lower Manhattan, and $1.2 billion in losses from accounting adjustments. Net those out and its income goes up by $100 million to $26.6 billion.

    But some of the profits that JPMorgan did include in its reported number wasn't money it actually made in 2013, in the sense that it sold someone a product like a loan and collected a payment for that. JPMorgan, like all banks, has to put away reserves for future potential losses it could have. Sometimes it puts too much away. And it appears that's what happened in the heart of the financial crisis. Now it's taking money out of that account, and when it does, that money goes right to the bottom line. But like the legal costs, that's really a one-time gain. The bank got $5.7 billion from reserve releases in 2013. Take it out, and profits fall to $20.9 billion.

    Almost there. JPMorgan lowered the value of its mortgage servicing rights -- the obligation that a bank takes on to collect payments and pass those along on the loans it sells to investors -- by $1.1 billion in 2013. That reflects that the bank expects to get less revenue from that business in the future. It is, after all, issuing fewer mortgages than it did a few years ago. Still, that's not a real expense. So, let's back that out, too.

    Our final tally: $22 billion, or 22% more than what the bank said it made.

    That's up slightly from last year's reported profits, which, when adjusted in the same way, would have been around $21.8 billion. And it's more than the $21.9 billion that Wells Fargo (WFC), JPMorgan's closed profit rival, said it earned in 2013, though I haven't adjusted that.

    The one caveat to all this is that JPMorgan's revenue in 2013 fell for the third year in a row. But it was only down slightly.

    In the past year, JPMorgan shelled out tens of billions of dollars in legal fees, and some have questioned why the company's stock price has continued to rise, by over 30% in 2013. One answer: JPMorgan actually had a pretty good year.

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