比特币即将颠覆金融业

    这种点对点金融和智能合同最具投机性和长期潜在功能的是众所周知的各种形态的“智能资产”。这个理念首先是由计算机科学家和乔治华盛顿大学（George Washington University）的前法学教授尼克•绍博（他经常被人怀疑就是匿名的比特币创始人中本聪）在1997年发表的一篇论文中探讨的。绍博在这篇论文中把智能合同定义为不是由法律、而是由那些将“完全嵌入财产及处置它们的合同条款中的”硬件和软件强制执行的协议。他用简单的自动售货机作为现成的例子。但是将通讯技术和比特币数据区块链结合起来就能开拓更具吸引力的前景——比如，那些能够读取数据区块链的汽车如果没有及时还贷就可以自行停驶。与神秘的中本聪齐名的比特币架构的主要开发者之一麦克•赫恩曾表示，这个理念要得以实现至少还需要十年，因为它需要实体商品进行硬件升级。

    在比特币拥趸们的口中，能通过比特币网络自动实现的金融功能似乎无穷无尽，比如点对点投资基金，类似Kickstarter的众筹，强制性仲裁，甚至包括命名权管理和加密通讯这样跟金融无关的事务。而且所有这些都不再需要假手中介就能完成。对比特币党人来说，不管是开发者还是普通用户，他们似乎常常因为这样一种想法而暗自得意，也就是说，他们正对华尔街那些金融机构的控制权和利润构成威胁。在他们眼里，这些机构就是靠寻租发家的暴发户。哪怕仅限于降低支付和转账费用，比特币对现在这些金融机构的威胁也是巨大的。而如果考虑到不久的将来大量金融服务都将完全无需佣金，那就更有理由要加倍提防了。

    米德尔顿宣称“我现在所做的就是对庞大的商业银行的直接威胁”时，他听起来有点像是个18世纪反抗帝国统治的海盗。对他来说，光知道为了比特币价值的起起伏伏而激动是一种不得要领的表现：“人们光坐着想比特币到底是不是个泡沫时，其实还谈不上什么威胁。但当人们深入了解比特币协议并展开想象时，他们才会意识到现有体系确实是受到了威胁。”

    不过，这场即将到来的革命面前还存在一个巨大的阻碍。尽管2013年已经涌现出Coinbase这样大幅优化比特币交易流程的交易平台，但要快速可靠地用比特币来兑换美元依然很困难。现在还不清楚，如果没有一个快速可靠的美元和比特币交易的平台，米德尔顿所谓的美元和比特币的自动对冲交易怎么才能可行。所以，比特币的各种功能要真正实现“自动化”，并与整体经济相融合，可能还是要与现存各类交易平台整合起来才行。

    在Mastercoin的发言人多米尼克•泽尼斯眼里，即将到来的转变则更温和也更微妙。他根据20世纪经济学家约瑟夫•熊彼得的颠覆式创新理论将现在的情况和能源业做了个类比：“我们还在（烧）柴。烧煤的电厂也很多。这些都没有消失，而（新技术）才刚刚开始冒头。”当然，一般来说，新技术最终会证明自己更有力，也常常更有利可图。泽尼斯预计，有些金融机构会足够灵活，适者生存。“如果我是一家投资公司，我会把（点对点金融）视为一个机遇。我是因为它……更有效率就顺势而为呢，还是我对此根本不做投资，然后过了10到20年等着被市场淘汰呢？”

    所以说，所有银行家和股票经纪人可能都不会走煤矿工人、电话接线员或唱片店店员的老路。但是，其他被颠覆行业的惨痛教训现在可能会以前所未有的方式被金融机构所吸取。（财富中文网）

    译者：清远

    The most speculative and long-range potential functions of peer-to-peer finance and smart contracts are forms of what's known as "Smart Property." This idea was explored in a 1997 paper by computer scientist and former George Washington University law professor Nick Szabo (who has come under occasional suspicion of being pseudonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto). In the paper, Szabo defines smart contracts as agreements enforced not by law, but by hardware or software that would "fully embed in property the contractual terms which deal with it." Szabo offers the humble vending machine as an existing case. But combining telecommunications with the Bitcoin blockchain presents more intriguing possibilities -- for example, cars able to read the blockchain could disable themselves if a loan payment wasn't made on time. Mike Hearn, one of the main developers of the Bitcoin architecture alongside the mysterious Nakamoto, has said that any implementation of the concept is at least a decade away because of the need for hardware upgrades on physical goods.

    The functions that advocates say could be automated through the Bitcoin network seem nearly endless, including peer-to-peer investment funds, Kickstarter-like crowdfunding, binding arbitrations, and even non-financial transactions such as naming rights management and encrypted communication. And all could be executed without a cut for intermediaries. Bitcoin partisans, from developers down to rank-and-file users, often seem to revel in the idea that they are threatening the control and profits of Wall Street institutions, who they see as rent-seeking fat cats. If it were limited to the loss of fees on payments and transfers, bitcoin's threat to existing financial institutions would still be substantial. But with a full array of commission-free financial services on the horizon, there is even more reason to take heed.

    Middleton sounds a bit like an 18th-century pirate striking back against the Empire when he declares that "what I'm doing right now is a direct threat to fiat merchant banking." For him, excitement over value fluctuations in the bitcoin currency is missing the point: "It's not a threat as people sit there and ponder whether bitcoin is a bubble or not. But if people go through the protocol and use their imagination, the existing system is threatened."

    However, there is a substantial obstacle to this coming revolution. Despite the emergence in 2013 of entities like Coinbase that have drastically streamlined the process, it is still difficult to exchange bitcoin for national currencies in a quick, reliable manner. It's unclear how Middleton's automated dollar-bitcoin hedging will work without a lightning-quick and reliable dollar-bitcoin exchange platform. So, the true "automation" of bitcoin functions that integrate with the economy as a whole may require a reconciliation with existing trading platforms.

    Dominik Zynis, the Mastercoin spokesperson, sees a gentler, more granular transition. Citing studies on disruptive innovation by the likes of 20th-century economist Joseph Shumpeter, he makes an analogy with the energy industry. "We're still [burning] wood. There's coal-fired power plants. Those didn't go away, [new technology] just got added on top." Usually, of course, that new technology has ultimately proven more powerful, and often enough more profitable. Some financial institutions, Zynis predicts, will be nimble enough to adapt. "If I'm an investment firm, do I see [peer-to-peer finance] as an opportunity, and adopt it, because it's ... more efficient? Or do I not make the investment, and in 10 or 20 years I become irrelevant?"

    So, all bankers and stockbrokers might not go the way of the coal miner, telephone operator, or record store clerk. But the hard lessons of other upturned industries may now be relevant to the financial sector in ways they never were before.